Aurora Watch 2012 Forecasts, analysis and sightings for the year.
Posted 12 March 2012 - 20:47
Was on a shoot today that ended in Pwllheli when it got dark, so dawdled home stopping on occasion. Nada. Once reaching the section of road that goes past Cadair Idris I was in thick drizzly fog, so that knocked further attempts at obs on the head.
Cheers - John
Posted 12 March 2012 - 22:21
Can't complain too much - at least we saw something yesterday.
Not sure if there is a satellite image that picks up this cloud? Doesn't seem to show much on IR - probably too low. Cloud tops may even be below the highest summits but I'm not going to run up another hill to find out! Should have parked a tent up there tonight...
Posted 13 March 2012 - 13:06
Posted 13 March 2012 - 13:41
Posted 13 March 2012 - 23:21
So far (22z 13th), the SWPC have declined to say whether or not it is geoeffective, though their ENLIL run seems to suggest it could be (attached). The NASA ENLIL (lord knows why these are different, I have tried to find out why...) also suggests it could be geoeffective but gives an impact time almost a day earlier (attached), as does their statement (below). Credit to RWS Belgium for sticking their neck out, despite being quite wide of the mark with the last CME, as they have very diplomatically provided the following:
NOAA AR 1429 produced a M7.9 flare today, peaking at 17:41 UT. It is associated with a proton event in progress (for protons with energy above 10 and 50 MeV) and a fast CME (~1300 km/s from preliminary estimates based on LASCO observations). At this moment, it is unclear what is the longitudinal extent of this event. The position of the source region on the disk makes this CME unlikely to trigger significant geomagnetic disturbances, and if any, not before the second half of March 15th.
NASA CCMC CME Arrival Time Prediction:
Event Issue Date: 2012-03-13 20:18:02.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-03-15 06:20:06.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 11 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 5.1 Re
Posted 15 March 2012 - 18:05
Auroral conditions have been good on the 10, 6, 4 and 2 meter Amateur Radio bands.
Hoping for clear skies tonight!
From recent experience, that Helios site is waaaay too optimistic.
A more realistic view is that shown on the Auroral Visibilty Monitor at
Ususally when it changes colour and expands, you will have a realistic chance of seeing something (weather permitting)
Just my personal experience. Your mileage may vary!