[P.K.]

TXMM21 KNES 080630
TCSMED

A. 01M (NONAME)

B. 08/0600Z

C. 41.5N

D. 5.8E

E. THREE/MET-9

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS ALMOST .7 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT
OF 3.0. MET = 2.5 AND PT = 3.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIBLER

[P.K.]

From ESTOFEX:

****** Tropical storm 01M/99L ******

SUMMARY: 8th NOV. 2011, 0600 UTC
-----------------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.5N 5.8E
ABOUT 108 MI...200 KM SE OF MARSEILLE
ABOUT 126 MI...235 KM W OF AJACCIO, CORSICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...52 MPH...83 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ROUGHLY 5KM/H TO THE EAST
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... ROUGHLY 1000 hPa

UPDATE 06UTC: The center of the cyclone again became better organized with the strongest convection now in the southern and eastern part (maybe enhanced by the jet streak, which passes by to the SE). Some slow movement to the east occurred but despite a further consolidating cyclone, latest reports do not indicate any strengthening (also assisted by ASCAT data). No further surface reports were available.

NOTE 1: Despite issuing new ESTOFEX updates, this part of the outlook will be updated when new informations become available. Please check this table for further updates during the upcoming 24 hours.

NOTE 2: ESTOFEX is not responsible for forecasting any tropical storm activity. This is just an additional information and therefore captured as a "side-note". For more informations, please contact the following address of the Satellite Analysis Branch (http://www.ssd.noaa....ns/archive.html,[SAB]).

As of 18 UTC (7th Nov.), the Satellite Analysis Branch upgraded the depression over the W-Mediterranean to "Tropical system 01M", as convection persisted for an adequate time atop the center. Since then, deep convection weakened somewhat with warming cloud tops next to the center. Nevertheless, very good banding is now present in all quadrants with good outflow atop (especially to the NE, pointing to a 30 m/s 300 hPa jet). A Dvorak number-pressure relation was used for the pressure classification (also at 21Z at the 7th, a ship at position N 41°36' , E 6°06' reported a pressure of 1005.0 mb with 38kt winds from 160°). The final wind strength reflects the intensity of the latest SAB guidance.

There remains some time left for further intensification, before geopotential heights slowly increase during the end of the forecast period. We would not be surprised to see another flare-up of DMC along the center due to the convective cycle of those features (peaking during the morning hours). The N-outflow may weaken somewhat as the upper jet to the north weakens, but at the same time the southern outflow channel could take profit of a 300 hPa streak, which crosses Sicily during the forecast from SW to NE. SSTs remain at or above 20°C, whereas 500 hPa temperatures gradually warm up 1-2K until 06Z. Combining all those effects, some further organization/strengthening is forecast if this system can support more convective bursts along the center before overall conditions become somewhat less favorable during the night hours onwards.

The storm motion is handeled badly by the models...without surprise. 01M is captured in a very weak steering flow and most models now show a system, which meanders around between the Balearic Islands and Corsica/Sardinia. In any case, residents along the adjacent coasts should keep a close eye on the further development of this feature as bands of strong convection may bring heavy downpours next to gusty winds.

A level 1 was issued not for the system itself (as we do not forecast tropical cyclone activity), but for the showers/thunderstorms, which accompany that cyclone. The level 1 covers heavy rainfall and strong to isolated severe wind gusts.

[P.K.]

Reduced size ( 27 K), click image to get full-sized image ( 178 K).

[P.K.]

TXMM21 KNES 081225
TCSMED

A. 01M (NONAME)

B. 08/1200Z

C. 42.1N

D. 6.2E

E. THREE/MET-9

F. T2.5/3.0/W0.5/12HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION HAS DECREASED OVER THE LAST 6...AND ESPECIALLY
12 HOURS. CIRCULATION IS LARGELY EXPOSED EXCEPT FOR SHALLOW CONVECTION
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION THAT MEASURES 3/10 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL. DT IS 2.0. MET AND PT ARE UNDEFINED BECAUSE SYSTEM WAS
NOT TROPICAL 24 HOURS AGO. FT IS BASED ON TRADITIONAL DVORAK CONSTRAINTS
LIMITING CHANGES IN FT TO 1/2 T NUMBER OVER 6 HOURS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

Reduced size ( 30 K), click image to get full-sized image ( 188 K).

