[Dave K]

With regard to the current synoptics, I'd not heard of this before, a phenomenon that occurs every few years (my own translation from French, correct I hope!):

Tropical-Like Mediterranean Storm
A Mediterranean storm of the type TMS ( Tropical-Like Mediterranean Storm ) is a very tight pressure system consisting of an axisymmetric cloud structure, with strong convection, generating strong winds (sustained winds greater than usual force 8 Bft). These features have led presentation of a TMS on a satellite image morphology very similar to that of tropical storms - or tropical cyclones when they develop an "eye" - without adopting, however, neither the size nor the violence.

The TMS belongs to the family of Tropical-Like Cyclones which don't conform to the strict criteria of Tropical Cyclones but nonetheless show a similar morphology on radar and satellite.

Just as for TLC, the mode of formation and nature of TMS are still debated. They resemble, however, the category of " subtropical cyclones", which involve joint elements of dynamic synoptic extratropical cyclogenesis (the triggers are usually abnormal PVU interacting with cut-off at the middle level) and the characteristics usually associated with Tropical cyclones (no frontal system in the central part of the pressure system, strong convective activity in immediate vicinity of the minimum low pressure, presence of a core of a warm anomaly overhanging a minimum of the surface).

Example from January 1995




http://www.keraunos.org/tropical-like-mediterranean-storm-novembre-2011.htm

[Dave K]

A chart showing the possible formation of the TMS and location tomorrow (Sunday). Virtually all of Italy with the exception of the Trentino-Alto Adige and Friuli regions is on high alert for extreme rainfall.

This post has been edited by Big Dave's Gusset: 05 November 2011 - 19:00

[DG57]

I like the term of Medicane (Medi-terranean Hurri-cane) used in the link you gave us, BDG.

Indeed, with the (possible) global warming, we should (un)fortunately see more subtropical cyclones/hurricanes.

SST has to be above 26°C to note the creation of a true tropical cyclone. Currently, the SST off the Balearic Islands toward France is around 20-22°C.

This post has been edited by MorganeLanesle: 05 November 2011 - 19:41

[StephenS]

A brief discussion here of the hurricane-like Mediterranean storm of January 1995 - sustained winds reached cat 1 intensity:

http://www.mindsprin...en/intr0008.htm

A paper from Weather describing a more recent example, from September 2006:

http://www.mmm.ucar....les/weather.pdf

We have discussed these systems before on UKww, but I haven't yet found a link to the relevant thread or threads.

[StephenS]

Thank you, Tormenta - that's an excellent source of information.

At this time, an 'eye' of sorts may be forming...

This post has been edited by StephenS: 06 November 2011 - 04:03

[Dave K]

Models are still suggesting formation of a TMS but observations still show " a lot of uncertainties " about the organisation of convection around the cyclonic structure with a warm anomaly and for now there is no firm evidence. However this system is still forecasted to deliver renewed high totals of rainfall and thunderstorms around the Piemonte/Liguria region on Tuesday especially. For now it is wait and watch...

[Dave K]

The most up-to-date models runs are less supportive of a TMS developing it seems, although it is still a possibility. http://www.estofex.org/

[P.K.]

Just looking at the latest model runs and the GFS (12Z) is the only one currently showing a shallow symmetrical warm core. The CMC (12Z) and UKMO (06Z) are both in between cold core and warm core forecast to transition to a shallow or even moderate warm core. The NOGAPS (00Z) is currently a deep cold core forecast to transition to a shallow warm core.

[Dave K]

Last night's summary from Keraunos was still saying there was a lack of a warm core and insufficient convective organisation around the centre to speak of a TMS. Have to await a further update this morning...my knowledge is nowhere near good enough to interpret the latest satellite imagery.

[P.K.]

This a first for the region. (In terms of it actually being monitored like this by the SAB that is).

07/1200 UTC 40.6N 5.9E ST1.5 INVEST -- Mediterranean Sea

[Dave K]

Brief extract from www.estofex.org about the Western Mediterranean LP

Quote

Latest ASCAT data indicates a broad and asymmetric wind field with maxima still displaced from the center, which is typical for an organizing subtropical cyclone (in the range of 30-35 kt). Phase diagrams also support that this depression continued to structure its shallow warm core during the past 12 h and indicates further organization for the upcoming 24 h.

However there is a caveat about the lasck of real time surface data given, but unfortunately it does look as if Liguria will again receive some extremely heavy rainfall with the effects also hitting Piemonte and southernmost Switzerland..

