[Dave K]

For non-model oriented chat, personal or Alt!Forecasting, moans and groans or insightful chat...

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What a contrast to this time last year, winter was already a couple of weeks old for some - we'd had our first snowfall on the 30th November down here and the "official" start of winter began with an ice day and plunging mercury.

Maybe a wintry spell coming up for some this coming weekend?

[Dave K]

Netweather Snow Risk map suggests a 30% chance of snow as far south as Lincolnshire on Monday although more likely to be sleet at low levels? Low risk area also includes NI. Higher risk, about 65%+ for over 400m in the Scottish highlands and Lowlands.

[Andy Mayhew]

Forget snow, I'm just wondering when I'm going to see my first air frost of the autumn winter? Possibly not till the 10th Dec based on latest GFS charts!

[Chris Alder]

Andy Mayhew, on 30 November 2011 - 15:19, said:

Forget snow, I'm just wondering when I'm going to see my first air frost of the autumn winter? Possibly not till the 10th Dec based on latest GFS charts!

Long may it continue, think of all the cash we are not giving to the power companies.

But apart from a breif cold incursion from the north or north west a continuation of Autumn looks likely.

[PK2]

Although still autumn I think I saw some snow on the highest peaks of the Welsh mountains today. Not completely sure though, could have been hail...

[Dave K]

Chris Alder, on 30 November 2011 - 15:21, said:

Long may it continue, think of all the cash we are not giving to the power companies.

But apart from a breif cold incursion from the north or north west a continuation of Autumn looks likely.

And last December was pretty much a nationwide clusterfrak for transport and the retail sector in the run up to Christmas. Economically the UK could really do without a repeat this year.

[Ian Williams]

Checking my records which go back to 1996, the winter of 2002/2003 my first air frost did not occur until 5th January 2003! The winter of 2008 i had one air frost in October (though technically autumn) the next air frost wasn`t until 3rd January.

So in all both Decembers of 2002 and 2008 were frost free. I have never had a frost free January. For February 2000 and 2002 were both frost free.

[summer '85]

Ian Williams, on 30 November 2011 - 15:44, said:

Checking my records which go back to 1996, the winter of 2002/2003 my first air frost did not occur until 5th January 2003! The winter of 2008 i had one air frost in October (though technically autumn) the next air frost wasn`t until 3rd January.

So in all both Decembers of 2002 and 2008 were frost free. I have never had a frost free January. For February 2000 and 2002 were both frost free.

That is a surprise about December 2008 considering it wasn't a mild month.

[Ian Williams]

summer, on 30 November 2011 - 16:21, said:

That is a surprise about December 2008 considering it wasn't a mild month.

Yes one of those oddities that gets thrown up sometimes, looking at the mins for Dec 2008 they were all cool and none really mild but none cold enough for an air frost


uploads/monthly_11_2011/post-30656-0-59377000-1322671211_thumb.gif

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[PK2]

Ian Williams, on 30 November 2011 - 16:40, said:

Yes one of those oddities that gets thrown up sometimes, looking at the mins for Dec 2008 they were all cool and none really mild but none cold enough for an air frost


uploads/monthly_11_2011/post-30656-0-59377000-1322671211_thumb.gif

is it just the case that whilst the mins were high the maxs were low. Thus giving a cool average month but without frosts???

[Ian Williams]

PK2, on 30 November 2011 - 16:42, said:

is it just the case that whilst the mins were high the maxs were low. Thus giving a cool average month but without frosts???

Below are my December maxes, 2nd one is the means, the 3rd which probably shows it better is the anomalies. Before 2008, December 2005 and 1996 were colder.


uploads/monthly_11_2011/post-30656-0-33653200-1322671945_thumb.gifuploads/monthly_11_2011/post-30656-0-71015800-1322671956_thumb.gifuploads/monthly_11_2011/post-30656-0-61085500-1322671963_thumb.gif

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[Andy Mayhew]

Big Dave, on 30 November 2011 - 15:40, said:

And last December was pretty much a nationwide clusterfrak for transport and the retail sector in the run up to Christmas. Economically the UK could really do without a repeat this year.

Aye, it's going to be a poor Christmas on the High Street as it is, without the weather throwing in the boot as well. Fortunately, no signs of that though, whatever certain persons have forecast! Which reminds me, still awaiting PC's excuses

http://www.weatherac...e.asp?a=394&c=5

[Dave K]

Andy Mayhew, on 30 November 2011 - 17:19, said:

Aye, it's going to be a poor Christmas on the High Street as it is, without the weather throwing in the boot as well. Fortunately, no signs of that though, whatever certain persons have forecast! Which reminds me, still awaiting PC's excuses

http://www.weatherac...e.asp?a=394&c=5

Oh he's given them

Quote

● Giant filament across sun when forecast slipped 16-18 Nov.
● Cold blast postponed but still coming says Piers.

