[Nigel Bolton]

Hope I am not tempting fate, and we end up with the wettest year on record........

However, I was quite intrigued to find out tonight that the reservoirs here in the southwest are just 74% full. At this time of year, they are normally 99% or more full or more often than not, cascading over the spill ways.

Unless we have appreciable rainfall over the rest of this winter, this could spell problems for the summer ahead, even if we have an average summer, temperature and rainfall wise.

We look as though we should have something of a 'rainfall reprieve' during the next couple of weeks, but with the pattern still effectively showing signs of further blocking, another spell of cold and dry later in the winter may make things hydrologically, rather interesting.

N.

[John Mason]

Nigel, I fully intend to get 3 really big water-butts in line before say April, fed by a rain-catcher and linked via pipes + gravity one to the other.

The one bit of bother being the one I acquired last Autumn. It was for a quid at the recycling centre - they ferret out potentially useful things & flog 'em at nominal prices. It is stood at the top of the garden and almost full. There will be a minor tsunami when I empty it! 

Cheers - John 

[Andy Mayhew]

Although Oct here was above average, Sept, Nov and Dec have all produced well below average rainfall. Not likely to be an issue in these parts and the next week does look like producing a fair bit of rain, but I can see some areas having issues aready come late spring unless there's a big shift towards more zonal/wet conditions.

[Nigel Bolton]

Quote

John Mason - 6/1/2011 20:44

Nigel, I fully intend to get 3 really big water-butts in line before say April, fed by a rain-catcher and linked via pipes + gravity one to the other.

The one bit of bother being the one I acquired last Autumn. It was for a quid at the recycling centre - they ferret out potentially useful things & flog 'em at nominal prices. It is stood at the top of the garden and almost full. There will be a minor tsunami when I empty it! 

Cheers - John 

Interesting. I had not thought about acquiring water butts at recycling centres. There is one down the road. May go and have a nosey. At present use my wheelie bin as a water butt.

N.

[PK2]

Still waiting for the EA to do the December report which gives reservoir levels but you can view river flow summary to 4/Jan here

[Nigel Bolton]

Some interesting stats there, especially w.r.t. the Avon in Dorest and Wilts, perhaps Lightning Hunter can concur.

Some spells of heavy rain last night here in Devon. The Exe is now flowing quite strongly. A large tree that collapsed into the river due to the weight of snow just to the north of the town has been taken downstream and now resides in the middle of the river in the centre of Tiverton. Time will tell if the coming nights' rainfall will be enough to swell the Exe to carry the tree further downstream.

N.

[Dave K]

Heavy / persistent rain in the last three days can only have done good but reservoir level at the nearest big one is still well below normal

[Ian Williams]

Well i am surprised as Nigel stated South west Reservoir levels are low especially for the time of year, and 25% down on this time last year!

 

Reservoir levels

We monitor the levels of our reservoirs to ensure their optimum operation.

The current levels of our five largest reservoirs are shown in the table below.

Week ending:	2nd January 2011
Week:	52
Total reservoir storage for the week:	85844 Ml (74.4%)
This week last year total storage was:	114530 Ml (99.3%)

Reservoir details			Historic Data
Reservoir	Net Capacity MI	Current Storage %	Last Year's Storage %	1995 Storage %
Roadford	34,500	69.4	98.5	79.0
Colliford	28,540	79.3	99.5	81.7
Wimbleball	21,320	61.4	100.0	100.0
Stithians	4,967	77.4	100.0	77.5
Burrator	4,210	67.4	99.8

[Paul Domaille]

Interesting. I think our reservoir is probably at about capacity, certainly the fields hereabouts are sodden with standing water, but I think we have had quite a bit more precipitation this 100 odd miles south.

Cheers,

Paul D

[BUTTERFLY]

One winter forecast (not the Met Office; it might have been METCHECK http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/HOME/? or http://theweatherout...type=pr&id=1774 though neither is exacty what I remember reading) on a website which I looked at some weeks ago predicted a "very dry" winter; it also predicted that December would the coldest relative to average of the 3 winter months (which looks almost 100% certain) with January being more unsettled but with some cold weather, and February being the driest of all, with perhaps near normal temperatures by day and some frost at night. I think someone mentioned this forecast on a UK Weatherworld posting -can anyone remember?

