[ldavidcooke]

Hey Niall,

Actially, this would make an excellent topic for a non-sticky thread. I believe I miscued by musing the variation in synoptics as they relate to this thread and did not specify that this discussion should relate to this thread.

(As an out-take, yes I have run the local data. Using Durham's near 80yrs of data and Winston- Salems speckeled long run data sets. Using the publicly adjusted data there is a 0.7C creep upwards of the average over the last 40yrs. The daily avg. change in High are roughly +1.2C and the nightly Low values about +0.3C using the USHCN.

As to the raw data I have not persued that as yet; due to any change to the avg. Low above 0.3C being limited to the last 35yrs, hence AGW as described via 150yrs of GHGs, does not fit our local or even national patterns. I also use a modified analysis, since I am concerned about Infra-Red Radiation Emissions (Long Wave Upwelling), I look at the slope of the change between the current days High and the following mornings Low (in my avg. anal.) as that indicates the heat energy persistance or residency.

The main issue as I see it, is that if the daily insolation (heat energy) is not radiated away it generally convects/advects away. Hence, local avg. readings are not much value. Only by tracking the daily Lows year over year tell us of any change or how much "systemic" (AKA global atmospheric) heat is being trapped locally. (It affects the daily starting temperature, though differently for different enviros. on land; but, not so at sea. There the starting temperatures are primarily controlled by latitude, sun, humidity and wind.) Hence, calculate your Lows in reference with your local cloud data, humidity and local windspeed/direction and maybe like I saw, even a 0.3C rise since 1970 can be accounted for, IMHO. (Note: I posted my Graphs over in the Climate D&A about 3ya.))

If you would like to discuss further the CET and Euro data lets open a new post and reserve this one for Nenana Time.

Cheers!
Dave

[ldavidcooke]

Hey All,

I know it may be a bit early, though it should be interesting to watch this again this year. The funny thing is the pattern should be very unusual this year with the odd weather this Winter. Maybe we can even talk some of the old crew to jump in again. Well, here is your chance to test your predictive skills, take a look at the data this April and submit your best guess by the 15th. Good Luck!

[ldavidcooke]

Hey All,

As this makes it near my 11th anniversary, I'm going with 4 May at 1400. (Though were I betting I would not choose any earlier then 9 May nor later then 15 May this year. What with the lower river not going out yet, nor any surface melt along with Thurdays 25 Apr. measure of 51", I will be surprised if it went out at the former date or not endured several days past the later.)

[andre]

Looks that you didn't win that one, David,

Apparantly it's now on it's way to pass the third latest break up today and tomorrow the second. The first place, 20 May is still a long way but it would be cool if that was broken Pun intended

[ldavidcooke]

Hey Andre,

Great to see Poo for a change! Hard to believe in this era of record atmospheric warming potential we should see such a persistence of Winter. BTW did you see the latest NASA image wrt desert dust from Argentina covering the Antarctic Peninsula (a bit of dark aerosol, a bit of sun and we have a bit of ice melt...).

Glad to see the Nenana thread, I figured after the loss of the old crew it would die never to rise again..., its nice to see it again, just goes to show things change and yet remain the same.

[andre]

ldavidcooke, on 15 May 2013 - 23:15, said:

Hey Andre,

Great to see Poo for a change! Hard to believe in this era of record atmospheric warming potential we should see such a persistence of Winter. BTW did you see the latest NASA image wrt desert dust from Argentina covering the Antarctic Peninsula (a bit of dark aerosol, a bit of sun and we have a bit of ice melt...).

Glad to see the Nenana thread, I figured after the loss of the old crew it would die never to rise again..., its nice to see it again, just goes to show things change and yet remain the same.

Good to see you too David. I may try to find time to hang around some more. Somehow it's hard to keep some forums alive.

Meanwhile, less than one hour til H-hour






Source: http://www.nenanaakiceclassic.com/

[andre]

Of course that last hour was easy and we're now past the old record of 1964 at 11.41am Alaskan time, still waiting for it to go out.

Incidentely a famous quote:

The Nenana Ice Classic is a pretty good proxy for climate change in the 20th century.

[ldavidcooke]

Hey Andre,

Just remember it's no fair putting the tripod on top of a submerged tree stump or wooden raft... (ROTFLMAO!) Have a great evening can't wait to see the spin on this one.

(I figure it will all come down to aerosol (ash/sulfate) shading due to accellerated Chinese Soft Coal combustion... At least, we get a better measure of the sensitivity values, based on optical depth at the different wave-lengths, this time...)