[Uskys]

Quote

Saturday
Saturday will start largely dry day some sunny periods, although it may become cloudier in the afternoon with outbreaks of rain and some snow over the peaks. It will be slightly less cold than previous days and the freezing level will be around 600 metres. Winds will be mainly light.
Sunday
Sunday looks likely to be a largely cloudy day, with the likelihood of outbreaks of rain, sleet or snow affecting the National Park at times. The freezing level will most likely be around the summits. Winds will increase during the day and periods of hill fog are likely.
Monday
Mostly cloudy with outbreaks of rain, perhaps heavy at times, and an increasing chance of hill snow as the freezing level lowers. Hill fog likely. Significant uncertainty regarding precipitation details at this stage. Moderate winds.

Meto forecast for the brecon beacons

[Andy Mayhew]

Aye, we don't know how quickly the fronts will push in from the west, nor colder air arrive from the east (if it does) and therefore we don't know whether we'll get rain or snow, or when. Great innit Everyone's been looking for record cold from the east in Feb and the real battle starts this weekend.

[PK2]

At least Snowdonia is living up to it's name again . At a rough guess it looks like the snowline is around 500m or so over the Carneddau ...
Down at 200m it's about +2C and cold rain

[Dave K]

UKMO are currently going for snow down here on Monday, though it's fairly marginal given the temperatures and perhaps mainly over 200m. It's certainly been in the model runs of late.

[Dave K]

UKMO seem to have chnaged their minds for Monday here. In fact from tomorrow through to the middle of next week it looks extremely drab, rather cold with NE winds and stubborn cloud sheets maybe some snizzle early in the week under the edge of the HP, but then dry with low diurnal ranges.

More interesting than what we've had lately? Not blinking likely!

[Andy Mayhew]

Well the MetO have made their minds up about one thing - February, especially in the south, is going to be cold and snowy ......

Quote

UK Outlook for Saturday 11 Feb 2012 to Saturday 25 Feb 2012:
Cold weather looks likely during this period, with both daytime maximum and nighttime minimum temperatures likely to be below or well below average in southern areas, and still below average in the north. Rainfall amounts should be around average in northern areas, with some snow at times. Further south rainfall is likely to be above average with some prolonged spells of rain possible, with also a risk of some significant falls of snow. Sunshine amounts will probably be around or slightly above average.

Updated: 1407 on Fri 27 Jan 2012

[Dave W]

Certainly a very risky forecaat as cold spells like this tend to be dry in the main.. its very unusual to see cold & wet weather in the south ..esp as its been quite dry so far this winter , personally Im not buying into it atm!

[Andy Mayhew]

Yes, the reference to above average precipitation is interesting (not least because we haven't had that round here since Oct 2010) - possibly expecting channel lows and/or Atlantic fronts running up against the cold block? Can't see an easterly flow itself producing that much.

Or possibly they've simply decided to fill the hole left by the demise of PWS and come up with the most gutter press-friendly forecast they could think of, regardless of likelihood?

[Andy Mayhew]

And so it begins .....

Quote

Colder weather will affect the UK over the next few days as weather from the east wins the battle for dominance against the milder conditions that have prevailed so far this winter. Temperatures are likely to be below average this weekend and through next week, bringing the longest spell of colder weather so far this winter.

~ ~ ~


Chris Tubbs, Chief Forecaster at the Met Office, said: "At the moment we have a high pressure system over eastern Europe trying to push cold air in from the east, while milder Atlantic air is trying to push in from the west.

"The colder air is set to win over the next few days, bringing a risk of snow to western areas on Monday morning. Looking further ahead into February, there is uncertainty over how this finely balanced situation will play out, with colder conditions more likely to dominate but milder weather could still return."

http://www.metoffice...ther-setting-in

[skanky]

https://www.youtube....rg&feature=plcp

[JOKE_SNOW]

GFS is wanting to keep snow-levels confined to the northwest of the UK (think of a L shape along the coast from Lancaster to north Wales stretching inland.) However much uncertainty at this time, mountain area weather was supposed to be clearing skies this afternoon with 90% chance of cloud-free summits but we've had nothing but consistent convection all day with the Irish Sea SSTs and cooler air overhead combined.

It's all to play for from now on though.

[Andy Mayhew]

MetO have now extended the areas covered by their Yellow Watch for snow on Mon/Tues - I just scrape in

[gord]

I'm not surprised they have extend their watch, there is a risk although some still having the precipitation extending no further than Wales.

Also, there are several high level routes in this area so that could also be something they factor in. It may be raining here in Stourbridge but the roads over Clent and Lickey could get very wintry conditions. So a watch/warning are never as relevant in my part of the West Midlands as they are 10 miles away.

[Sunspot]

This is the most boring Winter since last winter lol

[Uskys]

Laura Tobin indicated that the Met Office are going to upgrade their snow warnings for some areas to Amber soon.

[Flatlander]

Interesting seeing the showers over the N Sea - shows what would blow inland if the wind turned easterly.

I wonder whether any of these will scrape down the coast on Monday - eg into the N Yorks Moors. Met Office is suggesting they will.

[Dave K]

The UKMO radar feed that Netweather uses seems to be coping as badly as ever with precip coming in from the E/NE for the SE corner. All of a sudden areas of precip keep appearing suddenly in Essex and Kent (and sometimes disappearing only to re-appear 5 minutes later, or isolated showery blobs in the Thames Estuary merge into a large area once they hit the land...

I thought the UKMO were supposed to be improving coverage to our east?

[Dave K]

Today, the 14th, the 10 minute mean temp for February at my site has gone above freezing for the first time this month..

[Dave K]

Average pressure reading at my site for the first fortnight of February = 1032.7 hPa...could never happen in summer!

[Adam D]

Big Dave, on 15 February 2012 - 10:54, said:

Average pressure reading at my site for the first fortnight of February = 1032.7 hPa...could never happen in summer!

Would be nice if it did though!!!