[Bazmundo]

Please post your forecasts, analysis, discussions, sightings and media of the aurora borealis in here - any questions/comments welcome. The initial post will be for easy monitoring and useful links for members and guests.

---

Real-time monitoring from the NOAA (ACE and POES satellite auroral monitoring):






Other real-time monitoring links:

Magnetosphere Simulation
Kiruna and Lycksele Magnetograms (Sweden)
AurorawatchUK and Crooktree magnetogram (Scotland)
Ground Induced Geomagnetic Currents (Finland)
Geomagnetic Pulsations (various UK - BGS)
NOAA GOES Satellite Plots

Alerts, Bulletins and Warnings:

NOAA Space Weather Prediction Centre - Current Alerts (graphical timeline)
NOAA SWPC Alerts (& other useful links)
SIDC/RWC Bulletins and Alerts (Belgium, other useful data links)

Forecasts and Analyses:

NOAA SWPC Daily Geophysical Summary
NOAA SWPC 3-Day Geophysical Forecast (& daily analysis)
IPS STELab Forecast and Analysis (Japan, only available Spring-Autumn)

Solar Wind Modelling and Forecasting:

NASA SWPC WSA-ENLIL Model (most appropriate recent CME-based run)
SWPC WING-Kp Model Forecast
LMSAL/VSL Heliospheric Model Forecast

NASA Goddard integrated Space Weather Analysis System (a great all round system for various monitoring and forecasting output, also available as an app)

[Bazmundo]

Last night's SWPC forecast includes a noteworthy SSBC (boundary between North/South IMF fields) and a later oncoming CHSS possibly generating aurora for the 6th Jan. Although I think it's a typo, the Sun must be ramping up to the max if it's emitting "steam" LOL!

Quote

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled days 1-2 (4-5 January) as
fluctuating polarity is expected to continue prior to a forecasted
solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC) on day 2. On day 3 (6
January), the onset of a coronal high speed steam (CH HSS) is
expected to produce unsettled and active conditions with a minor
storm possible at onset.

[Bazmundo]

A CME released on the 16th is due to swipe us tomorrow (20th) just after midnight, although the second ENLIL run I've seen for this has downgraded the density. It does look like there's quite a sharp one following on, released yesterday (hence the new model run) and it looks geoeffective, due on the 22/23rd.

http://www.swpc.noaa...nlil/cme-based/

Attached thumbnail(s)

• 

[Dave Hancox]

Space Weather News for Jan. 19, 2011
http://spaceweather.com
EARTH-DIRECTED FLARE: Active sunspot 1401 erupted today, Jan. 19th, for more than an hour around 16:00 UT. The long-duration blast produced an M3-class solar flare and a CME that appears to be heading toward Earth. Forecasters say strong geomagnetic storms are possible when the cloud arrives during the late hours of Jan. 21st. High-latitude (and possibly middle-latitude) sky watchers should be alert for auroras this weekend.

Check http://spaceweather.com for movies and updates.

[Dave Hancox]

BGSspaceWeather BGS Space Weather Next 24hrs - QUIET. Expect STORM conditions late on Sat to Sun due to full halo CME seen on 19th. Good chance of seeing aurora in the north.

[Bazmundo]

Ooh, split camps for the first time in a while on this CME. The SWPC gives it a passing mention with slight upgrades on porbabilities for mid-latitudes, whilst the SIDC in Belgium (quote below) think it will just be a glancing blow but still moderate storm conditions. There is agreement from most, including the 20z ENLIL run yesterday, that there may be some interaction with the geoeffective CME released earlier. All in, it could be an active three days from the 21st.

Quote

A full halo CME was detected by SOHO/LASCO on January 19. It first
appeared in the LASCO C2 field of view at 15:24 UT and moved at the
plane-of-the-sky speed around 1300 km/s. The CME was associated with
coronal dimmings, filament eruption and a post-eruption arcade in and
around Catania sunspot group 21 (NOAA AR 1402), as observed by SDO/AIA
starting around 13:58 UT. An M3.2 flare peaking at 16:05 UT associated
with this eruption was detected by GOES. SOHO/LASCO and STEREO/SECCHI
COR2 beacon data indicate that the bulk of the CME material is moving
northward of the ecliptic plane. We expect a glancing blow from this CME
at the Earth late on January 21 - early on January 22, possibly
resulting in minor to moderate geomagnetic storm conditions.

