[Summertumn1]

I remember at the start of December 2009 it was really mild and people were saying it would stay that way all winter. Oops.

[Ian Williams]

Howard Kirby, on 30 November 2011 - 20:41, said:

Jan was below average http://www.climate-u...provisional.htm although it probably seemed mild after the Dec we had!

Hadley Centre had January as 0.1C below the 1961-1990 marker

http://www.metoffice..._info_mean.html

[skanky]

Howard Kirby, on 30 November 2011 - 20:41, said:

Jan was below average http://www.climate-u...provisional.htm although it probably seemed mild after the Dec we had!

Slightly above average compared to 61-90. I know the more recent baseline is more relevant to nowadays, but it is a point worth noting.
http://www.metoffice.../anomalygraphs/

Edited to point out that this is not CET.

This post has been edited by skanky: 30 November 2011 - 21:15

[Howard Kirby]

Still hardly mild though whichever dataset you use...

[d.patterson]

Very minimal sun spot activity baseline through solar output, cooling trend set to start from Friday. Current data shows 2 weeks out a drop to approx an avg of 4 degrees C.

[Dave Mc]

http://www.wetterzen...n/fsavneur.html a northerly westerly produces 12c-14c in the south and 4-7c in the north in mid Decemeber. Is something not right here or is 204 hrs to far in FI and throws numbers and basic temp forecasting thrown out the window here?

[summer '85]

It seems to be a common misperception about last winter that January and February were mild. Infact last winter was one severely cold month, one month close to average and one very mild month. I think the lack of snow has distorted perception of that January.

[Dave Mc]

I understand your point but the source of the directon is beyond Greenland and Iceland so surely it surely it should cooler than the values than that. I guess my point is, is it a GFS forecasting issuse or just a flaw in the transisition in the change in direction and the time pulling the temp out the model.

[summer '85]

Dave Mc, on 01 December 2011 - 07:00, said:

I understand your point but the source of the directon is beyond Greenland and Iceland so surely it surely it should cooler than the values than that. I guess my point is, is it a GFS forecasting issuse or just a flaw in the transisition in the change in direction and the time pulling the temp out the model.

Sorry but are you talking to yourself because no one has answered your point?

[Dave Mc]

sorry I thought you were making the point that december was a very a cold month last winter and that it generaly got milder through out last winer and that we should expect it being milder through out december.

[PK2]

Dave Mc, on 01 December 2011 - 07:12, said:

sorry I thought you were making the point that december was a very a cold month last winter and that it generaly got milder through out last winer and that we should expect it being milder through out december.

I'd read it as a post about historical weather and not a prediction for future weather. It wasn't said in relation to your post #26 but to other posts earlier in the thread

[Andy Mayhew]

Chris Lloyd, on 01 December 2011 - 12:14, said:

Hmmmm!

?????

Anyway, to answer Dave's question, it's not unknown for temps in the south to rach 14c in mid December - and with a predominately west or northwesterly airflow we can quite expect to see occasions where the southern half of the country is under milder air from the south whilst the northern half has colder Arctic air - and quite a big temperature gradient exists.

[Andy Mayhew]

Btw, of the various winter forecasts I've seen, the one which currently strikes me as most likely is Brian Gaze's (Theweatheroutlook)

[Dave Mc]

No disrespect to any long range forcasters however I cant believe people are trying to predict January and Februarys weather now. Its easy to say it will be mild at times with cooler to colder out breaks with near average precipitation its pretty obvious it will be mild cool and cold at some point!!. Its all very vague and to be honest I dont read long range forcasts at all.Sorry if i seem a bit off about this subject!!

This post has been edited by Dave Mc: 01 December 2011 - 14:04

[skanky]

Andy Mayhew, on 01 December 2011 - 13:15, said:

Btw, of the various winter forecasts I've seen, the one which currently strikes me as most likely is Brian Gaze's (Theweatheroutlook)

I tried to post this at your winter forecast page, but Blogger still deletes my comments.

Costing The Earth had Adam Scaife on and he gave an unofficial, *tentative* forecast. It's on listen again here http://www.bbc.co.uk...rammes/b006r4wn and isn't an overly long way in.

[Dave K]

Well I did say we needed rain this winter and we're certainly getting it today.

[Andy Mayhew]

skanky, on 01 December 2011 - 14:35, said:

I tried to post this at your winter forecast page, but Blogger still deletes my comments.

Costing The Earth had Adam Scaife on and he gave an unofficial, *tentative* forecast. It's on listen again here http://www.bbc.co.uk...rammes/b006r4wn and isn't an overly long way in.

O/T but I notice i get email notifications that you've posted a comment - but as you say, nothing shows up!

Chris Lloyd, on 01 December 2011 - 14:29, said:

Interesting:

You write this about Jonathon Powell

"Looks like a good summary of the sort of typical winter weather we get in Britain then. This forecast was dated 18th Oct - it may well change."

Is this a pointed comment? Or to use your words, what are you getting at?

Definitely pointed - though I'm more scathing on my blog of PC

Dave Mc, on 01 December 2011 - 14:03, said:

No disrespect to any long range forcasters however I cant believe people are trying to predict January and Februarys weather now. Its easy to say it will be mild at times with cooler to colder out breaks with near average precipitation its pretty obvious it will be mild cool and cold at some point!!. Its all very vague and to be honest I dont read long range forcasts at all.Sorry if i seem a bit off about this subject!!

One reason I think why the MetO just do a 30 day outlook - and even that is usually fairly general though they proved pretty accurate this time last year.