[Jonathan Powell]

Hi All,

Thought it wise to get the first salvo in, although, at the time of being questioned by the Express, this really did look a distinct possibility and to some extent, still does.

Granted, it was only 2% of the actual over all statistical readout, right on the extreme far edge of foreecasts, as the other 298 models saw a less severe look to matters, however, I couldn't ignore the 2%. It would have been a Mr Fish incident, the storms that weren't supposed to but actually did.

I didn't, (to the best of my knowledge), call it a "beast" either.

As for Piers, well, he might be right, but I don't think it's going to sink that far south.

All models pointed toward disruption, I think I've said enough for now, I'll get me coat

Jonathan

:s

[Dave W]

You couldnt ignore the 2%?! For goodness sake man!

[Dave W]

Huge storm to batter Britain

06/01/07

By Jo Macfarlane

KILLER storms are set to rip into Britain again next week, weather experts warned last night.

Gales of 80mph and torrential rain will sweep across the country in what meteorologists called “a direct hit”.

Conditions will be similar to those which generated the freak tornado that tore through London last month and destroyed hundreds of homes.

Experts said the destructive winds will begin building from Wednesday, gusting across England and Wales and picking up speed towards the weekend.

By Saturday the Atlantic system, described as a “beast” by one forecaster, will see heavy rain and flooding hit areas still trying to recover from the devastating impact of November’s and December’s storms.

Unlike the storm which brought New Year chaos, this weather front will strike almost all the country, with only the eastern coastal areas escaping the worst of the weather.

Jonathan Powell, a senior long-range forecaster at Positive Weather Solutions, said: “We expect rain and strong winds to return by late next week.

“From Friday onwards, heavy rain is expected, causing localised flooding, and we forecast a sustained period of gale-force winds, harbouring the potential to cause structural damage.

“The most significant rainfall will be on Sunday and Monday, but the winds could last between five and seven days.”

He added that while the New Year storm – in which three people died – moved away to the north, this latest is on course to score a direct hit on most of England and Wales and could be more severe than the gale which caused damage in November.

He also warned that it could even generate more tornadoes. “It’s the same sort of weird weather mix, and could create those kind of conditions,” he said.

Experts said tornadoes were most likely to form at sea off Portsmouth and Plymouth. But Mr Powell said he could not rule out another twister causing chaos over a residential area.

The Met Office said they were monitoring the latest situation very carefully and would be issuing warnings if more potentially deadly winds threatened the country.

A spokesman said: “Early next week we’ll see some strong winds coming through with severe gales, especially in exposed areas.”

Temperatures are expected to remain very mild for the time of year at up to 54F in the South and 44F in the far North.

A PA Weathercentre spokesman said: “Over the next 10 days the weather will be smashing in from the Atlantic.

“So we’ll keep the wind and rain and there will be more flood problems in the North and West in particular. Initially, winds won’t be quite as strong as in the New Year but there are hints that some stronger winds are likely as the storm progresses.

“It’s difficult to say what sort of damage it could do, but we’re expecting gusts of up to 80mph.”

Joe Giacomelli at the Environment Agency said there were 16 flood watches in place across England and Wales, and many rivers were very sensitive to more rainfall.

Not all forecasters, however, agreed that the storm would hit Britain. They predicted the threat of blizzards instead.

Piers Corbyn, a long-range forecaster at Weather Action who predicted the New Year chaos, said he still expected the weather front to track further south.

This would allow an Arctic blast to bring freezing temperatures and up to six inches of snow across the whole country.

“One can never be sure of timing, but we think the winds will drift south towards the continent,” he said.

“Eastern winds will bring freezing conditions, with heavy snowfall. It will be the worst winter weather of the season so far.

“There is intense activity on the weather maps, but the path of the storm will result in either more wind and rain or Arctic conditions.”

[Dave W]

Experts said tornadoes were most likely to form at sea off Portsmouth and Plymouth.

Wow now that is very accuate forecasting!

