[Bazmundo]

Plenty of media coverage and alerts about this storm, even the BGS issued an alert, though a lot of the simulated output has been undermined by a lack of density and speed data from ACE (I hope it's okay), in the meantime here's the SOHO plots (top graph for velocity).

Another good side effect of these storms is that they inspire you to go hunting for juicy data. For auroral oval plots I usually go to the POES satellite passes or the Ovation plots based on the DMSP pass data for the last 45mins. Well I've just found Ovation Prime, an auto-updating page of the latest DMSP data (top two plots are N Hem, your location is whatever time it is and latitude, the forecast is a blend of current DMSP and ACE data for the lead time of ~1hr ahead at the location of ACE). Now that's a useful tool for aurora hunting, presuming you're already in a tent in Scotland with a smartphone...

[Kevin Kerr]

Not been here in a while, but this kinda stuff brings me from under my rock, thats a nice set of data and well presented...thanks Glyn. Was hoping for an aircraft view this evening on the way home...sadly not. Clear skies all

[00ctober]

Wasn't expecting any clear skies tonight but there is currently a large patch of very clear sky here overhead, stars shining brightly. No aurora spotted, it's still mostly cloudy across the North.

[Bazmundo]

Potentially quite a large auroral oval at the moment, shame about the cloud cover. Looks as though the large CME associated with the 27th flare has actually clipped the magnetosphere after all. Most of the shock is ahead of us. Could be some possible sightings from the North, as the Kiruna magnetometer has shown some decent readings, though Crooktree hasn't twitched much.

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[Tina]

I'm very disappointed with myself I didn't check out our skies Hope I'll have more chances in the coming months!!..

http://www.whitehave...ferrerPath=news

[Dave Hancox]

Some activity at the moment, wonder if it will last until tonight Moon will make it difficult to see I think.

[Bazmundo]

Geophysical forecasts suggest low activity, but this scenario is of a gentle solar wind with a sustained southward (-ve) vertical magnetic field component, rather like blowing on a fire. ACE plots show low density, with ENLIL suggesting it dropping away further over the next few days - however, even the ambient ENLIL doesn't yet have the resolution to see "quiet" magnetic periods (it's baseline B_z polarity is +1 for some reason).

The slightly coarser but shorter time-frame Wang-Sheeley model (attached) suggests the southward (-ve) component should be with us for the next couple of days, so might be worth watching for a glow though sharp features are less likely without a disturbance to the magnetosphere.

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[Bazmundo]

Solar wind speeds are steadily increasing, and the negative component gets a mention in the 22z forecast from the SWPC:

Quote

Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day 1 (8 February) as the results of elevated solar wind speeds and intermittent periods of negative Bz. Unsettled to active levels are again expected due to the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream on days 2-3 (9-10 February)

I must say, the POES oval is looking very plump, and Ovation Prime (attached) shows quite a lot of activity at the moment. Shame about the cloud... again.

Quote

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 1860
Issue Time: 2012 Feb 07 2033 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2012 Feb 07 2040 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Feb 08 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

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[Bazmundo]

From the ACE plots it seems the solar wind is on the wane, and the Ovation oval is calming down now.

Also found a new indicator, 3-day detection of plasma clouds in space via the MuSTAnG muon telescope. In principal, this telescope sees the interference in Cosmic Ray detection that solar wind plasma clouds create - it sees further out than the position of ACE on 180^o scans. The orientation of the detected interference is really no matter, mainly just the intensity. In this example, ACE saw a gentle negative wind slowly increase before falling away after midnight last night; but the Mustang Project saw a decline in the plasma cloud from 1030z onwards - before it was detected at the ACE point. Will have to monitor this in elevated or CME environments, but it seems to back up it's claim that it could even provide better data for Aurora Tourism (or Aurorism?).

One thing is clear, this addition is going to make Aurora Watch sound more like a scene from Top Gun. Shame they retired SuperDARN and PIXIE.

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[Bazmundo]

Heads up for a CME released on the 10th, currently forecast to impact late tomorrow - possibly some Valentine's Day aurora?