[Bazmundo]

Was just flicking through the latest cyclone phase diags, the 06z GFS 42hr 925mb winds look ominous - but not necessarily for meteorological reasons!

Attached thumbnail(s)

• 

[Dave K]

Bazmundo, on 07 November 2011 - 15:51, said:

Was just flicking through the latest cyclone phase diags, the 06z GFS 42hr 925mb winds look ominous - but not necessarily for meteorological reasons!

It's like a Rorschach inkblot test!

[P.K.]

Full bulletin from what I posted earlier.

TXMM21 KNES 071220
TCSMED

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE

B. 07/1200Z

C. 40.6N

D. 5.9E

E. THREE/MET-9

F. ST 1.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...FT IS BASED ON PT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ

[P.K.]

Meteo-France warnings.

WOMQ50 LFPW 071618

WARNING ON METAREA 3, METEO-FRANCE
WARNING NR 303 , MONDAY 7 NOVEMBER 2011 AT 1615 UTC
GENERAL SYNOPSIS, MONDAY 7 AT 12 UTC :
LOW 1004 OVER SARDAIGNE, MOVING NORTHWARD, EXPECTED 1008 OVER SOUTH
OF PROVENCE BY 8/12 UTC.
PROVENCE, WEST OF LIGURE :
CONTINUING TO 8/15 UTC AT LEAST.
EASTERLY 8. SEVERE GUSTS.
CORSE :
FROM 8/03 UTC TO 8/12 UTC.
SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT TIMES 8. SEVERE GUSTS.
SARDAIGNE :
CONTINUING TO 8/12 UTC.
SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST LOCALLY 8. SEVERE GUSTS. SEA TEMPORARILY HIGH IN
SOUTH AT FIRST.
ANNABA :
CONTINUING TO 7/18 UTC.
WEST OR SOUTHWEST AT TIMES 8. SEVERE GUSTS. SEA TEMPORARILY HIGH AT
FIRST.=

-----

FQMQ54 LFPW 070840

Weather bulletin on METAREA 3, METEO-FRANCE, 

Toulouse,  Monday 7 November 2011 at 09 UTC.

- Wind speed in BEAUFORT SCALE - Sea : Total significant.

- Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, 

and maximum waves may be up to twice the significant height.

Part 1 : WARNING : 302.

Part 2 : General synopsis, Monday 7 at 00 UTC

Low 1003 over EAST OF CABRERA, moving northeastward, expected 1005 this evening over north of

SARDAIGNE, expected 1008 over south of PROVENCE by 08/12 UTC. Associated strong thundersqualls

with severe gusts.  

Part 3 : Forecasts to Tuesday 8 at 12 UTC

EAST OF CABRERA :

Decreasing Westerly 6 or 7, then 4 to 6 tomorrow morning. Severe gusts.  Rough, locally very rough in east,

decreasing at end. 	

BALEARES :

North or Northeast 6 or 7 in east, at times 8 at first, but Northwesterly 3 or 4 in west, becoming Westerly 3 or 4

everywhere overnight. Severe gusts. Moderate or rough, becoming slight or moderate. 	

MINORQUE :

Northerly 5 to 7, at times 8 in west at first, decreasing Westerly 4 to 6 at end. Severe gusts. Moderate or rough,

becoming moderate.   

LION :

North or Northeast 4 to 6, increasing Northerly 5 to 7 overnight. Gusts. Moderate, locally rough in far southeast.   

PROVENCE, West of LIGURE :

Easterly 5 to 7, increasing 6 or 7 in the afternoon, at times 8. Severe gusts. Moderate or rough.   

East of LIGURE :

East or Southeast 5 or 6. Gusts. Moderate or rough.   

CORSE :

Easterly 4 or 5, increasing Southeast 6 or 7 from south in the evening, at times 8. Severe gusts. Moderate,

becoming rough, locally very rough.   

SARDAIGNE :

Cyclonic 5 to 7, at times Southeasterly 8, decreasing Westerly 4 to 6 at end. Severe gusts. Rough or very rough,

temporarily high in south.   

MADDALENA, ELBE :

South or Southeast 5 or 6, at times 7. Gusts. Moderate or rough.   

Weather bulletin on METAREA 3, METEO-FRANCE, 

- Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum

waves may be up to twice the significant height.

ALBORAN :

Westerly 5 or 6, decreasing 4 or 5 overnight. Moderate, becoming slight at end.   

