[brshort716]

Welcome to November! The glummest, cloudiest, and windiest month of the year in northern Minnesota!

November is off to a mild-ish start (I say that because dry air+longer nights means the nights are cooling off substantially despite the warm afternoon temps). We've been getting well below freezing at night as low temperatures are around normal or below while high temps are above average.

We have a slight chance for some rain and possibly a mix with snow late this weekend as a storm cuts up the plains. The storm is moving northward unusually far west, though, so the majority of precipitation and snow will fall over North Dakota and even eastern Montana.

The models are hinting at continued mildness for the next 5-7 days, with a possible big changeover within 2 weeks. The GFS model has a huge upper level high building over Scandinavia and then building westward toward Greenland. 500mb heights are forecast to fall across the mid-latitudes from the Pacific coast of America to western Russia. This will mean a possible invasion of Arctic air into the U.S. as well as Europe and the resulting misery that comes with that. It's still too early to tell, but the GFS usually does a good job catching a glimpse of things to come before "losing" it in the medium term only to finally bring the original idea back once all the other models have caught on to the change.

It's really not a matter of if, but when we will be talking about Snovember and Snowccupy Wall Street...

[brshort716]

Nothing much to report weather-wise over the past several days. It was mild, but very windy on Friday and Saturday with temperatures into the low 50s. Temperatures have been falling since Saturday afternoon and have hovered around the freezing mark all day today thanks to a system that cut up the plains and is driving chilly air in from the west.

The forecast for the next 7 days looks fairly dry with seasonable to mild weather. Lows will range from 20˚F to the low 30s with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s.. slightly above normal.

Week two is really up in the air. The GFS has reversed course and is calling for a continued trough in the western U.S. with a ridge across the east. The ensembles call for a classic negative PNA pattern with low heights across western Canada and the western U.S. with a pronounced southeast ridge and a split jet stream in the Pacific ocean near Hawaii. This would keep the west cool to the front range and then in a diagonal path northeastward into Minnesota. The storm track would have storms diving into the west from Alaska and then making the big turn in the central rockies to the northeast. This will bring plenty of chances for interesting weather for the central U.S. with a significant snow storm possible from Colorado to southeastern Minnesota and severe weather as far north as Chicago.

The high latitudes continue to cool and snow cover has recently gone above normal for the time of year, thanks to a huge spread south and westward of snow across Russia. This will help incubate cold air. Because of the expected high heights across both the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, this cold air will continue to incubate as it stays over the icecap and land. It will eventually turn around and flood the U.S. and Europe with cold air. While I'm stuck in Boringland weather-wise, the forecast keeps giving me hope only to dash it away. Oh well, winter has to come eventually! The Cottonwood in my back yard has finally lost 90% of its leaves... so I know it can't be far off (I swear that tree was the last tree in my town to lose its leaves).

[Cindy]

There's not been much to talk about weather wise in my area either. We did have seasonable weather last week and it was quite nice. But now we are back to warmish temperatures and will likely reach a high of 80* or there about today. Rain will pass through the area tonight/tomorrow in advance of another cool front, not at strong as the one last week though.

[ldavidcooke]

Hey Cindy,

I took advantage of what I suspect will be our last warm-ish day for the next 4 months. With a humidity in the low 30's and clear skies only able to pump the temperature to 68F, it is unlikely to be warmer until the sun's rays become more direct next Spring. So now that the mowing is done I will attempt the rechargeable weed-eater. (The Bride has a bet on wrt whoes battery gives out first...)

Hold onto your hat, I suspect you may be in for a blow this Winter. To me it simply tastes like '86 all over again. Major killing frosts in FL, with sub-tropical plants dying left and right.

Be a great Spring for Nurserymen and Commodities, if true... Get your woolies out and a new pair of gloves..., I suspect you'll need them, 'specially for the mid-Winter snowball fights there in NO...

[Conrad]

It's been mild and mostly only a little bit cloudy now and again over the past week with no precipitation here in Montreal.

However a low is now centred near Sault Sainte Marie close to where water from Lake Superior flows through towards Lakes Huron and Michigan. It looks as though this new low will track towards central Quebec about 500 or 600 miles north of here. Rain is forecast to begin tomorrow morning Thursday 10th November. We too are waiting for the winter to start as most of the leaves are on the ground now. There is nothing spectacular going on in this region yet but that storm off the north west coast of Alaska is really something! Mother Nature is preparing something for us and we'll soon find out what.

