[Dave Hancox]

I have only just come across these and thought i would start a thread for information about the effects of space weather on Earth, Keeping the Solar Watch Thread Clear. Think it is quite interesting to see how sensitive a position would be if we had a major flare. Feel free to post any reports of disruption caused by space weather, Aurora here along with any other interesting links.

 Here is a link to effects of Solar Flares and the Aurora on Earth. http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/index.html#RadioBlackouts

 

[Dave Hancox]

Link to interesting summary of the effects of space weather in the format of a free PDF Summary - Severe Space Weather Events--Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts:A Workshop Report. http://www.nap.edu/c...record_id=12507

[Bazmundo]

A great idea for a reports thread Dave!

So I take it we're looking for radio interference and GPS wobbles in association with known flares? It is startling to think of the number of GPS dependent activities there are these days, and how the upcoming solar max is going to affect them.

[Dave Hancox]

Quote

Bazmundo - 10/3/2011 11:48 A great idea for a reports thread Dave! So I take it we're looking for radio interference and GPS wobbles in association with known flares? It is startling to think of the number of GPS dependent activities there are these days, and how the upcoming solar max is going to affect them.

 Yeah i thought it would be interesting to see if we could monitor any reported problems and post them here. I did see one last week not directly related but TV was meant to have been knocked out for a short time about a week ago, due to a satellite being in between the Sun and Earth. Can't find the link now.

[Bazmundo]

Quote

Dave Hancox - 10/3/2011 12:56

Quote

Bazmundo - 10/3/2011 11:48 A great idea for a reports thread Dave! So I take it we're looking for radio interference and GPS wobbles in association with known flares? It is startling to think of the number of GPS dependent activities there are these days, and how the upcoming solar max is going to affect them.

 Yeah i thought it would be interesting to see if we could monitor any reported problems and post them here. I did see one last week not directly related but TV was meant to have been knocked out for a short time about a week ago, due to a satellite being in between the Sun and Earth. Can't find the link now.

Yes, I saw the link myself. That's one problem with equinoxes when the sun is right behind the satellite as you look at it, the EM radiation from the sun swamps the signal - which is why the satellites are positioned there as the Sun changes position more rapidly through this phase than solstices. If the satellite had a lower or higher angle these TV blackouts would occur frequently during midday.

I've noticed a few problems with my mobile broadband (dongle) over the last month, possibly due to an active Sun or an appalling level of service, but I'm switching to home wireless soon. I wonder if mobile phone reception is affected, or more importantly if we could distinguish SW effects from ordinary issues? Ham radio is a better yardstick, as long-range reception can be affected by the ionosphere - the Australian Space Agency folk are good at picking up on this: http://www.ips.gov.au/HF_Systems/6/1/1

Edit - this is a much better page on their website, links to European Ionospheric pages as well as global: http://www.ips.gov.au/HF_Systems/9/3

[Bazmundo]

I've just realised that those links are a minefield of restricted data access and out-of-date info, so here's a run down of the most useful EU Ionospheric monitoring sites:

ESA current and forecast A and K indices (the only bit thats free): http://www.esa-space..._latest_indices

SW Warning Centre in Lund, Sweden; with great links to effects: http://www.lund.irf....astservice.html

Lycksele Ionogram, plotted as transmission frequency absorption (y axis) versus height (x axis), Google "Ionogram" for help: http://www.irf.se/~i...st24AsGifs.html

Scinitllation monitoring (GPS effects) from Italy, the left-hand interpolated plot from Nottingham seems to be working still: http://www.eswua.ing.../ingv/s_not.php

[Dave Hancox]

Currently S3 Solar Radiation Storm


Biological: radiation hazard avoidance recommended for astronauts on EVA; passengers and crew in high-flying
aircraft at high latitudes may be exposed to radiation risk.***
Satellite operations: single-event upsets, noise in imaging systems, and slight reduction of efficiency in solar
panel are likely.
Other systems: degraded HF radio propagation through the polar regions and navigation position errors likely

[Dave W]

Evidenly this is the strongest storm to affect earth since Oct 2003..

[Dave Hancox]

Now also showing G1 magnetic storm

Power systems: weak power grid fluctuations can occur.

Spacecraft operations: minor impact on satellite operations possible.

Other systems: migratory animals are affected at this and higher levels; aurora is commonly visible at high latitudes (northern Michigan and Maine)**.

[Dave Hancox]

Now at S3

Biological:
radiation hazard avoidance recommended for astronauts on EVA;
passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft at high latitudes
may be exposed to radiation risk.***
Satellite operations:
single-event upsets, noise in imaging systems, and slight reduction of
efficiency in solar panel are likely.
Other
systems: degraded HF radio propagation through the polar regions and
navigation position errors likely.

[Bazmundo]

Did anyone have any errant Satnav effects this evening? UoNottingham picked up lot of scintillation south of the auroral oval this evening, where GPS satellite signals through the ionosphere are wobbled slightly showing you out of position to actual.

