[Dave Mc]

Below is a predicted activity with in the solar cycle and I think this will decrease the chances of colder winters over the next 5 years. It shows that 2009/10 was very cold at times and this matches up with the chart below.






The increase is quite sharp over the next few years.

[PK2]

That's rather outdated now. This is more up to date.
(also not the right forum really)

[Howard Kirby]

PK2, on 25 November 2011 - 18:49, said:

That's rather outdated now. This is more up to date.
(also not the right forum really)

Moved to Climate....

[Dave Mc]

Chris Lloyd, on 25 November 2011 - 20:20, said:

Well, even though December 2010 was exceptionally cold, January, Feb and March were not particularly cold. So the dip in solar activity does not really reflect last winter in its entirety. Furthermore, in 1995 when another minima was observed I don't recall there being a particularly bad winter. The 80's stand out as the last time we had some really cold weather.

I understand there is a larger 50 or so years cycle that also comes into effect and I thought it was about to peak, giving us very cold winters like we had in the 50's, before dropping off again.

Agreed about last winter however 4-6 weeks of very cold snowy weather from mid to late nov to the end of dec is a well sustained period of cold. However if we had a number of short sharp cold snaps spread out through winter I think people see that as a very cold winter also. I wasnt aware of the 50 year cycle will def have a look at that thanks for the heads up.

[John Mason]

Amazing to think that 12 months ago it was bitterly cold and snowy with -18 being recorded in Powys on the night of the 27th-28th!

However, how does the low solar activity of 2007-2008 explain the rather nondescript winter we had back then?

Cheers - John

[Dave Mc]

I dont think you can say that winters will always be very cold with low solar activity but it was colder than the winters in the early 00`s.

[John Mason]

It'd be interesting to plot the sunspot cycle against Kevin's Winter Index and see what the results look like

Cheers - John

[ldavidcooke]

Hey All,

Some are suggesting the madden-julian multidecadal, others the NAO Index. As to Solar insolation driving the synoptics, I would generally shy away from that linkage, as there are other phenomena with a far greater effect. It would appear that the La Nina pattern this year is similar to the last with a mid-November Indian Summer switching over to full force Winter.

Part of the problem with the nature of the weather pattern this year remains with the high altitude jet stream flow, similar to the pattern that appeared to delay the initial TS season storms. That this pattern is more driven by cooler N. North Pacific patterns would seem to suggest that Chinese aerosols could be involved. The issue still seems to revolve around whether equatorial heat flow is driving the patterns or are the patterns driving the cross latitude heat flow?

[Dave K]

And the problem is that if you look at another solar cycle such as this one, then the harsh UK winter spells in 1978/79 and 1981/82 coincide with a peak in activity just as the cold winters of the mid 80s coincide with the trough. And winter 75/76 was a mild winter at the trough of solar cycle 20/21.

You'd have to look at a more global context of course and or at least ask if a predispostion can be shown for troughs in solar cycles to coincide with warmer Canada/Greenland Arctic winters and colder NW Europe for example. Then marry these up with the NAO and/or ENSO, and as Dave Cooke says find a direct cause /effect between solar activity and terrestrial factors to show why seasonal variations rather than a complete correlation still occur.



Source: http://www.solen.inf...r/solcycle.html