Wiseweather August 2010 forecast

Summary: CET temperature 17.2C or 1.0C above average*; rainfall 75% and sunshine 110% 

July was a month that saw a decisive split NW/SE. Whilst the south & east generally saw yet another dry month with above average temperatures & good sunshine amounts for most, the north and the NW especially was near average temperature wise with below average sunshine, especially in N Ireland and was rather wet too in places.  Mean temperatures were about 1.3C degrees above the CET overall, though this masked the warmth in the SE and the cooler NW. It was nevertheless still the 3rd warmest June this decade. After a sunny dry start for many overall the 5th-20th was rather wet (about 135% of average rainfall across England and Wales by the 20th) with a very unsettled wet period mid month in the west and though it remained rather dry overall in the south and east there were a few wetter periods here too around mid month. Rainfall was generally below average across southern & eastern England but higher than average across much of N Ireland & Western & Northern Scotland. Sunshine was around average overall (final sunshine and rainfall figures yet to be ratified).

Soil temperatures were above average generally in the south and east helped by the dry ground, though near average further north and west. Sea temperatures remained rather above average around most parts of the UK, though still near or slightly below average in the Irish Sea and around the SW approaches

Looking now day by day through July. The minor  'heat wave' continued at first in the east with parts of Essex, Kent, Suffolk and Norfolk reaching 27-28C on the 2nd and Gravesend (Kent) in particular reported a max of nearly 30C. However, in contrast to the dry hot weather here parts of the far north & far south west were notably wet, Cardinham (Cornwall) reported 28mm in the 24 hours to 12Z and Lerwick in the far north was very wet too, seeing 33mm in just 12 hours to 12Z. By the 4th, whilst  the south was dry and warm, it was very wet and windy in the north west especially, as a deep low ran close to the W Isles of Scotland. For example, Tyndrum (Highlands) reported 54mm in the 24 hours to 21Z and gusts of up to 71mph were reported in the west of Ireland at Bellmullet and 61mph at Capel Curig ( N Wales) with electricity restored to more than 10,000 homes across Northern Ireland after high winds brought down power lines across Ballymena, Campsie, Downpatrick, Dungannon and Enniskillen. Gravesend (Kent) reported a max of 31.7C on the 9th, the highest UK temperature reported officially in July and 30.9C on the 10th. Santon Downham in Norfolk was close to this figure also on the 10th. However it was chilly in parts of the north, Inverbervie (Highlands) only reached 12.7C on the 10th and 35mm of rain fell at Killowen (Co Down) in Northern Ireland as slow moving fronts moved ENE. July 12th saw an area of severe thunderstorms just graze SE Kent overnight,  Manston saw 22m of rain fall in the 6 hours to 06Z on the 12th. It stayed very wet too in the far NW from Atlantic systems, Lusa on Skye saw 40mm in the 24 hours to 18Z. July 14th-16th saw a very deep low for July produce some very unsettled weather across the UK. Initially on the 15th a strong SW'ly flow with low pressure over Ireland gave very high seas and strong winds overnight on the 14th/15th in the south. A gust of 63kts (72mph) was reported at the Needles on the Isle of Wight and then during the 15th a secondary low ran up the SW approaches and through the Irish Sea deepening quite quickly to be about 985mb near the Isle of Man about 23Z. This gave a lot of heavy rain in places especially west Wales and Northern Ireland where St Angelo saw 50mm in the 24 hours to 21Z on the 15th. Strong winds occurred initially in Devon and Cornwall, Polruan CG lookout  (nr Fowey) gusted to 58kt (67mph) and as the low moved away NE, winds increased on its southern flank below the bent back occlusion and gusted to 84mph at Aberdaron (NW Wales); at Valley (Anglesey) it peaked at 62kts (71mph) which is a record for the location in July. Some localised coastal flooding was reported in Jersey and other parts of the south west & Wales with power losses too for a time in south & west Wales. Wayne Roberts, station manager with Criccieth coastguard, said the high tide at Porthmadog harbour was the biggest he had seen in his 17 years' service with near horizontal spray, causing boats to capsize.  Parts of Wales remained very wet too, July 18th saw Capel Curig in NW Wales reporting 60mm in the 24 hrs to 21Z today as a slow moving front sat over the area running from Norway down to the Azores, separating the warm summery weather to the SE of it (Norwich reached 26C) from the cooler weather in the western Atlantic . This theme remained for the rest of the month really, the 20th saw warm and muggy weather in the east and SE with Cambridge Botanical Gardens reaching 29.7C but it was very wet in the west & north west as low pressure dominated and slow moving fronts sat over the west. Hawarden (Clywd) saw 60mm of rain fall in the 24 hours to 21Z. There was localised flash flooding in parts of NW England with Liverpool especially affected. However on the 22nd Santon Downham (Norfolk) also reported 31mm in the 24 hour period to 21Z. The 23rd saw the chilliest night of July as Kinbrace (Sutherland)  in the far north of Scotland  fell to 0.1C overnight , but by the 26th in contrast, it was very muggy overnight in the south. Lee on Solent (Hants) for example didn't fall below 18.5C & hence likely to be one of the warmest nights this year. 