[Cindy]

It's VERY mild and breezy in the Big Easy today. We are under a slight risk for severe weather, but I don't think we will get anything serious and the storms should be isolated. It's a warm 84* at present and with the heat index (can you believe it?!) it feels like 87*. We'll have a slight cool down later in the week. That will feel nice

[ldavidcooke]

Hey All,

Well it looks like the ENSO pattern is to be a repeat of last year with the La Nina weakening towards June and a possible replication of last Summers drought. Looking at the NAI, I still expect the VE to move more positive earlier then this past year.

Looking at the error in a prediction of a possible early or stormy Winter, it appears I got that wrong. Currently, it looks like, Winter may delay and breakout with a late Winter/early Spring Winter Storminess Cycle, instead.

Looking at the 250mb isotach stn of the SRRS NH Analysis, I am beginning to see a reduction in the Polar Jet Stream meanders. It is likely that there could be a general Temperate Zone cooling. This should be reflected in a strong, polar centric, Polar Vortex this coming Spring. Given that we could have an unlikely mild Cyclonic season. I would be curious if there are any storm chaser sites making early/LRF predictions?

[Cindy]

Well boy did I get fooled by that system coming through here last night - goes to show I still have A LOT to learn. The straight line winds caused damage all around the area and a tornado hit in Kentwood actually lifting a house off of its foundation and spinning it. Some how no one suffered any injuries.

Now that that has passed, it's really pretty outside. Temps will cool down for a day or so as well.

[Conrad]

This Fall has been unusually mild in Montreal frequently up to about 10C/18F warmer than the usual for the date. However, today it has turned cooler and this afternoon we had our first wet snow flurry. The afternoon temperature was up at +%C/41F but the Dew Point was down at -2C/28.4F so the flakes didn't melt completely on their way down but were able to keep cool by evaporation.

This year the continent has been cooling from the NW towards the SE. It is now below -30C/-22F over NE Alaska and NW Yukon. The west of Canada has become colder much more rapidly than here in the east. At the 500 mb level about 18000 feet up there is a well defined Long Wave Trough (Rossby Wave Trough) along the Longitudes from NW Hudson Bay , south through Lake Superior and on to the coast of Mississippi. There is another Long Wave Trough more or less along the west coast of Canada with a weak ridge over the western mountain states and just east of the Rockies in Canada.

It is getting cooler but it won't get really cold for a while . Anyway November 17th was our first snow flurry day this Fall.

[brshort716]

David: I think you're right. I think this will be a more traditionally backloaded winter like La Niña seasons typically are. Look at winters like 1949/50 or 1954/55. At least here in the upper midwest those winters began mild, especially in November into the 1st half of December. January 1950 turned frigid here but the east saw near record warmth when an extremely negative Pacific North American pattern left Seattle under feet of snow while NYC saw spring like weather.

1954/55 was mild from November well into January and then turned very cold. February and March 1955 were brutal here.

Here in Bemidji the past week has seen temperatures well below average, holding in the teens and twenties during the day with night time lows in the teens down into the single digits. We've had on and off light snows that have added up to about 3 inches on the ground. There appears to be a big turnaround on the way though. The PNA will change from negative to neutral/positive as the trough digs into the southeast while most of Canada sees ridging and much warmer than normal temps. Alaska will continue to be in the deep freeze. Even with the very warm atmosphere, surface temps will not be unusually warm here due to the snow on the ground. Temps will be confined to around the 40˚F, though that could change once the snow melts.

This could be wrong though. The forecast models have been horribly inaccurate and unable to grasp the current weather pattern. By the forecast, the past week should have been mild and sunny here. Still, it looks pretty bleak for winter lovers in my neck of the woods with no big snows to speak of and warmer than normal temperatures.

The problem with backloaded La Niña winters is that they tend to bring very cold, wet springs that can lead to flooding. We shall see.

[Cindy]

It's a very lovely day today down South. Severe weather moved through early last night, and while the rain was heavy we escaped hail. The fog has moved out and I can see the lake today from my office window. Temps are mild, in the low 70s, and it looks like a repeat for Thanksgiving. A stronger front will move through Saturday, and Sunday highs will only be mid 50s.

