[Andy Mayhew]

andre	Posted 19/1/2006 6:32 AM (#319196) Subject: Nenana time again
Microburst Posts: 2478 Location: The Netherlands, -2,3 m msl	So is it? http://www.nenanaakiceclassic.com/BreakupLog.htm I'd say May 5th 16:34 Now I could keep the log here: tr=""> Peter H 27 April 01:00pm crandles 29 April 11:59am Tom Rees 30 April 02:30pm brshort716 1 May 03:30pm Climatekate 2 May 11:12am John C 3 May 09:02am Andre 5 May 04:34pm Coolhansnl 9 May 11:37am Nilequeen 9 May 02:01pm Edited by andre 8/2/2006 9:15 AM
coolhansnl	Posted 19/1/2006 7:07 PM (#319557 - in reply to #319196) Subject: Re: Nenana time again
Lightning Posts: 941 Location: The Hague, The Netherlands	I must update my page first to give a valid number http://home.casema.nl/errenwijlens/co2/nenana.htm
ClimateKate	Posted 20/1/2006 7:53 AM (#319731 - in reply to #319196) Subject: Re: Nenana time again
Cumulonimbus Posts: 57 Location: Durham, UK	May 2nd 11:12am
coolhansnl	Posted 23/1/2006 5:02 PM (#320988 - in reply to #319196) Subject: Re: Nenana time again
Lightning Posts: 941 Location: The Hague, The Netherlands	May 9th 11:37am mods can you make this sticky? background and updated graphs: http://home.casema.nl/errenwijlens/co2/nenana.htm
NileQueen	Posted 28/1/2006 11:41 AM (#322711 - in reply to #320988) Subject: Re: Nenana time again
Multicell Posts: 1605 Location: USA	May 9th 2:01 p.m. Do you have to be on the scene to get the tickets, Hans?
brshort716	Posted 28/1/2006 3:19 PM (#322760 - in reply to #319196) Subject: Re: Nenana time again
Multicell Posts: 1307 Location: Bemidji, Minnesota, USA	I'm afraid to make a guess this early... but here goes: May 1st, 3:30pm
coolhansnl	Posted 28/1/2006 5:20 PM (#322800 - in reply to #322711) Subject: Re: Nenana time again
Lightning Posts: 941 Location: The Hague, The Netherlands	NileQueen - 28/1/2006 5:41 PM May 9th 2:01 p.m. Do you have to be on the scene to get the tickets, Hans? If you want to buy a ticket, fine by me, the odds that you guess the exact minute are steep. So you have at least to buy a ticket for all minutes in your favourite day, if you want to claim the prize. No the winner here will get eternal glory on my website Edited by coolhansnl 28/1/2006 5:21 PM
NileQueen	Posted 29/1/2006 11:44 AM (#322976 - in reply to #322800) Subject: Re: Nenana time again
Multicell Posts: 1605 Location: USA	Can you buy a ticket online is the real question... No the winner here will get eternal glory on my website That's fabulous, but it seems if someone gets it exactly right, they should at least get some chocolate.
martin n	Posted 29/1/2006 11:52 AM (#322980 - in reply to #322976) Subject: Re: Nenana time again
UKww Editor ~ Frouk Posts: 4508 Location: Belfast	Or a Cadbury's Creme Egg...
Tom Rees	Posted 31/1/2006 10:10 AM (#323853 - in reply to #319196) Subject: Re: Nenana time again
Forum Host Posts: 2828 Location: Brighton, UK	April 30, 2:30 PM. Why is everybody going later than last year? Do y'all know something I don't
Peter H	Posted 31/1/2006 10:35 AM (#323864 - in reply to #323853) Subject: Re: Nenana time again
Flash Flood ~ Frouk Location: Dartmoor, Devon	Tom Rees - 31/1/2006 3:10 PM April 30, 2:30 PM. Why is everybody going later than last year? Do y'all know something I don't Herd instinct? Whatever, April 27th 1pm.
NileQueen	Posted 31/1/2006 12:54 PM (#323930 - in reply to #323864) Subject: Re: Nenana time again
