[Bazmundo]

G2 geomagnetic storm, first issued at 1155z.

Quote

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK06
Serial Number: 282
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 12 1236 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2012 Mar 12 1235 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1200-1500 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washinton state.

[Bazmundo]

Solar storms, moreover the effects of, have been added to the Cabinet Office's "National Risk of Civil Emergencies" list along with other threats to society, such as terrorism and pandemic influenza.

http://www.guardian....tion-technology

Quote

"...the UK is regarded as particularly vulnerable because scientific advances have made the country more dependent on technology than ever before. Ministers have been advised by scientists that the most advanced technology is also the most delicate and that "high levels of energetic particles produced in the atmosphere by solar radiation storms can greatly enhance error rates in ground digital components found in all modern technology".

The threat was placed on the register after a panel of experts, including two scientists from the Meteorological Office, produced a "reasonable worst case scenario" for ministers.

[Bazmundo]

The second of two expected CMEs struck the magnetosphere at 0318z this morning, passing ACE at just before 0230z, with much more density than was predicted but still a moderate speed. There was a response from the auroral oval since then but planetary geomagnetic activity (from magnetometers) doesn't seem high, so not really much of a reverberation going on and hence no aurora forecast. Levels are still unsettled though, so it might be worth keeping an eye on Kiruna later this evening to see what we're rotating toward.


In the longer term, a study of SOHO and Hinode data by separate teams has detected the degeneration in the magnetic field of the Sun in the northern hemisphere. Possible indications that the magnetic flip, and signal of the Solar Maximum, is imminent and much earlier than the 2013 prediction. The net result would be a smaller cycle than suggested, and less chance for eruptive prominences at geoeffective lower solar latitudes as they now start to migrate up the sun's face and eject their danger upward. Still, the activity in the southern hemisphere is still increasing overall, and the studies suggest this hemisphere (and pole) is slower to enter the Maximum than the northern hem. These studies cast a great deal of doubt on the validity of current solar models, most of which are based largely upon activity at lower solar latitudes and don't account for the observed asymmetric magnetic field reversal progression.

http://www.nasa.gov/...-asymmetry.html

Quote

What once pointed to a strongly negative north pole, is now a weakly magnetized, mixed pole that will become neutral – which occurs at solar maximum -- within the month according to the team's predictions.

"This is one of the most interesting things in this Hinode paper to me," says Tarbell. "How did the polar reversal start so early, even though the onset of the solar cycle, that is, increased activity at lower latitudes, hadn't begun yet?"

Scientists will also keep their eye on the current cycle – numbered Solar Cycle 24 – because a polar switch at the north that is sooner than was expected also implies this may be a fairly small cycle in terms of the number of sunspots and amount of solar activity.

[Dave Hancox]

R3 storm over past 24hrs and an X1.4 flare today.


R 3

Strong

HF Radio: Wide area blackout of HF radio communication, loss of radio contact for about an hour on sunlit side of Earth.

Navigation: Low-frequency navigation signals degraded for about an hour.

X1
(10-4)

175 per cycle
(140 days per cycle)

[PaulKn]

Quite a big X-class flare yesterday - keep an eye on the auroral oval tomorrow!

[Bazmundo]

Combined CMEs from the 9th and 10th hit the magnetosphere yesterday, and as of 06z today induced a K=6 geomagnetic storm expected to last for most of today (currently K=5) but weaken slightly. At it's height it pushed the magnetopause to almost geostationary orbit altitude, affecting some satellites, and has generated some notable ground currents in Finland overnight.

Quote

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK06
Serial Number: 300
Issue Time: 2012 Nov 14 0600 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2012 Nov 14 0600 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

[Bazmundo]

Yesterday's CME impact left it's mark, attached is a graph for Ground Induced Current at the Mantsala Gas Pipeline in Southern Finland (a comparable latitude with the Shetland Isles). An initial jolt around 07z then a much larger induced current as Finland rotated into the strong auroral oval (ie: into the night-side, see attached plot).

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