[skanky]

Hello all, don't normally post in here, but this popped up in my feed stream (via John Fleck at Inkstain: http://www.inkstain.net/fleck/?p=6273 ) and I thought it may be of interest.
What's especially of interest are the maps (be sure to check all the options in the drop downs):

http://ncdc.noaa.gov...ted=Submit#curr

This post has been edited by skanky: 24 November 2011 - 11:29

[brshort716]

November Weather Stats/Summary:

Avg. Temp: 30˚F/-1˚C (+3.5˚F/+1.9˚C)
Avg. High: 38.1˚F/3.4˚C (+4.1˚F/+2.3˚C)
Avg. Low: 21.8˚F/-5.7˚C (+2.8˚F/+1.6˚C)

Highest temp: 54˚F/12˚C on the 4th
Lowest temp: 7˚F/-13.9˚C on the 20th and 21st

Precip: 0.76" (-0.59")
Snowfall: 5.7" (-6.8")
Largest snow in 24 hours: 1.8" on the 15th and 18th

November 2011 continues the stretch of mild Novembers we have experienced since 2004 and a general trend of November mildness seen since 1980. The last November at or below normal temp wise was 2003 and the last significant cold November was in 1996. Through 1996, the trend line for the 20th century was flat. Modern records were broken in November 1999, 2001, and again in 2009.

The month started off balmy, continuing the balmy conditions seen through much of October with temperatures in the 40s and 50s with lows generally just below freezing. Colder weather and snow moved in for mid-month and we actually had a few inches of snow on the ground from the 15th until the day after Thanksgiving (the 25th), but the warmth of Thanksgiving weekend melted most of that away. Colder weather arrived again for the end of the month, but no significant snow fell after the 18th.

November continued the dry conditions seen since August, though with precipitation being relatively the same in all three autumn months, November ended up closest to average. Even so, snowfall and rainfall were both below average for the month. November is the traditional start of our drier season when monthly precipitation drops below 2" with every month remaining below 2" until May. That said, the very cold winters here mean that even a few inches of water equivalent precipitation leads to an average of about 60 inches of snow per winter season.. much of which doesn't melt until spring. For that reason, soil moisture is highest in May despite it being the end of the dry season.

For fall 2011, only 2.16" of precipitation fell in Bemidji, compared to the 1981-2010 average of 5.99", making it one of the driest autumns on record.

Looking for past dry autumns with La Niña in place, two years fit the bill: 1967/68 and 1974/75. With the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation falling below 0 for the first time since 1995 in November, it makes those two years even better analogs for the coming winter. 1974/75 is the better analog of those two years and if they indicate anything, it is for a mild, but stormy winter in northern Minnesota... contrary to the overall winter warmth and preceding dry autumn, there was a lot of snow and a very cold spring kept snow around longer than normal. Also, the great blizzard of January 10-13th, 1975 was one of the most severe in Minnesota history in terms of travel disruption. Many roads in rural western Minnesota were closed for weeks before plows could clear them of drifts that reached 30 feet high in some areas. The wind chills were also particularly dangerous with that storm.

With the very mild October and NOvember, autumn 2011 will go down as one of the milder on record... to have a mild October and November with a relatively cooler September is not unusual for a La Niña season. The reason for this is that the polar jet stream is stronger than normal and displaced northward over the Pacific. It dips southward over the Gulf of Alaska into the western U.S. but stays further north in the eastern U.S. This keeps cold bottled up in Alaska and NW Canada and while the mountain west can be chilly as the moist maritime Pacific air is forced upward over the mountains where it cools, it then downslopes off the mountains and keeps the plains and eastern U.S. mild. It also keeps most of us relatively dry since the storms move to quickly to pick up much moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.. and they can't pull down Arctic air or warm subtropical air, so they don't strengthen much. They remain relatively weak until they exit out over the Atlantic.

[ldavidcooke]

ldavidcooke, on 15 November 2011 - 19:25, said:

Hey All,

Well it looks like the ENSO pattern is to be a repeat of last year with the La Nina weakening towards June and a possible replication of last Summers drought. Looking at the NAI, I still expect the VE to move more positive earlier then this past year.

Looking at the error in a prediction of a possible early or stormy Winter, it appears I got that wrong. Currently, it looks like, Winter may delay and breakout with a late Winter/early Spring Winter Storminess Cycle, instead.

Looking at the 250mb isotach stn of the SRRS NH Analysis, I am beginning to see a reduction in the Polar Jet Stream meanders. It is likely that there could be a general Temperate Zone cooling. This should be reflected in a strong, polar centric, Polar Vortex this coming Spring. Given that we could have an unlikely mild Cyclonic season. I would be curious if there are any storm chaser sites making early/LRF predictions?

Hey Guys,

Just wanted to revisit our discussion of last Nov. So did the Winter of 11-12 turn out like we thought? How was it different and what did you see in the preliminary data that came true?