Multicell Posts: 1605 Location: USA	Peter H - 31/1/2006 10:35 AM Tom Rees - 31/1/2006 3:10 PM April 30, 2:30 PM. Why is everybody going later than last year? Do y'all know something I don't Herd instinct? Whatever, April 27th 1pm. I think you are trying to be provocative. Such a biased attitude! No there is not really any rhyme or reason to my guesses. I usually ended up close to last on guessing those monthly temperatures (there's a contest somewhere here at UKWW on that), but that could be because mine are uneducated guesses. I've not been to those places in the lineup so can't hazard  a sensible guess there.  Someone may be happier because they beat me on it, though.  I picked May 9th because it was my dad's birthday.  2:01 (but a.m.) is the time when my oldest was born.  I'm guessing this year will be different quite a bit from last year because sometimes unexpected things happen. There's my herd instinct for you Dev.  I see you picked a date closer to Tom than the rest of the picks. Are you flocking? Edited by NileQueen 31/1/2006 12:58 PM
brshort716	Posted 6/2/2006 9:32 PM (#326416 - in reply to #319196) Subject: Re: Nenana time again
Multicell Posts: 1307 Location: Bemidji, Minnesota, USA	Something different? It's been colder and less snowy in Fairbanks this winter. Much colder, in fact, than last winter. I know from experience (ice out dates on lakes in our area) that cold, snowless winters create the thickest ice and thus the latest ice-out dates. I venture to guess that March and April will be above average in Fairbanks, but because of the cold in October, November, and January, the ice is nice and thick. But really, it all comes down to when the spring warm up comes... and a little luck. I also predict that ice jams will be worse than average this year in Alaska, causing floods.. and that the Weather Channel will break from it's 24/7 coverage of the east coast for a 2 minute piece on Alaska flooding. Edited by brshort716 6/2/2006 9:37 PM
coolhansnl	Posted 7/2/2006 7:33 AM (#326495 - in reply to #326416) Subject: Re: Nenana time again
Lightning Posts: 941 Location: The Hague, The Netherlands	Here speaks last year's winner!
John C	Posted 7/2/2006 8:19 AM (#326513 - in reply to #319196) Subject: RE: Nenana time again
Lightning Posts: 577 Location: Canada	I'll go for May 3, 9:02 am!
crandles	Posted 7/2/2006 12:29 PM (#326615 - in reply to #319196) Subject: Re: Nenana time again
Towering Cumulus Posts: 41 Location: N. Wales	I'll take April 29 11:59 am
Dave W	Posted 21/2/2006 5:53 PM (#332025 - in reply to #319196) Subject: RE: Nenana time again
Executive Location: Brighton, E Sussex	April 28th 1.15pm
brshort716	Posted 21/3/2006 5:41 AM (#343878 - in reply to #319196) Subject: Re: Nenana time again
Multicell Posts: 1307 Location: Bemidji, Minnesota, USA	Well, while April will be the big month determining when the ice goes, March certainly hasn't been a walk in the park. Near record cold has strangled Fairbanks over the past week with temperatures reach around 12*C below normal. Juneau saw record lows 6 nights in a row in the southeast, and Barrow is still quite chilly. A big reversal is on the way with much warmer temperatures around 0-1*C during the day in Fairbanks with -15*C or so at night before cooling off a bit again later in the forecast period. While this will stop further formation of ice on the river and help it to thin out a bit, average highs for this time of year are approaching 0*C and the way it looks, they may be in for a cold April.. which means even my prediction could be blown out of the water, so to say.
coolhansnl	Posted 22/3/2006 9:52 AM (#344420 - in reply to #319196) Subject: Re: Nenana time again
Lightning Posts: 941 Location: The Hague, The Netherlands	see the fairbanks yoyo here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/temperature/tn70261_1yr.gif

