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Heads up for Moderate Risk for today. Slight Risk across the N High Plains and well into Canada...
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2007
VALID 161630Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL INTO SERN MT...NERN WY
AND NWRN SD...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE NRN
ROCKIES AND THE NRN PLAINS...
...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
ACTIVE AFTERNOON/EVENING ON TAP FOR MUCH OF MT INTO NERN WY/WRN SD.
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL BE QUITE STRONG TODAY UNDER CLEAR SKIES AHEAD
OF WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS
THE NRN ROCKIES LATE IN THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION...WEAK SURFACE LOW
ANALYZED OVER SERN WY AT 15Z IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP NWWD AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE INTO N-CENTRAL WY/SWRN MT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
ALLOW ESELY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO INCREASE NORTH OF WARM FRONT CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW CENTER ESEWD ACROSS SRN SD...WITH THIS FRONT
LIFTING NWD INTO SRN MT THIS AFTERNOON. ONGOING STRONG/MARGINALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WRN SD ARE ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING
LEAD IMPULSE NOW MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH AND SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THIS
OCCURS...RICHER SURFACE MOISTURE NOW OVER SRN SD WILL BE ALLOWED TO
ADVECT NWWD TOWARDS THE TRI-STATE REGION OF WY/MT/SD...WITH MID 50F
SURFACE DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL MT. NAM AND
NAMKF FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR GTF AND LWT INDICATE MLCAPE AROUND
1500 J/KG WITH VERY LITTLE CINH BY 21Z USING 70F/55F SURFACE
CONDITIONS.
AS DEEP ASCENT ALONG NOSE OF ENHANCED WLY MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH APPROACHING IMPULSE BEGINS SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE RAPIDLY DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON OVER WRN/CENTRAL MT AND NCENTRAL/NERN WY. FORECAST
HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR SPLITTING SUPERCELLS INTO CENTRAL MT THROUGH
THE EVENING...ENHANCING POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE STRONGEST INTO NERN WY/SERN
MT/NWRN SD LATE TODAY GIVEN PROXIMITY TO STRONGER SLY H85 FLOW...
WHERE RELATIVE TORNADO THREAT MAY BE GREATER SHOULD STORMS ROOT
THROUGH STRONGER CAPPING. STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR TWO BOWING
MCSS DURING THE EVENING OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.
...NRN PLAINS...
ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SPREADING INTO CENTRAL SD MAY SUSTAIN A
MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT INTO THE AFTERNOON TOWARDS SWRN MN.
CAPPING MAY LIMIT DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR SURFACE FRONT EXPECTED TO
LIFT NWD INTO WRN SD WITH FRONT HOLDING IN PLACE OVER SERN SD/SRN MN
TODAY. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG INSTABILITY WITHIN WARM SECTOR AND
MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
SHOULD CAP WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...ELEVATED SEVERE THREAT MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL
SHOULD DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ALONG NOSE OF 50+ KT SSWLY LLJ.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ELEVATED SUPERCELLS AND
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.
...SOUTHEAST...
APPEARS MID LEVEL IMPULSE IS ALREADY ROTATING ESEWD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS WITH LEADING ASCENT EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLIER
THAN EXPECTED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THIS...COMBINED WITH WEAKENING
SHEAR/LAPSE RATES...SUGGESTS OVERALL SEVERE THREAT MAY NOT WARRANT
MAINTAINING HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES/CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK.
ALTHOUGH...A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF A MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT OVER PARTS OF THE AREA INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
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(US) Severe Thunderstorms (MT/WY/SD) Moderate Risk 16-06-07
#2
- Group: Chasers
- Posts: 7876
- Joined: 08-February 03
- LocationSt Helier, Jersey, Channel Islands
Posted --
HUGE supercell right now N Montana - I can see this thing going on for miles ! Torn warned too!
