[Simon Culling]

PaulKn, 18/4/10, 14:27, "Yes, and I guess the simple fact is that there are agreed actions in place when this type of thing occurs, and they are now being followed. The rules can't suddenly be changed because of the problems they're creating. This whole thing is a big wake-up call to people in their comfortable lives that the Earth is still in charge!"

Village will love this, Paul.

You have finally admitted that the power of Mother Earth transcends that of Man. We cant blame this on Global Warming.

666

With regard to the saefety question, there is a danger that this situation will develop into another swine flu panic. Some are begining to suggest that this is just H+S overkill.

[Flatlander]

What is 'safe' in this context? Twice the normal risk is still better than driving.

If 'safe' means back to normal risk levels, and pressure from the airlines does get them flying in marginal conditions, then I think the answer to the question is - when they've replaced all their engines...

There needs to be a retrofit ash detector for airlines. If you can see it, you can avoid it. Not sure how it could be done though. Radar? Light polarization?

[EllyTech]

BBC report tonight:

http://news.bbc.co.u.../uk/8628605.stm

Well, there is a growing 'positive buzz', abounding from results of the various test flights: I do hope this does not create a move in the 'wrong' direction regarding flight safety.

[StephenS]

I don't believe that airlines or professional pilots are going to risk their lives simply in pursuit of 'profit'. Pilots like all of us are divided over the issue, but a significant number believe that the current flight restrictions are excessive and should be lifted.

We have to keep a sense of proportion about this. The eruption is extraordinary - but what's even more extraordinary (in fact unprecedented) is the reaction to it. Obviously safety is one consideration, but 'no risk' doesn't exist at the best of times, and we may have to settle for the best that can be achieved under the circumstances. We also have to take into account the disastrous impact this will have on the world economy - the survival of airlines and inconvenience caused to stranded passengers is going to be the least of our worries.

I totally agree that we're stupid to be in this mess in the first place, and no doubt solutions will have to be found in terms of the way we travel and the way aircraft are engineered. But in the short term, we need the best and quickest fixes we can find. Sitting on our a*ses doom-mongering and catastrophising isn't going to get us anywhere.

[PK2]

Quote

Tim Prosser - 18/4/2010 22:40

What is 'safe' in this context? Twice the normal risk is still better than driving.

If 'safe' means back to normal risk levels, and pressure from the airlines does get them flying in marginal conditions, then I think the answer to the question is - when they've replaced all their engines...

that doesn't come cheaply either.

Quote

Tim Prosser - 18/4/2010 22:40There needs to be a retrofit ash detector for airlines. If you can see it, you can avoid it. Not sure how it could be done though. Radar? Light polarization?

Something like this?

Quote

CSIRO has constructed a prototype volcanic ash detector and has world-wide patents for the technologies developed. The instrument may also be suitable for detection of clear air turbulence and hazards such as low-level wind shear as well as for terrain avoidance.

dunno what happened the idea after 2001 [dunno] another example the choice between short term profit or long term investment?

[Andy Mayhew]

Quote

BBC business editor Robert Peston said a Met Office plane had encountered dangerous levels of ash when it went through the ash cloud on Sunday.

Dr Guy Gratton, head of the Facility of Airborne Atmospheric Measurement, a joint body belonging to the Met Office and the Natural Environment Research Council, said the test had discovered "a very complex set of ash plumes" with "six distinct layers".