Attached thumbnail(s)

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[Dave Hancox]

Delta Airlines diverts some aircraft from polar routes due to solar storm. http://news.discover...orm-120124.html

[Dave Hancox]

Radio Blackout to R3 level over past 24hrs from X Class Flare


R 2
Moderate
HF Radio: Limited blackout of HF radio communication on sunlit side, loss of radio contact for tens of minutes.

Navigation: Degradation of low-frequency navigation signals for tens of minutes.




Also Solar Radiation Storm Current



S 2
Moderate
Biological: passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft at high latitudes may be exposed to elevated radiation risk.***

Satellite operations: infrequent single-event upsets possible.

Other systems: small effects on HF propagation through the polar regions and navigation at polar cap locations possibly affected.

[Dave Hancox]

Greetings,The COMET Program is pleased to announce the publication of Space Weather Basics, 2nd Edition. This 45-minute module is an update to the first Space Weather Basics module published in 2005. The module is designed to discuss the basics of space weather between the Sun, where space weather begins, and Earth, where the effects of space weather are felt. It begins by supplying some detail about the sun and the role it plays, the types of space weather events and their impacts, and how Earth and the magnetosphere respond to these events. The updates to the module highlight how time-dependent, 3-dimensional models and new data feeds from recently launched satellites are contributing to the forecasts of space weather events approaching Earth issued by NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). This updated module includes graphics, animations, audio narration, and a companion print version.The intended primary audience is an operational weather forecaster, but it will also be of interest to a general audience.


The module is available athttp://www.meted.uca...basic/index.htm

Its free to sign up and has some interesting weather modules as well.https://www.meted.ucar.edu/index.php

[Dave Hancox]

Interesting article from Space.com on the worst Solar Storms http://www.space.com...es-history.html

[Dave Hancox]

R3 Radio Blackout this morning



Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 530
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 05 0635 UTC


SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 05 0334 UTC
Maximum Time: 2012 Mar 05 0434 UTC
End Time: 2012 Mar 05 0601 UTC
Duration: 147 minutes
Peak Flux: 12000 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 120 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.


R 3
Strong
HF Radio: Wide area blackout of HF radio communication, loss of radio contact for about an hour on sunlit side of Earth.

Navigation: Low-frequency navigation signals degraded for about an hour.








For latest Aurora Watch see here -http://www.ukweather..._40#entry791475

[Bazmundo]

SIDC in Belgium are warning of further disruption possible from sunspot AR1429, with the potential for more X-class flares and radio bursts, with slower proton storms affecting the planet generating further radio interference. AR1429 is nasty and is on the NErn quarter and is rotating around towards us, making events such as this morning's more geoeffective.

Quote

PRESTO FROM SIDC - RWC BELGIUM Mon Mar 5 2012, 1323 UT

Catania sunspot group 65 (NOAA AR 1429) situated around N20E60 produced an X1.1 flare this morning, peaking at 04:09 UT. It was accompanied by coronal dimmings and a post-eruption arcade indicating the eruption of a CME.
This eruption was also associated with a strong radio flux in the metric range.
SEP flux at energies above 10 MeV is elevated as a result of the halo CME and the CME associated with yesterday's M2.0 flare. The proton flux will most probably cross the SEP event threshold in the coming hours. Protons from both CMEs are delayed due to the eastern position of the CME source region.
Due to the beta-gamma-delta configuration of the photospheric magnetic field of the Catania sunspot group 65 (NOAA AR 1429) and its movement towards the solar central meridian, we expect another major flare from this group, probably with an associated Earth-directed CME and a proton event.
The Earth is currently inside a slow (around 350 km/s) solar wind flow with average (around 5 nT) interplanetary magnetic field magnitude. We expect quiet geomagnetic conditions in the coming hours.

[Bazmundo]

Thanks to 00ctober for the heads-up, an X5.4 flare occurred after midnight, expected radio interference on the sun lit side, proton storm impending and a type II radio burst indicates a CME release. Yet to confirm a CME from imagery.

Quote

Space Weather Message Code: SUMX01
Serial Number: 78
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 07 0057 UTC

SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 07 0002 UTC
Maximum Time: 2012 Mar 07 0024 UTC
End Time: 2012 Mar 07 0040 UTC
X-ray Class: X5.4
Location: N17E29
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong
Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio - Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.

[Bazmundo]

The X5.4 was closely followed by an X1.3, again from AR1429.

Quote

Space Weather Message Code: SUMX01
Serial Number: 79
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 07 0206 UTC

SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 07 0105 UTC
Maximum Time: 2012 Mar 07 0114 UTC
End Time: 2012 Mar 07 0123 UTC
X-ray Class: X1.3
Location: N22E12
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong
Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio - Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.

[Bazmundo]

The expected proton storm from the double X flares is here, SOHO was offline after the initial flare but latest imagery shows up this stage of the outburst quite well atm. Alerts available here.

Quote

Space Weather Message Code: ALTPX2
Serial Number: 49
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 07 1022 UTC

ALERT: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 07 1015 UTC
NOAA Scale: S2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Radiation - Passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights may experience small, increased radiation exposures.
Spacecraft - Infrequent single-event upsets to satellites are possible.
Radio - Small effects on polar HF (high frequency) propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.