: 2007 to be 'warmest on record' -

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2007 to be 'warmest on record'

#201 User is offline   doctormog 

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PaulKn - 26/9/2007 17:26 They're not wrong - they gave a 60% chance not a 100% chance!

Surely in that case Paul such a forecast can never be wrong? If we're talking absolutes i.e. an El Nino or not then a probability forecast is just an indicator of what they think will happen rather than an actual forecast? Put another way no such forecast can ever be claimed as right (or indeed wrong) as regardless of the outcome one could say it was "accurate"?


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#202 User is offline   Henry Davenport 

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doctormog - 27/9/2007 16:13

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PaulKn - 26/9/2007 17:26 They're not wrong - they gave a 60% chance not a 100% chance!

Surely in that case Paul such a forecast can never be wrong? If we're talking absolutes i.e. an El Nino or not then a probability forecast is just an indicator of what they think will happen rather than an actual forecast? Put another way no such forecast can ever be claimed as right (or indeed wrong) as regardless of the outcome one could say it was "accurate"?

The primary concern when writing such a forecast (a seasonal forecast) is not to strive to couch it in such terms that it can be awarded a simple 'right' or 'wrong' mark with hindsight. It is merely guidance as to most likely, probable or possible scenarios. Verifiable and verified daily forecasts are a different matter.
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