[Bazmundo]

Has it formed an eye again just before 15z? I was just looking at the 3hr CTTH loops on the SAF NWC website, and MSG2 vis and IR for 1445z on the NRL Monterey page.

[Dave K]

Extract from http://www.estofex.org/

Quote

PDATE 12UTC: The new update of SAB now indicates some weakening, as deep convection failed to re-develop mainly in the western part. WV imagery also indicates some dry air intrusion from higher levels, which gradually raises concern about how pronounced the warm core structure is right now. However, intense DMC evolved in the last hour or so mainly in the eastern/northern part and starts to wrap around the center. UW CIMMS also hints on somewhat augmented shear, which should remain steady during the next few hours. The cyclone now starts to increase its forward speed and moves more to the ENE to NE. This may be the result of an upper wave, which passes by to the west. Models want to stall this feature just SW of Liguria as the upper waves moves off to the north later tonight. The risk for strong downpours and gusty winds may increases over far SE France and probably along the W-Ligurian coast during the following hours.

[PJB]

Wind Gusts to over 90mph close to the SE Mainland France

[P.K.]

TXMM21 KNES 081827
TCSMED

A. 01M (NONAME)

B. 08/1800Z

C. 42.8N

D. 6.5E

E. THREE/MET-9

F. T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION...ALBEIT RELATIVELY SHALLOW...HAS WRAPPED
ITSELF AROUND MUCH MORE OF THE CENTER THAN 6 HOURS AGO. THE INCREASED
CURVATURE MEASURES 6/10 ON THE LOG10 SPIRAL RESULTING IN A DT OF 3.0. PT
AGREES WHILE MET IS 2.5. FT IS BASED ON DT. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION
IN RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY THAT THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CENTERS MAY NOT
BE VERTICALLY ALIGNED...WITH THE LOW LEVEL CENTER BEING SLIGHTLY FARTHER
TO THE SW THAN THE POSITION GIVEN ABOVE.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

Reduced size ( 28 K), click image to get full-sized image ( 181 K).

[Dave W]

Indeed Paul, Porquerolles an island just off the coast was reporting gusts to 154km /hr , 96mph very close to the core of the tropical feature ..Im sure this will do a lot of damage on the island.
http://en.wikipedia....ki/Porquerolles

[Dave W]

Toulon-21Z
Isle de Levant - 71mm rain in last 7 hours since 1500 and wind ENE 47kt G80kt

[Dave K]

Structure appears to be degrading as far as a TMS is concerned.

[Bazmundo]

Some Meteosat-9 Vis and IR comparison anims on the CIMSS blog: http://cimss.ssec.wi...g/archives/9122

[P.K.]

For the record the last three Dvorak bulletins on this.

TXMM21 KNES 090023
TCSMED

A. 01M (NONAME)

B. 09/0000Z

C. 42.6N

D. 6.4E

E. THREE/MET-9

F. T2.0/3.0/W1.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...01M HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. SWIR
SUGGESTS LLCC HAS BECOME DECOUPLED TO THE S AND E OF MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. ESSENTIALLY ALL CONVECTION HAD DISSIPATED, YIELDING A DT OF 0.0.
MET = 1.5 AND PT = 1.5. FT IS BASED ON DVORAK CONSTRAINTS ALLOWING FOR
A CHANGE IN FT OF ONLY 1.0 IN SIX HOURS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...GUILLOT

-----

TXMM21 KNES 090627
TCSMED

A. 01M (NONAME)

B. 09/0600Z

C. 42.7N

D. 6.1E

E. THREE/MET-9

F. T1.0/2.0/W2.0/12HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 01M. DT AND PT = 1.0.
FT IS BASED ON RAPID WEAKENING.

NIL


...KIBLER

---

TXMM21 KNES 091219
TCSMED

A. 01M (NONAME)

B. 09/1200Z

C. 43.2N

D. 4.7E

E. THREE/MET-9

F. TOO WEAK

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CENTER HAS BEEN RELOCATED BASED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE
CIRCULATION HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS
AND IS NO LONGER CLASSIFIABLE BY DVORAK STANDARDS. THIS WILL BE THE
FINAL BULLETIN ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

[Andy Mayhew]

A good, factual, article in the Cyprus Mail about the storm:

http://www.cyprus-ma...ranean/20111111

[Dave W]

Be good to have such factually correct articles in the English press!

[Dave K]

That's a really good news article