Forecast summary for August 2010. 

The first week looks likely to start fairly warm and settled for most southern parts during the early part of the week and more especially settled overall in the south with a ridge of high pressure from the Azores bringing some fine quite warm days, despite some early mist & low cloud. However the north and NW especially will see a more WNW’ly flow that will likely bring cooler air across these parts with some showery rain at times though overall amounts look relatively low. The area of high pressure looks set to remain around in the west still dominating through the weekend which looks like being mainly dry and fine more esp in the south and SW and reasonably warm here but perhaps rather cloudier elsewhere especially in the far east and north with some showery rain at times, in a rather cool NNW’ly flow.  
By week two. high pressure may well be dominating the weather for much of the week though the threat of rather more in the way of cloud and some showery rain in the east until midweek but plenty of fine sunny weather about by day and some mist and fog by night. The far north west and north staying a bit more unsettled from midweek onwards and possibly the far south & SW too, where some thundery showers may occur.  In week 3 it seems as if a more W’ly flow will likely dominate across most parts at least for a time as areas of low pressure & fronts run ESE into northern and western areas bringing more unsettled  weather to the north & west whilst the east, south and SE stays generally drier, brighter by day, perhaps more under the influence of high pressure to the south but somewhat cooler fresher weather pushing into all northern parts later on accompanied by some heavier bursts of rain as it does so; the week ending as Atlantic high pressure then moves in again bringing drier brighter fresher weather but reasonably warm sunny weather by day for most. There are no clear indications about the end of August as yet, it will probably be  mainly unsettled as low pressure dominates to the NW, whilst the south & SE (and perhaps the SW too) stays drier, brighter though some rain and showers will likely affect here at times too. There may well be outbreaks of thundery showers or rain moving across the far SE or south at times. Generally more settled in central parts of England with sunny periods with mist by night inland.
Sea temperatures staying above average for most parts, especially around the SE and eastern coasts and parts of the central N Sea; near average in the Irish Sea but perhaps slightly below average in the far north; soil temperatures near or above average for most parts with soil moisture rather below average for most southern and eastern areas and perhaps the north west and central Midlands, nearer average elsewhere. 

