[Dave Hancox]

Quote

PaulKn - 8/6/2011 11:21 As I said on FB, Dave, I wonder why reporters use the word, 'tsunami' in such an appallingly bad way?

 Anything to sell their product.

[Dave Hancox]

BIG SUNSPOTS: NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of M-class solar flares today. The source would be one of three big sunspots emerging along the sun's northeastern limb. http://www.spaceweather.com/

[Bazmundo]

An M-class (nearly X-class) on the morning of the 30th, with further chances from sunspot 1261.

[Bazmundo]

Another long period M-class flare on the 3rd was picked up in Loften, Norway, so likely a bullseye shot by sunspot 1261:
http://www.spaceweat..._1312390004.jpg

[Dave Hancox]

Waiting to see if Earth bound. X flare

[Dave Hancox]

Guide to Solar Flares interesting video - http://www.universetoday.com/88059/sdos-guide-to-solar-flares/

[Bazmundo]

It caused a surge in protons around the planet, at around 08z: http://www.swpc.noaa...ce/SIS_24h.html but wasn't Earth directed.

The SWPC still haven't confirmed if the associated CME will hit. An X6.9 is pretty big, and SOHO and SDO picked up the outburst, but with it far off on the limb I don't think it will be geo-effective.

http://www.lmsal.com...10809_0748.html

[Bazmundo]

SWPC forecast, issued at 22UTC:

Quote

Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low to moderate. A slight chance for an isolated X-class flare, and/or proton event, remains for Day 1 (10 August). Event probabilities are expected to gradually decrease as Region 1263 rotates around the west limb.

Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled for the next three days (10-12 August). Unsettled conditions are expected on Day 1 (10 August) as a weak remnant of the 08 August CME arrives. Currently, a return to mostly quiet conditions is expected on Days 2 and 3 (11-12 August). Analysis of the 09/0906Z CME is presently underway to determine its potential geoeffectiveness.

[Bazmundo]

X2.1 flare last night (2220UTC), SWPC have a warning out for residual proton flux. Can be seen on the plot Dave H linked above, the 'halo' CME isn't Earth-directed apparently.

Quote

Space Weather Message Code: WARPX1Serial Number: 322
Issue Time: 2011 Sep 07 0442 UTC

WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Valid From: 2011 Sep 07 0500 UTC
Valid To: 2011 Sep 08 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

If interested, there's audio of a teleconference from NASA at 1pm EDT (1800BST I think) concerning new findings of solar flares from SDO:
http://www.nasa.gov/...DO_Telecon.html

[Dave Hancox]

Nice to see a bit of activity.



Space Weather now saying some CME's Earth bound should arrive 8-10 Sept. Will have to wait and see.

[Lorraine Evans]

Pete Scott and I are staying in Durness, Northern Scotland.. No aurora last night, as far as we can tell although his camera picked up some interesting light sources at times....

[Dave Hancox]

Interesting article, wont spoil the read.
The Secret Lives of Solar Flares

http://science.nasa....ep_secretlives/

[Bazmundo]

X-class flare about an hour and a half ago:

Space Weather Message Code: SUMX01
Serial Number: 73
Issue Time: 2011 Sep 22 1145 UTC

SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2011 Sep 22 1029 UTC
Maximum Time: 2011 Sep 22 1101 UTC
End Time: 2011 Sep 22 1144 UTC
X-ray Class: X1.4
Location: N15E90
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong

Attached thumbnail(s)

• 

[Bazmundo]

Almost a score for the University of Bradford's ASAP Flare prediction model. Attached 0947z prediction of 48% flare activity (although mainly centred on another active region), and the subsequent SDO image for the flare during it's X-class peak at 1115z.

Attached thumbnail(s)

• 
• 

[Bazmundo]

Another X-class flare from the same sunspot region, AR1302, this time X1.9 at 0940z, producing an M-class flare a while later. Attached SDO imagery showing the X flare as it waned, and the sheer size of the sunspots in that region. I'm off to re-learn morse code...

Space Weather Message Code: SUMX01Serial Number: 74
Issue Time: 2011 Sep 24 1005 UTC

SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2011 Sep 24 0921 UTC
Maximum Time: 2011 Sep 24 0940 UTC
End Time: 2011 Sep 24 0948 UTC
X-ray Class: X1.9
Optical Class: 2b
Location: N13E58
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong


Comment: This major flare originated from Region 1302

Attached thumbnail(s)

• 
• 
• 

[Dave Hancox]

... --- .-- .. .-.. .-.. ..

[Halo]

Not sure where to place this but you can just about see AR 1302 with the naked eye THROUGH a solar filter (26 September 2011).

[Halo]

...and today (27 September) by naked eye (see above post) just left of centre of the sun, again using a solar filter.

This post has been edited by Halo: 27 September 2011 - 12:24

[Bazmundo]

X-class flare from new region 1339 during the previous evening, suggestions already from the SWPC that this may have an associated Earth-directed CME.

Quote

Space Weather Message Code: SUMX01
Serial Number: 75
Issue Time: 2011 Nov 03 2058 UTC

SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2011 Nov 03 2016 UTC
Maximum Time: 2011 Nov 03 2027 UTC
End Time: 2011 Nov 03 2032 UTC
X-ray Class: X1.9
Location: N21E60
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong

Attached thumbnail(s)

• 
• 

[Dave Hancox]

Activity picking up over last couple of days M class flares anyway. The latest M Class lasting nearly 4 hours meant to be Earth directed.

http://www.swpc.noaa...ots/Xray_1m.gif