[brshort716]

I think the ice will definitely go in May this year. It's been cold and snowy in Fairbanks, and the next 2 weeks look to be below average with temperatures not surpassing 45*F (7*C) with night temperatures around -5 to -10*C. I guess we'll see!

[brshort716]

The current conditions on the Tanana River are as follows:
The Tanana River was frozen solid by the end of October 2005. We begin taking ice measurements in January of each year. The first measurement taken on January 4th 2006 was 43 inches. We take one measurements weekly until at which time we set the Tripod up on the river, during our annual celebration "Tripod Weekend" (which is always held the 1st weekend in March). After the tripod has been assembled on the river, we begin taking measurements twice a week. The measurements will be taken on Mondays & Thursdays for 2006. You can click on the Ice Measurement link for ice measurements taken since 1989.

The temperature is still cooling off in the evenings anywhere between 10 and 20 degrees. During the day, it has been between 30 and 40 degrees. The 5 day forecast as of April 17th, shows the temperature highs will be 48 degrees and the lows, only 22 degrees, and possible snow flurries!!! The snow on top of the ice is melting during the day and refreezing in the evenings, creating thicker ice. Until we see warmer temperatures, we will not see many changes in the ice. The ice is solid from bank to bank. There is no open water anywhere to be seen. At this point, it looks as though we are going to have a late breakup!!

[brshort716]

The 10 day forecast calls for below normal temperatures with highs from the upper 30s to mid 40s with lows from 15 to 25*F. Average for the period is 46-50*F for highs and 22-26 for lows.

A lack of warmups may in fact push the breakup date back into May quite a bit.

[NileQueen]

Okay so it's looking good for my guess. :)

[coolhansnl]

Here is nenana current temperature:

 

[andre]

Well, it's not going to be early, they think:

http://www.nenanaaki...Conditions.html

Quote

The 5 day forecast as of April 20th, shows the temperature highs will be 50 degrees and the lows, only 15 degrees, and cloudy for the most part. The snow on top of the ice is melting during the day and refreezing in the evenings, creating thicker ice. Until we see warmer temperatures, we will not see many changes in the ice. The ice is solid from bank to bank and holding firm. There is no open water anywhere to be seen. At this point, it looks as though we are going to have a late breakup.

[andre]

Quote

The Nenana river ice went out sometime after 8:00 pm Monday April 24th. It is usually 7 - 10 days after the Nenana river ice goes out, that the Tanana river ice moves out. The Nenana river water is cutting into the Tanana river ice, and there is water on the south bank about a 1/2 mile down river from the mouth of the Nenana river. The tripod is still holding firm in the ice, we are beginning to see signs of the ice rotting. The anchor ice is still holding firm. Up river approximately 1 mile, there is water on the north bank of the river. At the end of the airport on the south bank, there is also some water showing. Until we see warmer temperatures, we will not see many changes in the ice. The ice is remains solid from bank to bank and holding firm. We are starting to see more water on top of the ice, and the ice is very soft. We are no longer taking ice measurements due to the condition of the ice. At this point, it looks as though breakup will be in May!!

.

Would that be between 4 and 10 may?

[brshort716]

Oh well, there's always next year! :)

[coolhansnl]

It's May !!

Here are the Nenana May datata

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/histGraphAll?day=16&year=2006&month=5&ID=PANN&type=1

[andre]

Quote

Up river approximately 300 feet there is alot of open water. We are starting to see more holes in the ice, and the ice is very soft. We are no longer taking ice measurements due to the condition of the ice. We think the ice will be going out today sometime!!

However it could hold out another day!!

Make it two that's May day. But it didn't

And winner is ..........Climatekate.

[Peter H]

Quote

andre - 3/5/2006 19:58

Quote

Up river approximately 300 feet there is alot of open water. We are starting to see more holes in the ice, and the ice is very soft. We are no longer taking ice measurements due to the condition of the ice. We think the ice will be going out today sometime!!

 

However it could hold out another day!!

 

Make it two that's May day. But it didn't

 

And winner is ..........Climatekate.

Well done CK! I was only about 1% of a year out :%

[ClimateKate]

Thank you. And next I shall be turning my psychic skills to...AGW - proven or not 666

[coolhansnl]

A new year, new bets

I stick to my last value
Coolhansnl: 9 May 2007 11:37am

[andre]

So do I,

5 May 04:34pm

[snow hope]

2nd May 1544

[coolhansnl]

Nenana April 2007 measurements

[ClimateKate]

I'll go for May 12th 11.58am

[coolhansnl]

19 april update

Quote

The current temperature highs are between 40 and 50 degrees during the day. During the evening it is cooling down to around 25 to 32 degrees. During the day the ice and snow on top of the ice are melting. When it cools off in the eveings, the water refreezes. There is a lot of water on top of the ice on the banks. We are starting to see signs of the ice rotting between the Tripod and the river bank. We expect the Nenana River to go out sometime within the next couple of days. The Nenana river is located 1/4 mile down river from where the Tripod is sitting on the Tanana River. The Tanana River usually goes out about a week to 10 days after the Nenana River. If the Nenana River goes out within the next couple of days the Tanana is sure to follow. Both rivers are very low, a good rain would definately help move the ice out.

http://www.nenanaaki...Conditions.html

[coolhansnl]

Nenana Ice Classic 2007

The Tanana River officially went out on

April 27 at 3:47 P.M. Alaska Standard Time.

The jackpot is $303,272.00

http://www.nenanaakiceclassic.com/