Quote

Event Issue Date: 2012-02-11 07:17:11.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-02-13 21:25:03.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 12 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.4 R_e

[Dave Hancox]

Currently KP4 very low on horizon. Picture from Edinburgh tonight https://twitter.com/...3574658/photo/1

[Bazmundo]

Inbound CME, fast-mover too. Should impact before midnight tomorrow (Sun 26th) and last into Monday. Origin was a huge filament eruption so it could be quite sharp in terms of density, making it the kind that might give a sharp bowshock sufficient to push the oval further south. There were several associated CME's through the 23rd and 24th, though only this one was geoeffective.

Couldn't find a SOHO LASCO C3 gif small enough so had to make a tiny one, shown is a CME over the NE in full punch whereupon the geoeffective CME bursts up from the same area, spans about 12hrs.



Also attached are images from STEREO-Behind (to the left if looking at the sun) of both CMEs from the anim above, first the northern one then as the filament eruption tracked soutward releasing the geoeffective CME.

[Bazmundo]

Update from Belgium SIDC, might not be as active if northward oriented...

Quote

INFO FROM SIDC - RWC BELGIUM 25 Feb 2012, 1250UT

Solar flaring conditions are quiet and expected to remain quiet for the next 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet during the past 24 hours and are expected to remain quiet for the next 24 hours.

The CME that erupted yesterday 24/2 around 4UT is expected to become geoeffective in the course of Monday 27/2 between 6 and 16 UT. The magnetic field is expexted to be oriented northward, we therefore expect only active geomagnetic conditions (K=4). Another CME was observed late on 24/2 around 20 UT. It is also related to a filament eruption, this time in the south-east. This CME is not expected to have big geomagnetic consequences since it is directed mostly southward and since it is very slow (350 km/s). A glancing blow is however possible, which may lead to unsetteled conditions late on 29/2.

Found some decent imagery of the filament (upper left of disc) just before eruption (SDO retrieval was offline last night as the AIA processing offices had a power cut):




Also a movie of the event just prior to eruption, with what looks like a little plasma tornado (but isn't) right on the NE limb:
http://sdowww.lmsal....0224_212752.mov

...and a youtube movie someone generated with the Helioviewer:

[scrapemedic]

Makes you realise how big an even these CMEs are Glyn. After the ejection you can see waves of suface changes spreading out both left and right and given how big the Sun is they must be huge, big enough to cover the earth in minutes.

[Tony Sales]

So do we think the storm conditions will be low for tomorrow evening?

[Bazmundo]

Tony Sales, on 25 February 2012 - 18:43, said:

So do we think the storm conditions will be low for tomorrow evening?

Worth keeping an eye on the 22z updates to the SWPC forecast, as they run the ENLIL-WSA-GONG model several times with more recent data to analyse plane-of-sky speeds, etc. Only the relevant ones are published online. Currently the view is unsettled to active with chances for isolated storms (geomagnetic), but it's still difficult to identify the aurora type until the CME reaches ACE and the rest of the geosatellite enviroment so we can get some real-time analysis. Even then the connection between display type and CME isn't fully understood, as detection and analysis of CMEs is still limited and hence so is forecasting.

Worth being optimistic though, or at least not missing anything.

[Tony Sales]

Bazmundo, on 25 February 2012 - 20:49, said:

Worth keeping an eye on the 22z updates to the SWPC forecast, as they run the ENLIL-WSA-GONG model several times with more recent data to analyse plane-of-sky speeds, etc. Only the relevant ones are published online. Currently the view is unsettled to active with chances for isolated storms (geomagnetic), but it's still difficult to identify the aurora type until the CME reaches ACE and the rest of the geosatellite enviroment so we can get some real-time analysis. Even then the connection between display type and CME isn't fully understood, as detection and analysis of CMEs is still limited and hence so is forecasting.

Worth being optimistic though, or at least not missing anything.

Cheers, I'll be watching

[Dave Hancox]

I see its forecast possible G2 /S2 ( KP6) Solar storm from this on the 26th . http://www.theweathe...-solar-sun.html


Five Solar Eruptions in 2 Days – CME On the Way http://www.nasa.gov/...022512-cme.html

[Bazmundo]

Dave Hancox, on 26 February 2012 - 05:25, said:

I see its forecast possible G2 /S2 ( KP6) Solar storm from this on the 26th . http://www.theweathe...-solar-sun.html

He's not a reliable source IMO Dave, not worth checking with.

[Dave Hancox]

Thanks for the heads up Glyn worth mentioning, shame though. It has been A very quiet event as it turns out.