[Dave K]

Ian Williams, on 14 December 2011 - 16:32, said:

With a max of just 6.5C today it felt like winter for the first time. This is my coldest maximum since 1st March

Strange how often this month the highest temperature has been during the night...

[Ian Williams]

Big Dave, on 14 December 2011 - 16:41, said:

Strange how often this month the highest temperature has been during the night...

Indeed my 2nd highest max of 12.1C occurred at 2117hrs on the 13th and stayed at that amount until 2142hrs, data logger records every 5 minutes.

[Andy Mayhew]

Big Dave, on 14 December 2011 - 16:41, said:

Strange how often this month the highest temperature has been during the night...

Yes, something I've noticed quite a lot over the past couple of weeks or so.

Yesterday for example gave 11.1c just after midnight but it was down to 3.0c at 14.40z.

However today's max of 4.5c - lowest since 3rd March - was at 12.20z (assuming temps won't rise again tonight!)

[Dave K]

The warmish fronts just keep arriving after dark and before dawn here this month

	HIGH
DAY	°C	TIME
1	12.2	07:20
2	8.6	00:00
3	11.7	12:20
4	9.3	15:00
5	6.7	12:40
6	6.8	20:00
7	8.9	03:30
8	12.2	18:50
9	7.9	13:40
10	5.7	14:10
11	8.7	21:40
12	9.7	00:00
13	11.7	02:20
14	6.6	00:40

[HSEA2]

Its been pleasantly sunny most of december here in the east, i suspect due to mostly westerly winds. Most days seem to have more or less unbroken sunshine from dawn till 1pm or so, then some cloud till about 3, then it breaks up again. I suspect most days are getting 5-6 hours. Royston Weather station is on 50 hours despite not even half the month being up, compared to under 38 hours for the entirity of last december and a long term monthly average of 48 hours at Cambridge.

Official aggregates so far range from 46 hours at Coleshill, to just 4 hours at Prestwick!

[Foxy2]

Yesterday was a classic example of cold day warm night! Temperatures were 1-3 degrees all day then rose to 4-5 through the night. Liscombe and dunkeswell hourly data on Ogimet show this very well. Horribly haily rain on and off all night too with gales following the mornings hail and snow.

[Dave K]

HSEA2, on 15 December 2011 - 01:51, said:

Its been pleasantly sunny most of december here in the east, i suspect due to mostly westerly winds. Most days seem to have more or less unbroken sunshine from dawn till 1pm or so, then some cloud till about 3, then it breaks up again. I suspect most days are getting 5-6 hours. Royston Weather station is on 50 hours despite not even half the month being up, compared to under 38 hours for the entirity of last december and a long term monthly average of 48 hours at Cambridge.

Official aggregates so far range from 46 hours at Coleshill, to just 4 hours at Prestwick!

Sunshine is already close to the monthly average here too with only half December gone. East Mailling is at 44.1 hours compared to 1961 - 1990 average of 46.6.

Foxy2, on 15 December 2011 - 09:51, said:

Yesterday was a classic example of cold day warm night! Temperatures were 1-3 degrees all day then rose to 4-5 through the night. Liscombe and dunkeswell hourly data on Ogimet show this very well. Horribly haily rain on and off all night too with gales following the mornings hail and snow.

Not as bad as that here but today's maxima yet again likely to have occurred during the dark hours, 7.8 °C at 06:01. Granted that the dark hours are very long at this time of year but still. On the plus side the clear skies in the daylight following clearance of fronts are giving us plenty of sunshine.

[Strider]

Severe cold METO? Really?

http://www.metoffice...ldweatheralert/

[Chris Alder]

Strider, on 18 December 2011 - 15:57, said:

Severe cold METO? Really?

http://www.metoffice...ldweatheralert/

Certainly seems a tad OTT!

[Dave K]

Andy Mayhew, on 30 November 2011 - 17:19, said:

Aye, it's going to be a poor Christmas on the High Street as it is, without the weather throwing in the boot as well. Fortunately, no signs of that though, whatever certain persons have forecast! Which reminds me, still awaiting PC's excuses

http://www.weatherac...e.asp?a=394&c=5

I think we can now incontravertably say EPIC FAIL

[Dave K]

No-one seems to be going for any prolonged cold for January, fair to say all the forecasts are on the bland side:

UKMO at http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

And here we go then, the word from the Alt!Forecasting gurus

more "torpedo" lows

Quote

- January. "Jan 2012 will be an exciting month of sharp contrasts - Often windy with a number of 'torpedo lows' somewhat like ~15-17 Dec followed by wintry blasts of hail sleet snow and thundersnow at SPECIFIED dates which he gave to the meeting and which are in the full 45day forecast.

Quote

January – wet North and West, drier South and East

The first month of 2012 looks like being characterised by a changeable, occasionally cold North, and an often mild, at times drier South. As a result many northern regions will often experience breezy, cloudier and wet weather but also some chillier, showery interludes - some of which will be wintry in nature. The prospect of prolonged wintry activity looks however unlikely, although colder cells embedded within the overall flow will provide the North, especially upland districts, with temporary snow cover. Strong winds may also be a feature for these regions. Drier conditions, with some sunshine but overnight occasionally severe frost will be more frequent in the South. Some southern and eastern areas may witness cloud or fog formation, at times persistent, giving an overall cold feel. January’s temperatures will approach the norm. Southern and eastern areas may be drier than the average, northern and western regions are likely to be wetter.

[gord]

Yes, all looking a bit dull going into and through January. A few hints of more interesting things in the models but nothing strong enough to convince me of a change just yet. Lots of time for that to happen though.

However, it's not all dull. These fronts that have been sweeping through every 5 or 6 days cause some temporary excitement. As long as we keep getting a few more of those, then it'll break up the grey and nothing days a bit.