[Dave Hancox]

Things picking up slightly above 65° North




https://cssdp.ca/ssd...ts/rt_oval.html

[ChaserUK]

mmm magnetosphere seems really quite right now - space weather calm before the storm perhaps!

http://www2.nict.go....ation/realtime/

[Bazmundo]

Looks like the CME hit early this morning, about 06z at ACE. The auroral oval has been nicely charged all day judging by the POES passes, and we're about to rotate into the better part of it. At a guess some fuzziness on the horizon for clear sky areas?

[John Mason]

KP index currently up to 5 - viewers in Scotland not under cloud as I am down here might see something.....

Cheers - John

[Col Cooper]

Aurora visible at least as far south as Northumberland

http://www.flickr.com/photos/beerisforwinners/6744167113/in/photostream

hope the link works.

[tcmorris78]

I headed out last night, Sunday 22nd Jan, and managed to get my first Northern Lights photographs. Moved just a few miles north of Dundee and managed to get a break in the clouds long enough to get a few snaps. Absolutely delighted.

Attached thumbnail(s)

• 
• 

This post has been edited by tcmorris78: 23 January 2012 - 12:24

[Bazmundo]

Excellent shots lads, it was quite a punch from the solar environment. More to come into 2013!

[Dave Hancox]

Those are great pics Colin, cracking Aurora. I was stranded last night after a flash flood caused by a landslide at an opencast skies clear but under a large North facing hill for 6hrs and didn't get to see any. 18 hour night shift. Only got out when they sent in a tractor with wheels higher than my van. That Northumberland Pics are cracking too.

[Dave Hancox]

Made the Scottish news too, http://news.stv.tv/s...orthern-lights/

[Col Cooper]

apparently there was another huge flare earlier today which could impact tomorrow night.

Watch the skies!

[Bazmundo]

So there was! Perhaps the mention of fallen angels has made someone angry? Attached shot from SOHO at 0530z.

This one also looks pretty sharp in terms of density (top graph), in addition it's rather quick - crossing the 1AU distance in just a couple of days and arriving at an estimated 700km/s (bottom graph).


Event Issue Date: 2012-01-23 06:26:50.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-01-24 14:18:05.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 7 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 4.6 R_e

Attached thumbnail(s)

• 
• 

[Astronick]

Hello, I haven't posted in here for a good long while but the topic of Aurorae has lured me back to have a look!

I was out both Saturday and Sunday nights in Aberdeenshire. On Saturday there was only a very, very faint hazy aurora in the north. Last night though was much more spectacular with a wide green band arcing across the sky that pulsed slightly over time. Other people were out later and saw better structure than I did but I'm definitely not complaining at this first good sighting of an aurora since November 2004. I'm hoping that we'll get a few more although once again the weather is turning so I may not be quite as lucky with this next CME...

Anyway, I haven't had much chance to play around with the pictures yet but this is one I have managed to process a little:



Taken near Midmar, Aberdeenshire at 9:40pm, Sunday 22nd January 2012
Canon 450D and 18-55 kit lens at 18mm, 20 seconds at f/3.5, ISO 1600, processed in GIMP

[Tony Sales]

 Astronick, on 23 January 2012 - 15:36, said:

Hello, I haven't posted in here for a good long while but the topic of Aurorae has lured me back to have a look!

I was out both Saturday and Sunday nights in Aberdeenshire. On Saturday there was only a very, very faint hazy aurora in the north. Last night though was much more spectacular with a wide green band arcing across the sky that pulsed slightly over time. Other people were out later and saw better structure than I did but I'm definitely not complaining at this first good sighting of an aurora since November 2004. I'm hoping that we'll get a few more although once again the weather is turning so I may not be quite as lucky with this next CME...

Anyway, I haven't had much chance to play around with the pictures yet but this is one I have managed to process a little:



Taken near Midmar, Aberdeenshire at 9:40pm, Sunday 22nd January 2012
Canon 450D and 18-55 kit lens at 18mm, 20 seconds at f/3.5, ISO 1600, processed in GIMP

Fantastic photo there I might head out later on tonight, not expecting much, supposed to be tomorrow and thursday nights the best?

[Dave Hancox]

Nice captures Astronick glad you came back to post them. More BBC pics of last nights display. http://www.bbc.co.uk...9422#TWEET66359