PALOS :

West or Southwest 4 to 6, decreasing 3 to 5 overnight. Moderate or rough, becoming slight or moderate.   

ALGER :

West 6 or 7, at times 8, decreasing 5 or 6 in the evening. Severe gusts. Rough or very rough, temporarily high in

east at first, becoming moderate tomorrow.   

WEST OF CABRERA :

Westerly 3 to 5, locally 6 in far east at first. Moderate locally rough in east, becoming slight.   

ANNABA :

West or Southwest 6 or 7, at times 8, decreasing 5 or 6 in the evening. Severe gusts. Rough or very rough, temporarily

high at first, becoming moderate or rough.   

TUNISIE :

Southerly 4 or 5, at times 6, veering Southwesterly 3 or 4 in the morning. Moderate or rough.   

CARBONARA :

Southerly 4 to 6. Moderate or rough.   

LIPARI :

Southerly 3 to 5. Moderate.   

CIRCEO :

South or Southeast 4 to 6. Moderate, temporarily rough in far north.   

Part 4 : Outlook for next 24 hours :

Cyclonic near gale or gale over north of basin. 

NNNN

[P.K.]

Hope no one minds if I move a few of the tropical related posts over from the European area. This low is now getting full tropical Dvorak estimates.

TXMM21 KNES 071819
TCSMED

A. 01M (NONAME)

B. 07/1800Z

C. 41.1N

D. 5.3E

E. THREE/MET-9

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...DT=2.5 BASED ON .5 BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=2.5. MET=2.0. FT IS BASED ON DT. DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED
LONG ENOUGH AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CENTER FOR A TROPICAL CLASSIFICATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ

Reduced size ( 27 K), click image to get full-sized image ( 177 K).

[Dave K]

Latest translation from www.keraunos.org

Quote

The low pressure system named "01M" DSS / NOAA continues to develop between the Balearic and Sardinia. The last pass of ASCAT estimated at over 30 knots on the quadrants south, east and north of the system. The cyclonic circulation, especially well established on all sides of the depression, coupled with the persistence of deep convection primarily on three of the four quadrants and the supposed development of a core of warm anomaly aloft reinforces the hypothesis of a TMS organization.

The forecast trajectory and development of convection in the phenomenon are quite sensitive. All the forecasting models seem in agreement on a track back to the north, but some scenarios choose tonight a curve to the north / northeast near the Haute-Corse, before the system will redirect to Provence.

There are three supporting charts at http://www.keraunos....vembre-2011.htm

[P.K.]

Meteo-France are warning this at Beaufort Force 8, ie of tropical storm strength.

WOMQ50 LFPW 072058

WARNING ON METAREA 3, METEO-FRANCE
WARNING NR 306 , MONDAY 7 NOVEMBER 2011 AT 2050UTC
GENERAL SYNOPSIS, MONDAY 7 AT 12 UTC :
LOW 1004 OVER WEST OF SARDAIGNE, MOVING EASTWARD EXPECTED 1006
OVER EAST OF SARDAIGNE BY 08/12.
LION
CONTINUING TO 08/03 UTC
NORTHEAST 8 IN SOUTHEAST. SEVERE GUSTS.
MINORQUE
IMMINENT TO 08/09 UTC
NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT TIMES 8. SEVERE GUSTS.
PROVENCE, WEST OF LIGURE :
CONTINUING TO 09/00 UTC AT LEAST.
EASTERLY 8, AT TIMES 9. SEVERE GUSTS.
CORSE :
FROM 8/03 UTC TO 8/12 UTC.
SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT TIMES 8. SEVERE GUSTS.
SARDAIGNE :
CONTINUING TO 8/12 UTC.
SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST LOCALLY 8. SEVERE GUSTS. SEA TEMPORARILY HIGH IN
SOUTH AT FIRST.=

[P.K.]

senorpepr Mike A Ship PDGS ("Rotterdam") located 67 km NNE of Tropical Storm 01M reporting sustained winds at 38 kt w/ 1005 hPa pressure.

[P.K.]

TXMM21 KNES 080021
TCSMED

A. 01M (NONAME)

B. 08/0000Z

C. 41.4N

D. 5.4E

E. THREE/MET-9

F. T3.0/3.0/D2.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...1930Z SSMIS PASS SUGGESTS AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE TO BE
PRESENT. GT 6/10 BANDING ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. MET =
2.5 AND PT = 3.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

07/1930Z 41.1N 5.5E SSMIS


...GUILLOT