Looking forward to the last two thirds of winter...something exciting should happen, it might be another large Atlantic storm or it might be snow. Who knows? It's a bright and blustery day today...one of the kinds of days I love!

[Dave W]

Actually looking quite cold looking at the GFS ensembles now at 06z today as we go into Jan across the north & certainly unsettled.. less so in S/SE but not looking settled here either
Heres the north of Scotland http://www.meteociel...433962264150942

[Andy Mayhew]

This thread seems to have dropped by the wayside. Can't think why

Anyway, time to ressurect it! Because - and I emphasis, it is not April1st today - this is the latest MetO 15 day outlook:

Quote

UK Outlook for Sunday 22 Jan 2012 to Tuesday 31 Jan 2012:
Sunday is likely to be chilly and windy, with a mixture of sunny spells and scattered showers. Showers should be most frequent in the north, with snow on hills, whilst the south should remain driest. Similar conditions will likely persist through the following days, with further showers and some more persistent rain likely to affect many areas. Temperatures will probably be near average, occasionally mild, but with overnight frosts possible in any quieter interludes. There is considerable uncertainty regarding the weather during the last few days of January. The slightly more probable scenario at present is that conditions will remain similar to those described above. However there is also a significant risk of much colder weather becoming established right across the UK, with snow in places and widespread overnight frosts.

Updated: 1310 on Tue 17 Jan 2012

And no update as yet for the 30 day Outlook


Winter at last?

[Chris Alder]

Andy Mayhew, on 17 January 2012 - 14:15, said:

Winter at last?

Hope not, a couple of frosty mornings were nice but thats enough thank you! Reasons it should stay mild from now on are listed below

1. I've hardly spent anything on heating this winter with it being mild!

2. I've not had to waste time defrosting my car in the morning!

3. My new car hasn't been exposed to lots of salt on the road!

4. I don't like wearing big coats - in fact without doing a Mitchelin Man impression I can't wear a suit jacket and a coat!

5. I don't like being cold!

[Strider]

The two potential scenarios could hardly be any more different!

Quote

UK Outlook for Wednesday 1 Feb 2012 to Wednesday 15 Feb 2012:

The forecast for the first half of February is very uncertain. As with the day 6 to 15 forecast, there appear to be two main scenarios, each equally probable, but which are very different. It is also fairly likely that the prevailing weather type at the end of January will continue into February. The first scenario consists of a changeable westerly or southwesterly type, with rain at times (amounts greatest in the west), and with temperatures noticeably above average for early February, with only occasional frosts. The alternative scenario is that very much colder weather, with winds from an easterly or northeasterly quarter, will prevail well into February, bringing widespread frosts, and snow to some areas. In this scenario it would be the east that was most vulnerable to snowfall.
Updated: 1436 on Tue 17 Jan 2012

[Andy Mayhew]

It seem then, that if it turns cold towards the end of this month, then the first half of Feb will also be cold. But if we remain under an unsettled westerly set-up, then Feb will be milder and unsettled. All eyes then on 2 weeks time

I think if we don't get the colder solution then, then that really will be it for winter .

[Andy Mayhew]

How mild has it been this winter?

Quote

At the halfway point of January and winter as a whole, many people have been asking about what we’ve seen so far and how things are likely to end up in the records.

Looking at January, half-month figures show it has been a mild start to 2012 – with UK mean temperatures 2.1 °C above average.

This gives a mean (including night-time and day-time temperatures) of 5.5 °C, which – if it stayed the same – would place it as one of the warmer January’s in climate records which go back to 1910.

However, we have to be very cautious about using half-monthly statistics as they don’t really tell us much – things can change dramatically in the second half of a month so it is far too early to make any judgements.

December was a slightly milder than average month, but at just 0.6 °C above the UK long-term average for mean temperatures it wasn’t that remarkable. If you combine those with the half month figures for January, the winter so far has been milder than average.

Like the half-monthly figures, however, it’s far too early to say how this winter as a whole will fare in the records as (meteorologically speaking) we are only half way through – with the rest of January and all of February to go.

Traditionally these are the colder months of the winter, and with more changeable conditions in the forecast it’s difficult to say how mild, cold or average this season may end up.

[Andy Mayhew]

Quote

Cold weather winning the war of probabilities
25 01 2012 Late last week we put out a blog article about an unusual amount of uncertainty in the longer range forecast (for the start of February onwards) for the UK.

This is because the atmosphere is currently in a finely balanced state and, depending on which way it goes, this could lead to a continuation of milder weather or a switch to much colder conditions – with frosts, snow and ice possible.

It comes down to whether we’ll continue to see the current pattern of westerly winds bringing in milder conditions from the Atlantic, or whether a high pressure system developing over Russia will extend towards the UK to bring in cold air on easterly winds.

The Met Office and forecast centres around the world have been studying this situation closely but the 50/50 split on which outcome is the most likely has persisted – until now.

It now looks as if the scenario for colder conditions is slightly more likely, but our forecasters stress that a lot of uncertainty remains and milder weather could return.

Full article:

http://metofficenews...-probabilities/

[Andy Mayhew]

No comment on the latest MetO forecast?

Quote

Today:
A breezy, showery and chilly day in most western parts, with showers falling as sleet or hail to low levels at times, but snow in upland areas. Thunder likely in places. Fewer showers and more sunshine in the east.


Tonight:
A cold night for most areas with widespread frost. Showers continuing in many western and northern areas, still generally as snow on high ground, bringing a risk of icy patches.


Friday:
Further showers for many areas, with some snow possible to lower levels in central and northern England. Drier and brighter spells likely too, especially southeastern and, later, northern areas.