"Those layers are around four or five times more dense than we saw on our last flight on Friday, so it's still quite a complex mixture of clear air and very worrying, but invisible volcanic ash at all sorts of heights," he said.

http://news.bbc.co.u.../uk/8628878.stm

[StuG]

The problem with this dispersed 'ash cloud' which is affecting europe, is that no one really seems to know what the levels of concentrations are or if the computer modelling is correct. The map you see on the VAAC part of the Met-O is based on predictions. The equipment on the NERC Do-228 isn't that accurate but at least has allowed helped prove if the modelling is right. As for resuming flights, well it took someone with big balls in NATS to close UK airspace (other countries then followed), it will take an even bigger set to say, well actually it's ok now. The airlines are getting impatient because upto now there hasn't been anything positive done to prove/disprove the theories, everyone has sat on their arses hoping for it to disperse. We know we can't fly through an ash cloud without damage but what no one seems to have accounted for is the widespread dispersal of ash as we see here. As Friday looks like the time when there'll be a shift in the airflow that could be when we see the start of airspace being re-opened. AIUI the americans aren't too impressed about the way the airpsce closure has been handled.

[PK2]

Quote

StuG - 19/4/2010 07:23

The problem with this dispersed 'ash cloud' which is affecting europe, is that no one really seems to know what the levels of concentrations are or if the computer modelling is correct. The map you see on the VAAC part of the Met-O is based on predictions. The equipment on the NERC Do-228 isn't that accurate but at least has allowed helped prove if the modelling is right. As for resuming flights, well it took someone with big balls in NATS to close UK airspace (other countries then followed), it will take an even bigger set to say, well actually it's ok now. The airlines are getting impatient because upto now there hasn't been anything positive done to prove/disprove the theories, everyone has sat on their arses hoping for it to disperse. We know we can't fly through an ash cloud without damage but what no one seems to have accounted for is the widespread dispersal of ash as we see here. As Friday looks like the time when there'll be a shift in the airflow that could be when we see the start of airspace being re-opened. AIUI the americans aren't too impressed about the way the airpsce closure has been handled.

Would have been handy in the airline industry had provided some indication of a "safe level" or the implications thereof to NATS/VAAC etc. At the moment the industry seem to be saying any level above a residual level may cause problems (see quote from P&W on page 1). Which makes may lead the authorities to be over cautious but without decent data it seems a bit of a gamble.

[Dave W]

Flight ban 'not over-reacting' say Wiltshire scientists

The research team was collecting data on the plume Scientists from Wiltshire who have been making test flights into the volcanic ash cloud say the decision to close UK airspace is not an over-reaction. Experts from Swindon-based Natural Environment Research Council (Nerc) flew over London and tracked the plume's edge near East Anglia. Flying just below 10,000 ft (3,000m) their instruments recorded "heavy gritty particles" at about 8,000ft. The data is used by the Met Office to help in forecasts. The first flight involving a Nerc team took place last Thursday when the ash cloud was first spotted. A second flight took off from Cranfield airfield in Bedfordshire on Saturday. A Nerc spokesman said: "On a basis of what we've seen, its (the ban) the correct decision. 'Three layers' "I don't believe there is any doubt and the decision is not an over-reaction. "Aviation is a very unforgiving business and I don't believe you can do anything but err on the side of caution." Their Dornier 288 plane tracked the edge of the plume over East Anglia and the North Sea, and towards the Dutch coastline. Flying at just below 10,000 feet, research instruments identified three distinct layers of volcanic residue. Heavy, gritty particles seem to be sitting at around 8,000ft (2440m) , while lower down in the atmosphere there are sulphurous chemicals and finer dust particles. The plane is modified with small holes which suck in air, enabling experts to analyse its gas content. The modifications also mean the team can closely monitor how close to the plume they are, enabling the plane to fly safely near to it. The grounding of all non-emergency flights from England's airports - which began on Thursday morning - will remain in place until at least 0100 BST on Monday as the plume continues to drift across Britain. The ash cloud resulted from an eruption in the Eyjafjallajoekull area of Iceland. Earlier on Sunday it was reported the Dutch airline KLM had flown through the ash cloud without the test plane being damaged. The carrier says it plans to carry out more tests on Sunday.

[Dave K]

"Airspace remains closed, or partially closed, in more than 20 countries." "The international airports council, ACI, said a total of 313 airports had been paralysed by the restrictions"

So if it's an over-reaction why do 20 nations authorities have the restrictions in place?  Even if the UK unilaterally resumed flights where could they go?

