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unprecedented co2 time again
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coolhansnl
Posted 25/4/2006 08:07 (#11254)
Subject: unprecedented co2 time again






Location: The Hague, The Netherlands

End of april sees the maximum of the CO2 cycle at Mauna Loa, there seems to be a sensor hiccup, so don't be amazed if you see some alarmist messages early May.

 

We finally have near real time record of CO2 at Mauna Loa

http://www.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccgg/iadv/

press the submit button for a graph

or take this direct link

http://www.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccgg/iadv/iadv_ts.php?currenttype=mlo_co2_ts_obs_03397.png

Set X Axis for All Frames to custom scale

2005.0 2007.0 2 12

press get plot (ok the error message)

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coolhansnl
Posted 9/5/2006 06:21 (#16233 - in reply to #11254)
Subject: Re: unprecedented co2 time again






Location: The Hague, The Netherlands
John McCormick discovered the Mauna Loa hickup on Realclimate:
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/05/ipcc-draft-no...

Is Mauna Loa recording positive feedback?

RealClimate hosts must take a close look at the April 2006 monthly mean carbon dioxide measured at Mauna Loa Observatory.

Link to the following:

http://www.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/

See the 2.10 ppm increase April (topmost mark) over March total. Compare it to the 2004 April over March which is also 2.11 ppm.

I have calculated the April/March differential of the Mauna Loa recordings taken since 1958 and 2006 and 2004 are the largest increases ever recorded.

The Mauna Loa team have recorded annual average increases the past several years that exceed 2.5 ppm and their publicly expressed alarm has been followed by their concern that while the increases might be temporary, continued increases such as these could signal evidence of feedback to the atmosphere.

I follow the Mauna Loa readings closely as well as the real time Satellite derived sea surface temperatures posted by the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee web page and I urge you to view the May 8 satellite image at:

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/sst/archive/06128sst.gif

to view the crimson oceans straddling the equator. Link to the previous images spanning the past 15 days also.

March and April CO2 measurements increase for obvious reasons but a 2.11 ppm increase in one month span cannot be explained by global oil and coal consumption increases. The measurements of February to March would have also reflected a similar CO2 increase.

How to explain the sudden March to April jump in these non-El Nino years of 2004 and 2006?

Start by considering that massive expanse of warm water bubbling surface CO2 into the atmosphere.

Or, someone smarter than me should be able to assure us all it is just one of those unexplainable CO2 bubbles of yet to be studied origin.

Please, give a moment to link to the above and offer some explanation.

John McCormick

Comment by John L. McCormick — 8 May 2006 @ 10:59 pm

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Peter H
Posted 9/5/2006 06:31 (#16238 - in reply to #11254)
Subject: RE: unprecedented co2 time again


Location: Dartmoor, Devon
coolhansnl - 25/4/2006 14:07

End of april sees the maximum of the CO2 cycle at Mauna Loa, there seems to be a sensor hiccup, so don't be amazed if you see some alarmist messages early May.

 

We finally have near real time record of CO2 at Mauna Loa

http://www.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccgg/iadv/

press the submit button for a graph

or take this direct link

http://www.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccgg/iadv/iadv_ts.php?currenttype=mlo_co2_ts_obs_03397.png

Set X Axis for All Frames to custom scale

2005.0 2007.0 2 12

press get plot (ok the error message)

 

Yup, there is a jump, but where's the evidence it's a fault rather than real? 

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Sam Jowett
Posted 9/5/2006 06:49 (#16247 - in reply to #11254)
Subject: Re: unprecedented co2 time again



Executive

Location: Coalville, NW Leics, UK, 161m amsl
You don't think that sounds so sudden as to be unlikely as far as being representative of the global average Peter? That would account for 13.5ppm/yr if it happened every month!
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Peter H
Posted 9/5/2006 07:01 (#16253 - in reply to #16247)
Subject: Re: unprecedented co2 time again


Location: Dartmoor, Devon

Sam Jowett - 9/5/2006 12:49 You don't think that sounds so sudden as to be unlikely as far as being representative of the global average Peter? That would account for 13.5ppm/yr if it happened every month!

Humm, well, if we're not careful, we'll get into another of those threads where, without asking those concerned, some of us draw a conclusion. I'm not going to reach a conclusion without some evidence as to why this rise needs to be treated with suspicion. I don't see that as too much to ask .