This sounds reminiscent of winter 1890/1891, which had the coldest December CET on record, and a very dry February (in fact the driest of any month in the England and Wales rainfall series starting in 1766 and rainless in some areas in Southern England, with near record temperatures). Unfortunately more wintery weather followed in March (wth heavy snow) and May 1891(sharp frost in mid-May with -10.0 deg. C. at Ben Bevis) I believe.

The CET values and England & Wales rainfall for these months are shown below with 1971-2000 averages and difference or percentage shown in brackets:

DECEMBER 1890 CET -0.8 (5.1 deg. C., -5.9 deg. C.); E & W Rainfall 34.4 mm (100.7 mm, 34.1%)
JANUARY 1891 CET 1.3 (4.2 deg. C., -2.9 deg. C.); E & W Rainfall 67.2 mm (94.8 mm, 70.9%)
FEBRUARY 1891 CET 3.9 (4.2 deg. C., -0.3 deg. C.); E & W Rainfall 3.6 mm (67.0 mm, 5.4%)

WINTER 1890-1891 1.4 deg. C. (4.5 deg. C., -3.1 deg. C.); E & W Rainfall 105.2 mm (262.5 mm, 40.1%)

For December 2010, the (provisional) CET was -0.7 deg. C. (5.3 deg. C. below the 1971-2000 average) and the E & W Rainfall was 37.3 mm (37% of 1971-2000 average) - see http://hadobs.metoff...o_mean2010.html and http://www.metoffice.../averages.html. So far, the winter of 1890-1891 and 2010-2011 have been remarkably similar (also in the relatively low sunshine in SE England, with only 9.5 hours at Charlwood in Surrey in December 2010, compared with Zero at Bunhill Row, Westminster, London, in December 1890 - smog was of course much worse 120 years ago.

The current CET for 1st to 7th January 2010 is 2.8 deg. C. (-0.7 deg. C.) - see http://hadobs.metoff...info_mean.html. Obviously it would need to become somewhat colder but some days of cold days and nights could easily do this, or even if January ends up significantly warmer than 1891, February could be colder than in 1891.

We cannot expect history to repeat itself exactly though somehow I cant see wet mild weather predominating. In Northern Ireland we got quite a lot of rain in September and November, though October and December were a good bit drier. Probably the worst thing all round would be a lot of cold dry weather next spring (Not that cold wet weather is pleasant, but at least it stops drought). Mild wet weather in March and early April then some warm dry weather in May would be ideal!

[Nigel Bolton]

Irony abound. Opening this thread appears to have sealed its own fate. Best warm conveyor for over a year atop ATM, and more to come. Good thing, it is wet at the time of minimum evaporation, so aquifers and reservoirs should recharge.

N.

[PK2]

Quote

Nigel Bolton - 12/1/2011 15:06

Irony abound. Opening this thread appears to have sealed its own fate. Best warm conveyor for over a year atop ATM, and more to come. Good thing, it is wet at the time of minimum evaporation, so aquifers and reservoirs should recharge.

N.

lol, so often the case with threads on weather forums.
I'm not sure how much of the water is soaking in ATM though. The fields I access regularly seem sodden for the first few inches but the water doesn't seem to soak away as fast as usual. Can't believe it's still frozen at depth, although it is the impression given [dunno] .

[John Mason]

The ground is likely saturated, Peter. Snow-melt followed by all this rain we've had....

Cheers - John 

[Nigel Bolton]

Quote

PK2 - 12/1/2011 15:12

Quote

Nigel Bolton - 12/1/2011 15:06

Irony abound. Opening this thread appears to have sealed its own fate. Best warm conveyor for over a year atop ATM, and more to come. Good thing, it is wet at the time of minimum evaporation, so aquifers and reservoirs should recharge.

N.

lol, so often the case with threads on weather forums. I'm not sure how much of the water is soaking in ATM though. The fields I access regularly seem sodden for the first few inches but the water doesn't seem to soak away as fast as usual. Can't believe it's still frozen at depth, although it is the impression given [dunno] .

Unlikely. The ground thawed out under the snow this winter, due to upward heat flux, and we had our most severe frosts after the snow had fallen, so 30-35cm acted as a very efficient blanket. Last two winters saw many severe frosts before the snow arrived, and given grass mins are generally several degrees lower than air mins on clear nights with no snow cover, the frost was able to penetrate far into the ground.

N.

