: COAMPS-TC™ The New Most Accurate Hurricane Intensity Model -

Jump to content

Page 1 of 1
  • You cannot start a new topic
  • You cannot reply to this topic

COAMPS-TC™ The New Most Accurate Hurricane Intensity Model

#1 User is offline   Bazmundo 

  • Group: Warnings Team
  • Posts: 6020
  • Joined: 08-May 09
  • LocationNewcastle-u-lyme, Staffs

Posted 18 November 2011 - 23:57

Set to become operational at FNMOC in 2013, the COAMPS-TC is today being lauded as the most accurate current model for tropical cyclones based on 2011 results, as well as retrospective analyses of the '05 and '08 seasons. It apparently averaged a 6kt error for Hurricane Irene 3-day forecasts.

Some info from the NRL Monterey site and homepage:

Quote

Overview

The Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) is the Navy high-resolution regional operational prediction system. COAMPS is developed by NRL and consists of data quality control, data assimilation, initialization, a non-hydrostatic atmospheric model and a hydrostatic ocean model (Hodur 1997). The Arakawa C grid is used for both the atmospheric and ocean models. The atmospheric model utilizes the sigma-z vertical coordinate and the ocean model uses the hybrid Sigma/z. A version of COAMPS has recently been developed which is dedicated to the prediction of tropical cyclones (COAMPS-TC). For the HFIP tests, the model is run on a Mercator projection with one fixed coarse mesh domain and either two or three moving, two-way interactive nested domains.

Initialization

The Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) fields are used to provide the first guess field for the cold start and the COAMPS output from previous 12-hour simulations is used as the first guess for the warm start. A relocation method is used to place the vortex at the officially issued position in the first guess field for each simulation. Synthetic observations are then used to enhance the initial vortex structure. The NRL Atmospheric Variational Data Assimilation System (NAVDAS) is used to assimilate the observational data.

Lateral Boundary Conditions

COAMPS-TC uses the NOGAPS forecast output on 1-deg grid at a 6-hr interval.

Physics
  • Cumulus: Kain Fritsch Scheme and Shallow Cumulus parameterization
  • Microphysics: Rutledge and Hobbs (1983)
  • PBL: Mellor-Yamada, Dissipative heating (Jin et al 2007)
  • Surface Layer: Louis et al (1979), Wang et al (2002), Sea Spray (Fairall et al. 1993 with recent updates), Level-off drag coefficient for high winds (Donelan et al. 2004)
  • Land Surface: Noah Land Surface Model
  • Radiation: Harshvardardet et al (1987)


0

Share this topic:


Page 1 of 1
  • You cannot start a new topic
  • You cannot reply to this topic

1 User(s) are reading this topic
0 members, 1 guests, 0 anonymous users