[Dave K]

Having a think about making a couple of changes to how I ran this last year ( http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/81061-project-icebox-europe/ ).

First change I will make is to change the criteria so that a location has to have an Ice Day to score any points rather than just having a sub zero minimum. This will add a bit of time to the checking process but a bit more in line with the idea of an icebox! It's still the basic intent to find out which location in Europe is most consistently the coldest through the extended winter period which is roughly October through to March.

Secondly, after Sweden and European Russia dominated to such an extent because they have more synoptic stations on the network, I'm thinking about adding a rule that only the two coldest locations from any one country can score on one day. By increasing the number of scorers each day to ten this means at least five nations will be on each daily scoreboard.

And thirdly, considering changing the way points are scored from a simple 10,9,8, etc down to 1 to use the daily simple mean temperature as the basis so that the colder the day the more points a location gets ( which avoids somewhere getting 10 points for -1.0 °C just because it happens to be a mild day across the continent ).

Because of the limitations in the online Ogimet ranking the lowest 10 minima in a day will have to be the criteria for initial selection each day but not necessarily reflected by the daily scoreboard (if that makes sense).

So I shall run this offline to see how it goes but may change this notion drastically if it just creates too much work. As yet nowhere has come close to an Ice Day so it may be a while before this starts in earnest.

Comments and suggestions (except "get a life!") welcome...

[Ian Williams]

Nice one Dave, Look forward to it starting. Looking back on last year Sweden started having Ice days from around mid October, I`m left wondering then whose thread will start first, my Icebox Britain, awaiting the first of the selected 20 to get an air frost or yours waiting for the 1st ice day in Europe. Given the current model guidance mine isnt about to start for a while yet.

[Dave K]

Well at the moment the lowest maxima at <500m asl are around +8 to +10 °C, in parts of Finland and Russia, so yes it could well be another 3 weeks or so before we start to see ice days although the models in FI suggest the possibility by the end of the first week of October above the Arctic Circle in Sweden/Finland/Russia.

[Dave K]

Still no ice days to report from any of the eligible stations although some locations have had maxima around 5 - 7 °C, so it may not be too long now before I can start testing the new rules and scoring.

[Dave K]

Just as an update, very close to the first Ice Day of 2011/12 on the 6th, Grimsstadir in Iceland had a max of +0.5 °C and a subzero minimum. Although there is a question mark over whether Iceland is geographically part of Europe I do include it in this project.

It's looking as if I might have to use the 06z synop to determine the lowest continental minima and to calculate the 24 hour means to make it easier than looking up loads of different times as I did last year. As I intend to use a 24 hour mean to base the scoring this should be OK, but still need to test once we get some ice days coming in.

[Dave K]

Grimsstadir in Iceland did record an ice day yesterday (the only one in the whole of Europe) it seems although they seem to compile their synops with 12 hour minima at 09z and 18z unlike the rest of Europe. The max was -0.4 and the min -6.1 so today is the commencement date for Project Icebox although it will continue to be trialled offline first.

[Ian Williams]

Last year Grimsstadir had its 1st ice day on the 18th of September however it didnt have another one until 10th October so doesnt rerally tell us alot lol

[Dave K]

Another update to say that there have been many near misses of ice days with max temps between 0.0 and 0.5 °C in various places but no actual ice days (even the Grimsstadir one looks iffy going by the synops, there was clearly a rolling 24 hour period of subzero but not strictly within the 24h period I was looking for). There have been some fairly impressive sub -10 °C minima though.

Initial findings are that it could well be just to much digging necessary to do this the way I hoped, but I do want to start something by 1st November so will keep looking into options for the next few days.

[Dave K]

Definitely an ice day at Grimsstadir for 24h ended 09z on the 19th with a max of -2.6 °C, probably to be followed up with another one when today's 09z synop comes in. That does seem to be the first credible ice day of the 2011/12 extended winter for a met station below 500m asl.

[Ian Williams]

Indeed Dave Grimstaddirs max for yesterday was -4.2C and a max of -2.6C for the 18th so 2 in a row.

[Dave K]

Ian Williams, on 20 October 2011 - 15:32, said:

Indeed Dave Grimstaddirs max for yesterday was -4.2C and a max of -2.6C for the 18th so 2 in a row.