[PK2]

Quote

Nigel Bolton - 12/1/2011 15:19

Quote

PK2 - 12/1/2011 15:12

Quote

Nigel Bolton - 12/1/2011 15:06

Irony abound. Opening this thread appears to have sealed its own fate. Best warm conveyor for over a year atop ATM, and more to come. Good thing, it is wet at the time of minimum evaporation, so aquifers and reservoirs should recharge.

N.

lol, so often the case with threads on weather forums. I'm not sure how much of the water is soaking in ATM though. The fields I access regularly seem sodden for the first few inches but the water doesn't seem to soak away as fast as usual. Can't believe it's still frozen at depth, although it is the impression given [dunno] .

Unlikely. The ground thawed out under the snow this winter, due to upward heat flux, and we had our most severe frosts after the snow had fallen, so 30-35cm acted as a very efficient blanket. Last two winters saw many severe frosts before the snow arrived, and given grass mins are generally several degrees lower than air mins on clear nights with no snow cover, the frost was able to penetrate far into the ground.

N.

I'd have thought unlikely too but it's not developed the usual "bottomless mud" but rather a very wet layer with harder ground underneath (at least last time I checked a week or so ago). This year I had noticed how the pipes (just underground) froze during the first cold spell (with little/no snow) but remained running during the second (the one with more snow). Like I say I don't think it's still frozen but it certainly doesn't seem to be behaving like "normal" during a wet spell with saturated ground. No idea if this is a widespread thing though...

[Dave K]

Quote

PK2 - 12/1/2011 15:12

Quote

Nigel Bolton - 12/1/2011 15:06

Irony abound. Opening this thread appears to have sealed its own fate. Best warm conveyor for over a year atop ATM, and more to come. Good thing, it is wet at the time of minimum evaporation, so aquifers and reservoirs should recharge.

N.

lol, so often the case with threads on weather forums. I'm not sure how much of the water is soaking in ATM though. The fields I access regularly seem sodden for the first few inches but the water doesn't seem to soak away as fast as usual. Can't believe it's still frozen at depth, although it is the impression given [dunno] .

High water table?

[Ian Williams]

A slight increase in reservoir levels in the SW of around 1%, next week should see a significant jump i would of thought

Week ending:	9th January 2011
Week:	1
Total reservoir storage for the week:	86945 Ml (75.4%)
This week last year total storage was:	113010 Ml (97.9%)

Reservoir details			Historic Data
Reservoir	Net Capacity MI	Current Storage %	Last Year's Storage %	1995 Storage %
Roadford	34,500	69.6	96.4	80.2
Colliford	28,540	80.7	99.2	83.3
Wimbleball	21,320	63.6	100.0	100.0
Stithians	4,967	79.4	99.8	80.3
Burrator	4,210	64.5	88.8	100.0

[Ian Williams]

A big increase of 7% from the 9th to the 16th, i have recorded the months average rainfall in the first 2 weeks, however looking at the models, it looks like its going to drop somewhat over the next couple of weeks. Burrators has increased by almost a massive 30%!!!

Reservoir levels

We monitor the levels of our reservoirs to ensure their optimum operation.

The current levels of our five largest reservoirs are shown in the table below.

Week ending:	16th January 2011
Week:	2
Total reservoir storage for the week:	94868 Ml (82.2%)
This week last year total storage was:	113298 Ml (98.2%)

Reservoir details			Historic Data
Reservoir	Net Capacity MI	Current Storage %	Last Year's Storage %	1995 Storage %
Roadford	34,500	76.6	95.6	80.7
Colliford	28,540	83.6	99.8	83.6
Wimbleball	21,320	71.8	99.9	100.0
Stithians	4,967	93.9	100.0	81.1
Burrator	4,210	93.4	95.3	100.0

[Nigel Bolton]

In lieu of lots of high pressure, BUMP.

N.

[Dave W]

Indeed; by 23rd Jan 3/4 full for the SW's largest and third largest reservoir is not an awful lot to start Spring off with-and lower than 2005 at this time.

Week ending: 23rd January 2011 Week: 3

Total reservoir storage for the week: 96417 Ml (83.6%)
This week last year total storage was: 113464 Ml (98.3%)

Reservoir details Historic Data

Reservoir Net Capacity MI Current Storage % Last Year's Storage % 1995 Storage %
Roadford 34,500 77.8 95.2 85.3
Colliford 28,540 83.8 100.0 85.7
Wimbleball 21,320 75.0 100.0 100.0
Stithians 4,967 100.0 100.0 87.6
Burrator 4,210 89.0 99.7 100.0