[Lightning Hunter]

So we're all going to die from wind or the entire country will be under exactly 6 inches of snow. At least it won't be boring! :)

[jcdorset]

http://www.express.c...l.html?sku=1005

What a load of codswallop! Surely Daily Express readers are getting fed up with wild predictions not coming true??

And predicting where tornadoes will hit 7 days away!?! it's almost impossible just 24 hours away. Silly people!

Saying that, now i've posted this Plymout and Portsmouth will both get tornadoes and the storm will be a 1987!

I guess i can still hope that Piers is right (would be a miracle) and that we get some snow!

[Uskys]

Thanks for explaining Jonathon........ you don't need to get your coat!! lol . A forecast is just that... no forecast is 100% accurate and should never be thought so. Even the remotest possibilities should be forecast by those brave enough to do so....
..........There was that classic forecast in 1979 ( i think ) of a rain band moving in from the South west, the bbc forecast at 18z the the rain would move steadily eastwards and would clear my region (devon) around midnight. at 18:30 it rained for 30mins and froze upon contact with surfaces, roads immediatley became impassable even on foot, then at 19z it started snowing and didn't stop until 04z the next day and the strong winds ( not forecast either ) created 20' drifts. i watched all the forecasts earlier that week and there was only mild weather in the offing. ... the chance of snow that night might have been slight too................ shame that wasn't considered better in hindsight.

[John Hill]

Flaming Nora! There at it again... I think they are making a joke out of every meteorologist! Im thinking about starting up a anti-weather story petition!!!!!!!!!

[Andy Mayhew]

Well to be fair, it does look like being pretty stormy next weekend (atm) - as it often is in mid January. If you take out all the superlatives added by overzealous journalists, and the implication that England and Wales will be worse hit, it's a reasonable assessment of the coming week's perfectly normal weather ....

[Dave W]

A forecast is just that... no forecast is 100% accurate and should never be thought so. Even the remotest possibilities should be forecast by those brave enough to do so.... 

Must say I do strongly disagree here, theres no point IMO forecasting a storm that looks unlikely to occur ESPECIALLY to a paper like the Express, given its poor record. If we did that we would forever be saying that there's a chance of severe storms and theyd not occur, so the general public's perception of forecasters per se would go down and down..

[Dave W]

There is still some energy in the waters of the English Channel...it has not totally cooled down yet...

You would expect this...

It was the particular pinpointing of Plymouth and Portsmouth that i am commenting on though.

[Dave W]

Thanks Martin, done [y]

[JanetB138]

Saw it splashed over the Daily Express this morning and on sky news, a few comments were made before moving on, the Daily Express is becoming a joke I would like to know who  is hyping them up with this crap.

[John Hill]

When i was 13 , 14 i used to get excited with these sorts of stories and then nothing used to happen! Now i tend to ignore them and i think the Daily Express themselves are losing their own credability (if they ever had any!)

[Uskys]

Quote

Dave W - 6/1/2007 11:34

A forecast is just that... no forecast is 100% accurate and should never be thought so. Even the remotest possibilities should be forecast by those brave enough to do so.... 

Must say I do strongly disagree here, theres no point IMO forecasting a storm that looks unlikely to occur ESPECIALLY to a paper like the Express, given its poor record. If we did that we would forever be saying that there's a chance of severe storms and theyd not occur, so the general public's perception of forecasters per se would go down and down..

I'm interested in weather Dave, not the psychology of the british public and their perceptions. :) ..... if 'joe public' decide a forecast is definatley going to happen then they are a bit silly. and, if the papers decide to run a forecast as a story, thats in my interest.....that of the weather, and i would like more of them .

Reading all the model chat comments its refreashing to see the remotest possibilities discussed, but the phrase 'f1 fantasy land' makes any comments about +320hrs get ridiculed, as does it seem when meteorologists do too!!

However , i don't have a vested interest in forecasts...unless i pop down the betting shop lol

[Dave W]

I was talking about general forecasting to the media not specific discussion here though.