[PaulKn]

Won't be far off the record!

[Dave W]

Be fascinating if this followed by a record breaking cold February wont it.. will need a rather large pattern change to do it.

[summer '85]

Quote

Dave W - 28/1/2007 09:43 Be fascinating if this followed by a record breaking cold February wont it.. will need a rather large pattern change to do it.

Can't see it, the largest drop between January and February is 5C in 1983. A record breaking cold February would require a CET of -2.0

I would say there is a pretty reasonable chance that March will be colder than January.

7.5  1916
7.3  1796, 1921
7.1  1834
6.9  1733
6.8  1975
6.7  1983
6.6  1898
6.5  1686, 1884, 1990

[Dave W]

Yes, my remark was actually slightly tongue in cheek Im afraid Kevin :)

[summer '85]

Februarys that were at least 2C cooler than the previous January 

1994 5.3  3.2
1986 3.5  -1.1
1983 6.7 1.7
1975 6.8 4.4
1969 5.5 1.0
1968 4.4 1.9
1956 3.6 -0.2
1947 2.2 -1.9
1944 5.8 3.5
1932 6.3 2.9
1930 5.6 2.5
1921 7.3 4.8
1916 7.5 3.8
1906 5.3 3.1
1902 4.7 1.5
1890 5.7 3.1
1875 6.4 2.3
1873 5.2 1.8
1855 2.4 -1.7
1853 5.1 0.6
1845 3.2 0.9
1844 3.8 1.6
1843 4.0 1.9
1804 5.8 2.9
1796 7.3 4.7
1785 3.4 0.4
1782 5.2 1.9
1765 4.8 0.4
1751 4.0 1.5
1736 6.4 3.1
1711 5.0 2.0
1682 6.0 2.0

-----------------------------------------------------

 

An outside chance that April could be colder than January. It has never happened but January and April have been the same value

1696  5.5
1782  5.2

A cold April but not ridiculously cold would be required , so it is within the bounds of possibilty.

The closest approach in recent years was in 1983: Jan 6.7, Apr 6.8

[Chris Alder]

Even if the CET fell by 2C in Feb we could still end up with a mild month!

[PaulKn]

which it probably won't do!

[alisonmorrish]

What are the warmest Januarys ever recorded and how close are we to breaking the record?

[Dave K]

Should be comfortably inside the top 10 and maybe the top 5 mild Januaries. 1916 was the warmest with 7.5 ºC

[snowuse]

TBH we'd need a miracle and a major pattern change for even an average Feb, looks like it could be a record breaking WINTER. I just hope we dn't pay for it with a cold spring!

[Chris Alder]

Quote

snowuse - 29/1/2007 21:50 TBH we'd need a miracle and a major pattern change for even an average Feb, looks like it could be a record breaking WINTER. I just hope we dn't pay for it with a cold spring!

Or even worse a cold summer:o xx(

[BUTTERFLY]

My main comments are on the literacy and numeracy displayed by 1 or 2 people:

(a) "Could of" instead of "could have"
(b) Since the last extremely mild January was in 1921, 2007 may be the mildest in 86, not 85 years.

Anyway, last weeks cold spell has brought the mean down substantially, and in any case some regions are not especially mild, eg +0.7 deg. C. above average in North Scotland, and +1.6 deg. C. in Northern Ireland up to 25th (see http://www.climate-uk.com/page2.html)

[snow hope]

Quote

BUTTERFLY - 29/1/2007 21:54

My main comments are on the literacy and numeracy displayed by 1 or 2 people:

(a) "Could of" instead of "could have"
(b) Since the last extremely mild January was in 1921, 2007 may be the mildest in 86, not 85 years.

Anyway, last weeks cold spell has brought the mean down substantially, and in any case some regions are not especially mild, eg +0.7 deg. C. above average in North Scotland, and +1.6 deg. C. in Northern Ireland up to 25th (see http://www.climate-uk.com/page2.html)

Well this is a meteorology forum not an english forum. :)

But since you brought the subject up, can I point out four corrections to your post Ian. ;)

"Anyway, last week's cold spell has brought the mean down substantially and in any case some regions are not especially mild, e.g. +0.7 deg. C. above average in North Scotland and +1.6 deg. C. in Northern Ireland up to the 25th"

Just said in jest Ian. :)

[PaulKn]

I would argue that a ; would be more appropriate after the word 'substantially'! ;)

[StratoQ]

Oops Ian. Remember: people in glasshouses shouldn't throw stones! Punctuality/grammar is a tricky one. Sometimes it bugs me too but usually I just get over it. And before anyone else jumps in, you should have an apostrophe in there in "last weeks cold spell"!

Anyway I take your comment about the time period since a milder Jan.With me, Jan 1989 was milder.

 

 

[snow hope]

Yep, would go with that Paul - good call. :)

[BUTTERFLY]

I am waiting for the "4 corrections" to my post above. Someone else suggested the use of a semi-colon and an apostophre, which by my calculation makes 2, but I have an answer for both of these.

I disagree with the need for a semi-colon after "substantially" as a semi-colon generally means a pause before the next bit, which is almost like a new sentence. I seem to remember something like "Never begin a sentence with a preposition" (such as "And").

Yes I deliberately left out the apostrophes as this for some reason seems to be the accepted fashion nowadays.

Punctuality refers to time-keeping (for appointments); I think you mean "punctuation".

I am not pedant, and don't mind the odd typing error and spelling mistake, etc. However I have seen "could of" in 2 many E-mails (not just on UK Weatherworld) and similar mistakes and think that the Internet has not exactly helped the spread of literacy. Clear English helps clear thinking.

Enough of this controversy and lets get back to weather discussion. I can certainly remember more forward seasons than this one; the only sign of spring here in North Armagh is the continued growth of grass, but this has been a feature of most recent winters that no-one thinks it remarkable any more.

[Rupert Wood]

I agree with you Butterfly - "could of" really grates on the nerves, but you see it a lot these days.

[snowuse]

:D

Quote

Chris Alder - 29/1/2007 21:35

Quote

snowuse - 29/1/2007 21:50 TBH we'd need a miracle and a major pattern change for even an average Feb, looks like it could be a record breaking WINTER. I just hope we dn't pay for it with a cold spring!

Or even worse a cold summer:o xx(

 

I agree Chris, itd then seem like one long season LOL :s  Plus after all the work I've done at the gym I'd not get to show it off in the summer :D

[PaulKn]

Ian - don't take it all so seriously! ;)