#3
- Group: Chasers
- Posts: 7876
- Joined: 08-February 03
- LocationSt Helier, Jersey, Channel Islands
Posted --
almost a reverse hook echo now
#4
- Group: Chasers
- Posts: 7876
- Joined: 08-February 03
- LocationSt Helier, Jersey, Channel Islands
Posted --
4 inch hail on this beast now heading towards Glasgow, MT
#5
- Group: Chasers
- Posts: 7876
- Joined: 08-February 03
- LocationSt Helier, Jersey, Channel Islands
Posted --
take a look, seems to be evolving into a squall/ bow echo segment right now, had 4 inch hail indicated earlier.
#6
- Group: Chasers
- Posts: 7876
- Joined: 08-February 03
- LocationSt Helier, Jersey, Channel Islands
Posted --
live weather warning coming through from my streaming radio feed - tornado warning - fc 13 miles west of Glasgow
http://asx.abacast.c...alse&uofc=false
http://asx.abacast.c...alse&uofc=false
#7
- Group: Chasers
- Posts: 7876
- Joined: 08-February 03
- LocationSt Helier, Jersey, Channel Islands
Posted --
it looks pretty dire for Glasgow imo
#8
- Group: Chasers
- Posts: 7876
- Joined: 08-February 03
- LocationSt Helier, Jersey, Channel Islands
Posted --
nice outflow boundary showing up on radar S of the storm right now
#9
- Group: Chasers
- Posts: 7876
- Joined: 08-February 03
- LocationSt Helier, Jersey, Channel Islands
Posted --
outflow now killing the cell I think.
#10
- Group: Chasers
- Posts: 7876
- Joined: 08-February 03
- LocationSt Helier, Jersey, Channel Islands
Posted --
so nice talking to myself now.
#12
- Group: Chasers
- Posts: 7876
- Joined: 08-February 03
- LocationSt Helier, Jersey, Channel Islands
Posted --
tis OK Martin. Getting another Torn Warning for Glasgow, golfball hail - just gone - I have watched this cell for over an hour but the ourflow boundary has now interrupted the inflow.
#13
- Group: Chasers
- Posts: 7876
- Joined: 08-February 03
- LocationSt Helier, Jersey, Channel Islands
Posted --
Cell now dying, sferics confined to N and S of small bow echo you can see.
#14 Guest_Convective North_*
Posted --
I'm quite interested in that smaller cell down in Yellowstone Co...
#15 Guest_Convective North_*
Posted --
Short but sweet...work in the morning Matt.
Goodnight I'm afraid...
Goodnight I'm afraid...
#16
- Group: Executive
- Posts: 4194
- Joined: 15-October 02
- LocationMountsorrel, Leicestershire.
Posted --
FYI Today is a downday for me back in Denver - however we are going to be raising the troops at 04:00am in order to reach SD/ND tomorrow.
#17
- Group: Chasers
- Posts: 7876
- Joined: 08-February 03
- LocationSt Helier, Jersey, Channel Islands
Posted --
for the record I think I will be chasing late next year like you Stu!
#18
Posted --
Quote
ChaserUK - 17/6/2007 15:52
for the record I think I will be chasing late next year like you Stu!
for the record I think I will be chasing late next year like you Stu!
The France chase was fun though wasn't it Matt? Count me in for next year, France and U.S 666
#19
- Group: Chasers
- Posts: 7876
- Joined: 08-February 03
- LocationSt Helier, Jersey, Channel Islands
Posted --
Quote
Jason Smith - 17/6/2007 16:05 The France chase was fun though wasn't it Matt? Count me in for next year, France and U.S 666
Quote
ChaserUK - 17/6/2007 15:52 for the record I think I will be chasing late next year like you Stu!
Yes France was cool indeed. I did not expect to have 2 days of very severe storms like the USA but then again I should know what I am doing by now!!!!1
USA next year for sure - counting down but before then there will be another Euro Chase!!! If you wanna join me gotta have a car as we can only fit 2.
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