 I wonder if we should note April is the month just before the northen hemisphere spring really gets going? Or, perhaps, why the rise in March was small? Or perhaps that over the two months the rise look less extraordinary? Or that the graph over the past few years looks to be painting a consistent picture?

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Sam Jowett
Posted 9/5/2006 07:13 (#16256 - in reply to #11254)
Subject: Re: unprecedented co2 time again



Executive

Location: Coalville, NW Leics, UK, 161m amsl

I'm not suggesting we draw any conclusions or dismiss it Peter, just that we raise our eyebrows and try to work out what would cause such a sudden jump. It would seem logical however that sudden changes in concentration are most likely to be localised events, only adding a small amount overall to the background average. It could be something like N hemisphere spring kicking in as you imply... plant respiration kicking in again at the altitude of the observatory and creating a localised step in CO2 levels.

EDIT: Worth bearing in mind too that that area is rather volcanic too I guess... though spikes in the increase wouldn't be regular and should be quite easily mapped if that were the cause... 

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Peter H
Posted 9/5/2006 07:45 (#16274 - in reply to #16256)
Subject: Re: unprecedented co2 time again


Location: Dartmoor, Devon
Sam Jowett - 9/5/2006 13:13

I'm not suggesting we draw any conclusions or dismiss it Peter, just that we raise our eyebrows and try to work out what would cause such a sudden jump. It would seem logical however that sudden changes in concentration are most likely to be localised events, only adding a small amount overall to the background average. It could be something like N hemisphere spring kicking in as you imply... plant respiration kicking in again at the altitude of the observatory and creating a localised step in CO2 levels.

EDIT: Worth bearing in mind too that that area is rather volcanic too I guess... though spikes in the increase wouldn't be regular and should be quite easily mapped if that were the cause...

Fair enough Sam  

I also wonder if the mild January in the US, the cold late winter in Europe have played a part? But, looking again, perhaps it's the March figure that might be odd more than April?

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coolhansnl
Posted 9/5/2006 07:57 (#16283 - in reply to #11254)
Subject: Re: unprecedented co2 time again






Location: The Hague, The Netherlands
There is a three month lag in CO2 relative to lower troposphere temperature (must update this graph)

Edited by coolhansnl 9/5/2006 07:58
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andre
Posted 9/5/2006 11:01 (#16334 - in reply to #11254)
Subject: Re: unprecedented co2 time again






Location: The Netherlands, -2,3 m msl
That would be a good idea, Hans, updating. There is also a five month lag between the ENSO index and temperature, now where is that graph. Changes in upwelling and subducting water masses may certainly affect the CO2 concentrations.
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coolhansnl
Posted 9/5/2006 16:31 (#16471 - in reply to #11254)
Subject: Re: unprecedented co2 time again






Location: The Hague, The Netherlands

I updated the temperature of graph (see above) CO2 still needs to be added as CDIAC hasn't updated, I must digitise from the NOAA preliminary data 2004-20060509:



Edited by coolhansnl 9/5/2006 16:35
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coolhansnl
Posted 9/5/2006 18:00 (#16508 - in reply to #11254)
Subject: Re: unprecedented co2 time again






Location: The Hague, The Netherlands

done

see also

http://home.casema.nl/errenwijlens/co2/maunaloa_co2_200605.txt



Edited by coolhansnl 9/5/2006 18:10
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andre
Posted 10/5/2006 05:07 (#16586 - in reply to #11254)
Subject: Re: unprecedented co2 time again






Location: The Netherlands, -2,3 m msl
Impressive, what would be the r2? And how would that change when the delay is compensated with shifting the time scales to the best match?

Also (for the Dutch) keep an a eye on http://www.wesselknoops.nl/ and the link "programma" when the new schedule is made up, within a few days, 12 sept 2006 could be interesting.
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coolhansnl
Posted 11/5/2006 15:54 (#17468 - in reply to #11254)
Subject: Re: unprecedented co2 time again






Location: The Hague, The Netherlands

a bit of photoshopping overlaying 2004, 2005 and 2006 yields nothing special, march was anomalously low (so no sensor hickup ) :



Edited by coolhansnl 11/5/2006 15:57
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