[Rob B]

M6 buoy to the West of Ireland reporting 985.4mb at 1900Z with a drop of 12.7mb in last 3 hours

[MattyM]

Rob B, on 02 January 2012 - 19:39, said:

M6 buoy to the West of Ireland reporting 985.4mb at 1900Z with a drop of 12.7mb in last 3 hours

Yes fallen 9.6mb in just 2 hours.

Quite impressive

[Adam D]

Thankfully the children are still on holiday tomorrow and it is another bank holiday up here, so there won't be too many people on the road in the morning and early to mid afternoon when the winds are expected to be at their worse.

[Uskys]

The trouble is , apart from Scotland & NI the possible severe weather comes in the form of a squall.... and mostly, these , whilst well forecast in their timings, are mostly liable to prove a 'disappointment' to most. .. however all squall lines are fascinating imo... so much to watch both outside and on the net.
here, pressure is still rising and at 1009.9mb along with temp at 4.8°C.

[skanky]

http://www.gocomics....inus/2012/01/01

[MattyM]

Uskys, on 02 January 2012 - 20:13, said:

The trouble is , apart from Scotland & NI the possible severe weather comes in the form of a squall.... and mostly, these , whilst well forecast in their timings, are mostly liable to prove a 'disappointment' to most. .. however all squall lines are fascinating imo... so much to watch both outside and on the net.
here, pressure is still rising and at 1009.9mb along with temp at 4.8°C.

I don't think so, the swathe of 925hpa winds are quite impressive across the south and southwest of England.

Even without the development of a well defined squall wind gusts will widely reach from 60-70MPH and from 70-80MPH in the southwest and along
some exposed southern coasts.

I think this is an under forecast storm for with a lack of media attention.

A stinjet scenario into northern Ireland southwest Scotland could bring gusts from 80-100mph for a brief period.

[MattyM]

Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 981.4 mb Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -13.4 mb ( Falling Rapidly )

M6 down another 4MB

This post has been edited by MattyM: 02 January 2012 - 20:38

[Uskys]

MattyM, on 02 January 2012 - 20:25, said:

I don't think so, the swathe of 925hpa winds are quite impressive across the south and southwest of England.

Even without the development of a well defined squall wind gusts will widely reach from 60-70MPH and from 70-80MPH in the southwest and along
some exposed southern coasts.

I think this is an under forecast storm for with a lack of media attention.

A stinjet scenario into northern Ireland southwest Scotland could bring gusts from 80-100mph for a brief period.

It still will be associated with the squall line -but keep a check on the where the pressure squeezes the forecasts are, as of now , there are a couple , one over western Ireland at 03-06z and others over mid-wales & the south coast of England from Dartmouth to Dover and one later, 9pm , over Manchester.

The severest winds look likely to be over Scotland near the centre of the Low - on its SW segment... up to 150 miles from the centre. The squall line winds for england & Wales are that and should not last long .. though gales may persist for a while.

[Uskys]

18z ukmo nae has the low less deep and a bit further north

[MattyM]

Looks very similar if not deeper and further south @ +12hrs(18z) comparing to +18hrs (12z)

Looking at it on weatheronline.

Very similar all in all but defo not shallower.

[Uskys]

MattyM, on 02 January 2012 - 22:40, said:

Looks very similar if not deeper and further south @ +12hrs(18z) comparing to +18hrs (12z)

Looking at it on weatheronline.

Very similar all in all but defo not shallower.

which charts are you looking at on WOL .. is it GFS?

[MattyM]

18z NAE



12z NAE

[Uskys]

Matt , I guess its because I'm looking at the modified NAE which was issued at 22:30 and shows a scenario less deep (than the 12z you have posted) (thanks for that).
But I am suprised at the difference between the 2 .( can't post the other cause of copyright stuff)

[Dave W]

18Z NAE is similar to 12Z but a bit deeper slightly earlier and slightly less deep by 12Z but not much in it really..

[MattyM]

M6 still falling a little bit

Down to 978.2 mb

Storm centre to its north.

@ 11PM

Valentia 35 Gust 50
Sherkin 33 Gust 51
(Knots)

[Adam D]

This is the place I go to when something like this is forecast to happen and I must admit that I am slightly worried about things.

Paul Blight was spot on in December 2011, as per usual (well done Paul!), and his latest synoptic update doesn't look that great for up here and down in the SW of Scotland where my in-laws live. I have texted them to take care and I just hope things aren't too bad tomorrow for the people up here in Scotland.

[MattyM]

Valentia gusting to 56KT @ 00zz

[MattyM]

Western and northwestern Ireland getting rampaged now. A sting jet scenario is underway with wind gusts potentially reaching 100mph in the coming hours. This is heading rapidly east please take care and let people know who are in path.

[StratoQ]

Squall just gone thru here now. Noise woke me from sleep!

Temp drop of 3 deg C and very gusty winds.