Actually it may not quite have made it for the 09z - 09z period, www.vedur.is say it was +2.0 °C at 09.00z.. So probably two ice days for 00z - 00z but only one counting for Project Icebox. Sigh...why does a seemingly simple project have to be so problematic

[Ian Williams]

Big Dave, on 20 October 2011 - 15:48, said:

Actually it may not quite have made it for the 09z - 09z period, www.vedur.is say it was +2.0 °C at 09.00z.. So probably two ice days for 00z - 00z but only one counting for Project Icebox. Sigh...why does a seemingly simple project have to be so problematic

Ahh, I see You are doing a 24hr thingy ending 09Z, yes Grimsstadir was 2.0C @ 09Z

http://www.wetter24....obsid/4073.html

Must say its reporting is rather sporadic at best

This post has been edited by Ian Williams: 20 October 2011 - 16:19

[Dave K]

It looks like we have the first ice days of the year for stations <500m asl in Sweden and Finland for this period:

		Tmax °C
Pello	Finland	-1.2
Kiruna Apt	Sweden	-0.4
Naimakka	Sweden	-0.4

Have to wait for the mins as the 06Z synops are late though. Still not sure how I will play this yet this time around

[Dave K]

Right the 06Z synops came in...

Now IF I decide it is practical and not too much work this is a sample of the league table. There are no points for being 1st, 2nd, 3rd etc; a reminder that only lowest minima that are also ice days count and only two places per country per day. Score based on mean temperature only using ABSOLUTE VALUE(Simple daily Tmean/10 ). [ABSOLUTE VALUE] means simply that the minus (ice days of course always negative) is turned to a plus value, so the higher=colder and the better.

Place Name	Nation	m asl	°N	Entries	Low Tmin	Tot Points
Grimsstadir	Iceland	384	65.6	1	-6.4	0.45
Pello	Finland	84	66.8	1	-7.5	0.43
Naimakka	Sweden	402	68.7	1	-5.9	0.32
Kiruna Airport	Sweden	452	67.8	1	-5.3	0.29

I suspect this will be too much to do every day for 6 months but we'll see. I can always go back to last year's method.

[DG57]

Under 500 m asl, Lépaud (Creuse, France) recorded -5.6°C.

LINK to Météo Climat (be careful to the waiting time for the site loading)

Wikipedia (LINK)

...don't know if it's includable...

[Dave K]

MorganeLanesle, on 23 October 2011 - 16:18, said:

Under 500 m asl, Lépaud (Creuse, France) recorded -5.6°C.

LINK to Météo Climat (be careful to the waiting time for the site loading)

Wikipedia (LINK)

...don't know if it's includable...

Thanks Morgane but any site has to have an "ice day" which is 24 hour maximum temperature below zero too and I can only really include synop stations which report on Ogimet or it's too much work to track places down. Sorry...

[DG57]

Ah ok, it's the maximum temperature, which has to be below 0°C.

I thought you included the minimum temperatures below -5°C (France had its first day with a station under 500 m asl with < -5°C).

Sorry BDG.

[Dave K]

MorganeLanesle, on 23 October 2011 - 16:47, said:

Ah ok, it's the maximum temperature, which has to be below 0°C.

I thought you included the minimum temperatures below -5°C (France had its first day with a station under 500 m asl with < -5°C).

Sorry BDG.

Well I might change my mind yet and say I look at the minimum temperatures only! But last year when I did it that way neither France nor the UK got anywhere near the league table. I need to decide by 1st November...

[Dave K]

Today, at least as per the 24 hours ending with the 06Z synop, it is the first incidence of ice days for eligible stations in European Russia

	Tmax	Tmin
Khoseda-Khard	-2.5	-11.9
Pechora	-1.1	-10.5

In fact there were 7 locations in European Russia with ice days but the two stations above recorded the lowest minima so get the two places available. Awaiting late synop returns from Sweden but it does look like few stations also got ice days there too. Still awaiting an ice day for an eligible Norwegian station as yet.

This is still in trial phase so if you're not really sure what the rules are, don't worry I'll try and explain it once I know what I'm doing! Any questions though please ask...

[Dave K]

Here's a sample of the national rankings using the few eligible ice days recorded so far:

Nation	Entries	Low Tmin	Low Tmax	Points
Sweden	4	-7.2	-0.9	1.32
Russia	2	-11.9	-2.5	1.30
Iceland	1	-6.4	-2.6	0.45
Finland	1	-7.5	-1.2	0.43