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Model 'Run' - Types & Times
Dan G |
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| Online Location: Caversham, Reading | GFS initialises four times a day, 0000z, 0600z, 1200z and 1800z. Products start coming out about 3.5 hours after initial time, early forecasts first. Forecasts run to T+384 hours. I think the Met Office Unified Model runs for times a day, but they only publish data from the 0000z and 1200z runs (I think the intermediate runs are shorter). Run to 144 hours. The "fax" charts are based on this data but are tweaked by human forecasters, often using input from other models. Four fax analysis charts go out a day, and 12 hourly charts go out to +120 hours. The production order is a little odd, mind you. ECMWF runs twice day too, out to 240 hours. Rather limited data available only, and runs come out a good while after initialisation, around 7-8 hours later. Worth waiting for though as it operates on a 25 km grid, nearly twice the resolution of the GFS and UKMET (both 40ish km). ECM and UKMET both use slightly superior analysis techniques to the GFS, but the latter did get a major upgrade last year that closed the gap considerably. The initial analysis is important because if a model doesn't have a good understanding of what's happening now, it's forecasts aren't going to be much cop... Rough schedule (BSL is Meteoblue now) (all times zulu) 0400 GFS 00z 0530 Fax 00z an, 24, 36, 48 0600 UKMET 00z 0630 Fax 00z+60, 72 0800 ECM 00z 0800 BSL 00z 0930 Fax 06z an, 00z+84 1000 GFS 06z 1500 Fax 12z An 1600 GFS 12z 1630 Fax 12z+24 1700 Fax 12z+36, 48 1800 UKMET 12z 1830 Fax 12z+60, 72 2000 ECM 12z 2000 BSL 12z 2100 Fax 18z an 2200 GFS 18z 2130 Fax 12z+96, 120 ----- ESTOFEX • Report severe wx • Storm forecasting guide |
