[John Mason]

Take a deep breath and then click here:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/6228765.stm

Forecast based on Hadley Centre model output. Contributing factors are greenhouse gases & El Nino.

"The Hadley Centre has been issuing the annual forecast for the past seven years and says it has just a 0.06C margin of error."

So there you go folks. 2007 is the "warmest since records sorry forecasts began". Debate politely!

Cheers - John 

 

[Dave W]

Not again... !! Id be very surprised to see this year warmer than the last in the UK.

[Dave K]

They're braver than I am - that's all I'm going to say.

[John Mason]

I've stickied this thread so it'll be easy to return to in just under 12 months time for a review  ;)

Cheers - John 

[Peter H]

Well, the year is off to the right kind of start here isn't it :( And our 12 consecutive months record is also pretty certain to go before the spring.

Given EN, the ever upwards rise in ghg's and the rest I'd be much happier betting it will be record breaking warm globally than it wont, but we'll see.

 

[PaulKn]

Well, most years almost make it into the warmest year globally (note, this is what this forecast is about, not just the UK) these days, and the warming caused by El Nino should boost it...I would think there is a fair chance of this happening.

[Miss Dot Com]

Would it be unusual to have another warmer year though? If last year was the warmest on record it might take some time become cooler again? It may not have even peaked yet perhaps?

[Dan G]

Perfectly reasonable forecast.

[Les]

HI All,
Why should 2007 be cooler than last year? After all we've added an other 20 billion tonnes of CO2 to the atmosphere in 2006. :s
Regards Les.

[Peter H]

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Martin North - 4/1/2007 10:38

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PaulKn - 4/1/2007 09:22 Well, most years almost make it into the warmest year globally (note, this is what this forecast is about, not just the UK) these days, and the warming caused by El Nino should boost it...I would think there is a fair chance of this happening.

Ah...but including the ENSO effects doesn't make it a fair reflection of so called global warming. 1998 (the previous warmest year globally) was an ENSO too! [hmmm]

Nope, you've lost me. An EN, well so what? Are we to exclude warm years because they're warm next? 

Or is this the old 'EN is 100% natural and I'm going to dismiss the idea it might now contain an anthropogenic component' line? Why? It makes no sense to me to have a global energy balance change that doesn't effect the Pacific at all?

[PaulKn]

Well, let's leave the post mortems until this time next year!

[Dave K]

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Martin North - 4/1/2007 09:57

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Peter H - 4/1/2007 09:50

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Martin North - 4/1/2007 10:38

Quote

PaulKn - 4/1/2007 09:22 Well, most years almost make it into the warmest year globally (note, this is what this forecast is about, not just the UK) these days, and the warming caused by El Nino should boost it...I would think there is a fair chance of this happening.

Ah...but including the ENSO effects doesn't make it a fair reflection of so called global warming. 1998 (the previous warmest year globally) was an ENSO too! [hmmm]

Nope, you've lost me. An EN, well so what? Are we to exclude warm years because they're warm next? 

Or is this the old 'EN is 100% natural and I'm going to dismiss the idea it might now contain an anthropogenic component' line? Why? It makes no sense to me to have a global energy balance change that doesn't effect the Pacific at all?

Stop being so obnoxious!

I'm not saying anything like that Peter! I'm saying the last warmest recorded year was an ENSO year...and if this one turns out to be same...it's a bit more than coincidence.

??? WRT being "obnoxious" Peter has a long way to go to match some others. I think that word is uncalled for.

[Peter H]

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Martin North - 4/1/2007 10:57

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Peter H - 4/1/2007 09:50

Quote

Martin North - 4/1/2007 10:38

Quote

PaulKn - 4/1/2007 09:22 Well, most years almost make it into the warmest year globally (note, this is what this forecast is about, not just the UK) these days, and the warming caused by El Nino should boost it...I would think there is a fair chance of this happening.

Ah...but including the ENSO effects doesn't make it a fair reflection of so called global warming. 1998 (the previous warmest year globally) was an ENSO too! [hmmm]

Nope, you've lost me. An EN, well so what? Are we to exclude warm years because they're warm next?

Or is this the old 'EN is 100% natural and I'm going to dismiss the idea it might now contain an anthropogenic component' line? Why? It makes no sense to me to have a global energy balance change that doesn't effect the Pacific at all?

Stop being so obnoxious! I'm not saying anything like that Peter! I'm saying the last warmest recorded year was an ENSO year...and if this one turns out to be same...it's a bit more than coincidence.

EN years tend to be warm - so indeed no coincidence. What wouldn't be a coincidence would be if this year is warmer than 1998 but with what might indeed be a lesser EN. But, it's all twelve months away :% and we're speculating.

Just trying to clear up the (imo wrong) assumption that EN's are by definition 100% natural.

[skanky]

It's worth remembering that the GISS dataset has 2005 as the warmest year.
The ENSO years will be warmer as they up the global atmospheric temperature by releasing oceanic-stored heat - heat absorbed from the atmosphere. They will add an additional anomally to non-ENSO years, but that doesn't invalidate their use in the temperature series - there are plenty of processes that affect the year on year temperature (and the use of calendar years is somewhat arbitrary - ENSO events tend to span the boundary). If global warming wasn't pushing the "base" temperature up, then it would be likely that a previous El Nino year would likely be the record.

However, for those who don't see this point, it wouldn't be too difficult to plot a series ignoring El Nino years and one just of El Nino years. In the former 1005 would be the hottest, in the latter, 1998 would be the hottest.

[Sam Jowett]

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Peter H - 4/1/2007 10:07

Just trying to clear up the (imo wrong) assumption that EN's are by definition 100% natural.

ENSO is completely natural isn't it? Or are you suggesting the ocean temperature changes occur as a result of mans activities Peter?
The background warming (with an anthropogenic influence) plus the El Nino will likely make it a pretty warm year though, so the forecast probably won't be that far out imo...