[John Robert Mellor]

MAP

6.5

2011/04/07 13:11:25

17.431

-93.978

167.4

VERACRUZ, MEXICO

[Andy Mayhew]

Oh dear. Guess who forecast an increase in mag 6.0+ earthquakes, including 'West USA', 6-9 April? [me?] And Mexico is nearly sort of like in California, isn't it ...... :o

[Dave K]

Quote

Andy Mayhew - 7/4/2011 15:06 Oh dear. Guess who forecast an increase in mag 6.0+ earthquakes, including 'West USA', 6-9 April? [me?] And Mexico is nearly sort of like in California, isn't it ...... :o

It was very hot in Mexico yesterday so it must be a solar proton blast wot dun it :%

Well statistically there is a Mag 7 earthquake every three weeks ( though obviously it is a random distribution year by year, and many more of Mag 6 ) so if we call for one at the end of April or early May we have a chance, maybe we can go round the circle for South America for the next one.

[Chris Alder]

Pretty deep at 167km so can't imagine there's too much damage!

[Andy Mayhew]

Aye, widely felt but no reports of any damage at all

http://www.mercuryne...?nclick_check=1

[Andy Mayhew]

Quote

Big Dave's Gusset - 7/4/2011 15:22

Well statistically there is a Mag 7 earthquake every three weeks ( though obviously it is a random distribution year by year, and many more of Mag 6 ) so if we call for one at the end of April or early May we have a chance, maybe we can go round the circle for South America for the next one.

Wrong side, it's Japan (again):

http://www.independe...ke-2264579.html

[Dave K]

Quote

Andy Mayhew - 7/4/2011 16:22

Quote

Big Dave's Gusset - 7/4/2011 15:22

Well statistically there is a Mag 7 earthquake every three weeks ( though obviously it is a random distribution year by year, and many more of Mag 6 ) so if we call for one at the end of April or early May we have a chance, maybe we can go round the circle for South America for the next one.

Wrong side, it's Japan (again):

http://www.independe...ke-2264579.html

Well that's a quandary for our friend, which one will he claim to have predicted? Probably both [hehe]

[ldavidcooke]

Hey BDG,

Too early, the rate of movement would be measured in weeks and months. As to Mexico versus California, it would have been a matter of the difference in the strain absorption at depth. California and the more pliable rock there are like a piece of rubber that is more likely to store stress. The Mexican event is too deep to be part of the surface progression of the recent Japanese 9.1 event. The greater pressures at depth reduce the possibility of a proportional relationship as the roughly 1000:1 difference between a 9.1 (1,500 megaton equiv.) and a 7.1 (1.5megaton equiv.) is not proportional to the difference of pressures between a 40km versus 150km depth

(However, it also depends on the rock type, which likely are similar in Japan and Mexico, as both should have a lot of volcanic basalt. Where as the faulting rock in southern California seems more Mylonite in character. With granite reaching from coast to mountain top, large white crystals dotted/interspaced with black is common, near the fault itself the crystals are reduced in size and a more metaphoric appearance can be seen in the embedded rocky bits, with a definite "grain" or striping demonstrating the deformation due to the pressures of the strike slip transform fault. In the faults themselves, I found much of the surface material is more like pulverized clay, appearing to be mainly iron oxide rich sandstone, having a cottage cheese appearance.)

Cheers!
Dave