Detailed weekly outlooks:

Week 1 1st -7th August looks likely to start by seeing a mainly WNW’ly flow across most parts with an area of high pressure to the SW of the UK, so after some mist & fog patches inland with low cloud patches in the west and SW, sunny periods developing. Some cloud building though by day inland with sea breezes setting in to give a shower or two inland in many places by the afternoon but as a fairly weak warm front pushes east across the NW & north Tuesday it’ll bring cloudier weather ere but tending to peter out as it moves further east. By midweek as the high pressure pulls away to the SW it will allow a mainly light WNW’ly flow to establish across most parts of the UK giving some light showers over the south and west but generally brightening up by day in other areas and on Thursday as a weak cold upper pool sinks down across the UK again staying rather cloudy with some showery rain across parts of Scotland and maybe N Ireland too, giving some quite locally heavy bursts in places. Drier & clearer in the south at first but some showers or showery rain developing here, possibly heavy and slow moving in places whilst more mainly well scattered showers develop in the north. By the end of the week  drier and mainly sunny in western parts though still a lot of cloud in places further east  with some light showery rain about but more settled by Saturday 7th and remaining mainly fine though still some showery rain about at first in the east perhaps , decent sunny periods in central and western areas though.
Temperatures will be near average in most parts through the week though rather warm at times in the south & SE especially and perhaps rather chilly in the far north and NW at times especially later on. Sunshine near average for most parts but perhaps a bit above average in the inland south & rainfall staying below average everywhere.

Week 2 8th-14th August It currently looks as though high pressure out to the west will move further east over the UK so dominating the weather for much of the week. However a weak cold upper pool will remain across the North Sea, at least initially, introducing the threat of rather more in the way of cloud and some showery rain in the east until midweek.. Nevertheless, elsewhere a lot of fine sunny weather about by day and some mist and fog by night. Fronts may affect the far north west at times from midweek onwards and possibly by then the far south & SW too, where some thundery showers may occur.  For most though continuing fine until the end of the week; the weekend less settled as low pressure become established to the north west for a time –and maybe to the SE as well, keeping central parts drier and brighter overall.
 Temperatures generally near or rather above average in most parts, nights should not be chilly, in fact they may well be quite humid in places in the south later; sunshine generally near average for most parts though perhaps above average in the east & the SE, with rainfall rather below average in most parts away from the far NW but locally above average in the areas seeing any showers & storms in the south & SE at times if they occur.   

Week 3 15th-21st August looks like high pressure may move away east to allow a more W’ly flow to dominate across most parts for a time and  further areas of low pressure or fronts may run ESE into northern and western areas midweek bringing more unsettled  weather to the north & west especially whilst the east, south and SE stays generally drier, brighter by day, perhaps more under the influence of high pressure to the south and as a result it may stay quite warm in the east & SE. Cooler fresher weather into all northern parts though accompanied in central areas by some heavier bursts of rain as it does so. By the end of the week high pressure may dominate rather more from the west though bringing drier brighter fresher weather with some mist patches by night but reasonably warm sunny weather by day though cloud will infill in the afternoons and there’ll be sea breezes around coasts.
Temperatures generally near or slightly above average in this period across most parts but perhaps a little below in the north for a time and still generally quite warm in the south & east though nearer average later on. Rainfall  near  average in most northern and western parts but perhaps some locally high totals in any storms in central areas with sunshine near or a little below average in the north though the south, south east & perhaps south west may be slightly above average.  
 
Week 4/5 22nd-31st August Whilst there are no clear signals about the end of August as yet, it will however probably see a mainly unsettled end as low pressure dominates to the NW, whilst the south & SE (and perhaps the SW too) stays drier, brighter though some rain and showers will likely affect here at times too. Whilst the south will undoubtedly see some drier warmer sunnier periods confidence is still low on total rain amounts but there may well be outbreaks of thundery showers or rain moving across the far SE or south at times. Generally more settled in central parts of England with sunny periods with mist by night inland.
 
Temperatures staying near average for most parts, though maybe rather above average at times in the south & SE, rainfall near average for most areas but the far south & SE may see locally above average amounts in any storms but rather below otherwise; Sunshine generally near average on the whole though locally above average in the east.  
 
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Stats compliled with partial use and help of Philip Eden's data at http://www.climate-uk.com/page2.html