[Dave W]

Tend to agree. I ve stopped issuing seasonal forecasts myself partly because of this..

[Andy Mayhew]

Chris Lloyd, on 01 December 2011 - 18:00, said:

Which brings me to my next point. I had a read of your forecast in your blog; in particular this bit -

"My own thoughts are that we will see some cold and perhaps snowy weather, most likely in December and January, but that for most people it will be nowhere near as harsh as last winter. We could see more milder, stormier, conditions at times as well. In other words, a normal mix of normal weather"

I have to say Andy that this covers just about every possibility. Are you not yourself guilty of what was in fact your pointed comment about Jonathon Powell Loved the "normal mix of normal weather" at the end.

Well I wouldn't describe it as a forecast - and certainly wouldn't sell or advertise it as such. It's just a passing comment, as I often make in my blog. I don't do LRFs - just the weeky ones on UKww. But on the other hand my gut feeing was then (and remains) that this will not be a particularly special winter. Just a fairly bog standard normal one.

And whilst I think I was talking about the possibility of a drought for 2012 months ago But I'l never seriously claim I predicted it.

btw the point of the particular page is to get many of the talked about LRFs together in one place so that afterwards it's easy to look back and see what people were predicting at the time, rather than relying on what they claim they predict. And if James Madden or PWS or PC got it very close, I would applaud them for making a good guess

For winter 2010/11 see here (and yes, as it goes, I was wrong)

[Andy Mayhew]

Chris Lloyd, on 01 December 2011 - 19:06, said:

Our weather is unpredictable and clearly there are no indicators that can be relied upon for a reliable forecast.

Personally I think we should all give up and concentrate on the models a week or so ahead.

I think you're right

But as we know, some media outlets love publishing stories about LRFs - and indeed, moreso, a lot of, especially (younger) cold weather fans, crave LRFs (preferably predicting cold and snow) as well - so whilst the demand exists, someone will aways cater for it.

[Frosty_Hoar]

This is an excerpt from the Met Office's 6-15 day outlook updated: 1148 on Thu 1 Dec 2011

Quote

Snow is likely at times over the hills of northern UK, with some significant snow likely for Scottish mountains with accumulations at lower levels possible here too.

Are we all meant to know where 'here' is? Quiet a poorly written statement for the first sign of cold weather for the season...

This post has been edited by Frosty_Hoar: 01 December 2011 - 19:38

[Andy Mayhew]

I would interpret that as meaning in the Scottish Highlands - it's much as I've said in my mountain forecast today. Probably not coasts, but inland across Sutherland, Lochaber, the Central Highlands and Cairngorms.

[summer '85]

A long way to go for this month but it is peculiar how December "seems" to be resisting yet again the warming trend as past Decembers have over recent years. The last 3 months have been dominated by mild weather and we enter December and what happens? We enter a spell of potentially cold zonality, not mild zonailty but cold zonality

[Bazmundo]

First gritter sighting round here this evening, just after 9pm. Not sure it'll drop below for too long, but good to see they're keen I suppose.

[HSEA2]

summer, on 03 December 2011 - 06:37, said:

A long way to go for this month but it is peculiar how December "seems" to be resisting yet again the warming trend as past Decembers have over recent years. The last 3 months have been dominated by mild weather and we enter December and what happens? We enter a spell of potentially cold zonality, not mild zonailty but cold zonality

I dont think there is much in the way of a greenland or Scandinavian high this year, so pretty sure itll return to oct/nov norm of being 2c or so above average soon enough.

[Summertumn1]

I cannot remember any December that I would describe as being truly mild in the same way some Januaries and Februaries have been - the cloest we have come in the last 2 decades have been 1994 and 2006, and even those two have been beaten by many Jans and Febs over the same period. I was kind of thinking maybe this Dec would finally give us a mild one but it doesn't look like it's going to, I expect it will end up about average which would still make it the warmest for 5 years.

[Dave W]

HSEA2, on 05 December 2011 - 02:19, said:

I dont think there is much in the way of a greenland or Scandinavian high this year, so pretty sure itll return to oct/nov norm of being 2c or so above average soon enough.

Im not sure it will.. I think itll be pretty close to average tbh.. I went for +0.4C on the CET on my monthly forecast on Nov 30th

[Andy Mayhew]

Still awaiting my first air frost and atm GFS suggests I could have a long wait

Previously latest date was 1st Dec 2009.

[Duncan Railton]

Well this is "normal" winter weather and it looks like its going to be a chilly week. Still can't see a cold block developing this year, the jet stream seems more active. Periodic northerlies I would imagine (and probably be wrong)

[Strider]

The teleconnections all suggest we are in for an extended period of zonality. We may get occasional blasts of PM air like recently but frankly there is likely to be little of interest for a while beyond the end of this week

[Dave K]

So that "rare giant 800,000km filament across the sun" certainly put the kibosh on things didn't it, guess we can blame these storms on that, wonder how long its effect is supposed to last.

Glorious winter sunshine today

[Dave K]

As from tomorrow the 14th, sunset starts to get later each day again - OK so only by about 3 seconds tomorrow (depending on location) but it's a start. Downside is that sunrise carries on getting later until the 1st Jan...

[Strider]

Big Dave, on 13 December 2011 - 14:44, said:

As from tomorrow the 14th, sunset starts to get later each day again - OK so only by about 3 seconds tomorrow (depending on location) but it's a start. Downside is that sunrise carries on getting later until the 1st Jan...

What's that effect called again where the latest sunrise and sunset don't correlate?

[Dave K]

Strider, on 13 December 2011 - 14:53, said:

What's that effect called again where the latest sunrise and sunset don't correlate?

Can't remember, but it is due to the obliquity, tilt of the ecliptic and the equation of time: http://curious.astro....php?number=208

Analemma? Is that the right word?

[Ian Williams]

With a max of just 6.5C today it felt like winter for the first time. This is my coldest maximum since 1st March