EB Belgium - closed 19-1800z
ED Germany - closed up to FL195 until 19-1800
ED Germany all airports - see relevant NOTAMs
EDYY Maastricht - open
EE Estonia - closed 19-1200z
EF Finland - closed 19-1500z for flights above FL 355 contact the FMP
EG United Kingdom - closed 20-0000z
EH Netherlands - closed 19-1200z
EI Ireland - closed 19-1800z
EK Denmark - closed 20-0000z, available above FL355
EN Bodo - open
EN Oslo - open
EN Stavanger open
(for details call +4775542900)
ESMM Malmo north - open
ESMM Malmo south - closed 19-1400utc
ESOS open north of 60n until 19 1200
EP Poland - see notam
LB Bulgaria - open but N-part closed sfc-fl285 notam A0500/10
LD Croatia - open from 0700
LE Spain - open
LFMM Marseille- open
LFEE Reims - closed 20-0600z
LFFF Paris - closed 19-1300z
LFRR Brest- closed 20-0000z
LFBB Bordeaux- open, except LFBBN+LM sectors FL1458-195 closed until 1300z
LH Hungary - closed 19-1000z
LI Italy Milan - CLOSED up to FL195 20-0600z
LI Italy Padova -CLOSED up to FL195 20-0600z
LJ Slovenia - open
LK Czech Republic - closed up to FL 245 20-0000z
LO Austria - a danger area over the entire FIR see notam
LR Romania - closed up to FL 285 19-1500z, except MOPUG sector, Notam A0736/10 refers
LS Switzerland - closed up to FL200 19-1200z
LY Serbia - open
LZBB Bratislava - closed up to FL245 19-1000z notam A/0626/10
E-part open (Vamog-Supak) notam C0631/10
UKLV - closed up to FL 205 19-0900z
UKOV - closed up to FL 205 19-1200z
UKFV - open
UKDV - open

[Dave K]

Quote

Chris Lloyd - 19/4/2010 09:38 I don't know why the airlines are complaining so much - most people have paid in advance and probably won't get their money back. They must be making huge profits with not having to fill their planes with fuel or pay their staff!

I'm not really sure how these claims of huge daily financial loss are worked out, but in any case we will no doubt end up bailing them out.

And some people question why we need high speed rail networks throughout Europe...

[snow hope]

That is incorrect Chris. My understanding is that all flihts cancelled will involve refunds to the passengers. I am not supporting the airlines, but I suspect pilots, cabin crew, ground crew are still all being paid - they are not paid per flight you know.

After this is all over, it will be interesting to see if any airlines go out of business due to the airspace closure. If so, your statement that "they must be making huge profits" will be shown to be fallacious! ;)

[John Robert Mellor]

The parts of the Airline industry which is calling for a rethink/resumption of flights and calling it an over reaction are certainly just looking at their bottom line. As Dave (Wiseman) alluded to, sending up a few planes without it falling out of the sky, is not good enough and ridiculously irresponsible. It gives an arm to all those emotionally involved by being unfortunate enough to be stranded in far flung places to take the over reaction baton and run with it. I have an impending feeling that it is only the failure of a plane either in the near future or some weeks ahead for the penny counters to realise that its lives that matter, not profit or loss columns

[Rochdale Cowboy]

Lots of theory and taking of the moral high ground here. Running any business is about risk management. EVERY airline knows more about managing the risk to crew, passengers, aircraft etc than EVERY poster on here. For us to be telling airlines they are irresponsible calling for a reassessment is pompous in the extreme. If the pilot is happy to take it up....I'm happy to get on it on the basis that neither of us wants to die!!! More realism less theory, please.

[summer '85]

I wonder what would have happened if this occurred just a fortnight before the Olympics in London were to commence?

[Uskys]

Most airlines from eu countries are signed into an eu commitment for them (the airlines) to pay for all hotels/food/flights back when they are resummed for all passengers stranded for whatever reason.