On 19th Oct Piers Corbyn, astrophysicist of WeatherAction.com announced at the Congress of Brilliant Minds in Madrid his forecast that Britain and West Europe will be generally exceptionally cold from around Nov 27 to Dec 28 (80% confidence). The build-up to such a blast has however been slow. What is going on? Piers says "As we mentioned on http://bit.ly/sOFjJe the first ~ ten days of November were very mild as we forecast but the second ~ten days have not shown much of the cooling we expected. We now think it noteworthy that this deviation from the forecast – while anyway being in a lower confidence period (see http://bit.ly/tpTL3q ) – coincided with a rare giant 800,000km filament across the Sun

This post has been edited by Big Dave's Gusset: 30 November 2011 - 17:49

[HSEA2]

I shall now divulge my FINAL winter prediction's

DECEMBER
CET +2.5c above average
Rainfall: 50% of average
Sunshine: 95% of average

No snow at low levels south of a line from the Severn estuary to the wash

JANUARY
CET +2.5c above average
Rainfall: 65% of average
Sunshine: Average

Only snow falling at low levels, no days lying

FEBRUARY
CET: 1.5c above average
Rainfall: 140% of average
Sunshine 75% of average

A short cold spell towards the end. 2 or 3 days of lying snow in the South at most.


All in all a mild winter, quite different from the last two.

[Andy Mayhew]

I'm thinking the post Christmas Period and January give the best chances of cold and snowy weather this winter. Most forecasts seem to be going either for a repeat of last winter , but colder, (already a fail, whatever wierd mumbo-jumbo excuse you give, Mr Corbyn) or for a cold end to winter with Jan and Feb seening the coldest weather.. But I think we'll see another early spring. And overall a pretty average winter, perhaps a little above average in terms of CET.

Edit: that's based on the new SLAPin't'FACE Mk 7b lunar-tectonic forecasting model incorporating new Jovian II technology. None of which was paid for by subscribers.

[Dave W]

Actually Jan and Feb '11 were quite mild, it was only Dec '10 that was cold..

[Dave K]

My top secret Red Top SLUTSLIT Better than the MetO Anyday System^_TM says January will be the coldest and snowiest month of the three winter months for most of the UK, February cool and dry and December a mix of rainy & windy with PM feeds of wintry showers dragged in from time to time.

Really what many of us need (given the long term rainfall deficits in places) is a wet winter but saying that is never popular. That doesn't have to mean "mild muck"- it could be cool and wet with short cold and snowy spells mixed in for those who want a bit of snow and slipping about on pavements and roads...

[Ian Williams]

HSEA2, on 30 November 2011 - 17:57, said:

I shall now divulge my FINAL winter prediction's

DECEMBER
CET +2.5c above average
Rainfall: 50% of average
Sunshine: 95% of average

No snow at low levels south of a line from the Severn estuary to the wash

JANUARY
CET +2.5c above average
Rainfall: 65% of average
Sunshine: Average

Only snow falling at low levels, no days lying

FEBRUARY
CET: 1.5c above average
Rainfall: 140% of average
Sunshine 75% of average

A short cold spell towards the end. 2 or 3 days of lying snow in the South at most.


All in all a mild winter, quite different from the last two.

Well if your +2.5C anomaly for December comes off it will come close to being the warmest year on record, according to Hadley Centre ....

"" The highest annual mean CET ever recorded was 10.82 which is 1.35 higher than normal. To beat this record the anomaly must be higher than 2.66 for the remainder of the year ""

[Strider]

Dave W, on 30 November 2011 - 18:46, said:

Actually Jan and Feb '11 were quite mild, it was only Dec '10 that was cold..

Feb was, not sure about Jan?

Anyway mine (thanks to HSEA2 for the format )

DECEMBER
CET +1.5c above average
Rainfall: 90% of average

A couple of PM incursions bringing snow to Scotland and northern hills, but nothing notable or prolonged.

JANUARY
CET +0.5c above average
Rainfall: 80% of average

Starting mild but then a notable cold snap towards the end of the month.

FEBRUARY
CET: 1.0c below average
Rainfall: 90% of average

Continuing cold from the end of Jan, warming up by the end of the month to drag the CET up.

[Howard Kirby]

Dave W, on 30 November 2011 - 18:46, said:

Actually Jan and Feb '11 were quite mild, it was only Dec '10 that was cold..

Jan was below average http://www.climate-u...provisional.htm although it probably seemed mild after the Dec we had!