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Analysis - Looking 5 days ahead into the weather models
Analysis provided by UKww member Retron
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Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon on Tuesday.
Issued 0506, 2/03/12
Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
A high covers the UK, leading to light winds for most. Tomorrow SSE'lies pick up ahead of a trough to the west, followed by WSW'lies on Sunday as the trough moves across the UK. Monday sees a ridge to the west and a low to the SE, with northerlies for much of the UK as a result.
T+120 synopsis
http://www.wetterzen.../Rtavn12014.png
http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1201.png
http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1201.gif
http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1201.gif
http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rjma1201.gif
The jetstream chart shows a strong and zonal jet over the North Atlantic. The jet splits in two over the UK, with the bulk of the energy going into the northern branch. At the 500hPa level there's an upper ridge over England and Wales with strong WSW'lies to the north. The other runs show an upper ridge from the SW over the UK.
At the surface GFS brings moderate to strong SW'lies with a ridge to the south. MetO has a ridge from the NE and light winds for most, while ECM shows a ridge over England and Wales with southerlies for Scotland and Northern Ireland. GEM is similar to ECM, as is JMA.
Evolution to day 7
ECM shows a trough over eastern areas of the UK on day 6 with NW'lies following behind. There are SW'lies for all on day 7 as pressure builds to the SW.
GFS has SW'lies on day 6 with a high to the SE. The winds become westerlies on day 7 as a trough moves eastwards.
Looking further afield
Strong WSW'lies cover the UK on days 8 to 10 with ECM due to a deep and slow-moving low to the north.
Days 8 to 10 with GFS show high pressure moving over the UK with westerlies easing as a result.
Ensemble analysis
http://www.meteociel...1&ville=Londres
GEFS shows 3 colder days from Sunday, followed by a return to normal or mild conditions.
ECM ensembles
http://www.meteogrou...-tt6-london.gif
ECM also shows a short colder spell from Sunday.
In summary, the middle of the week will see a trough moving eastwards, although by the time it reaches the east and SE of England there may not be much rain associated with it. Thereafter WSW'lies or SW'lies look likely, with temperatures at or above average and with rain for northern and western areas of the UK.
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