[Sam Jowett]

Aurora should be visible overhead across Scotland now according to: http://helios.swpc.n...ion/Europe.html and there are certainly some good views from Lapland this evening: http://www.aurorasky.../live-camera/9/

[Flatlander]

Guess I'll have a look...
..nope. 100% cloud cover.

Might try again later.

This post has been edited by Tim Prosser: 12 March 2012 - 20:44

[John Mason]

Good to see some images. I remember auroras like that in the early 1990s in the Highlands, with the searchlight-like columns.

Was on a shoot today that ended in Pwllheli when it got dark, so dawdled home stopping on occasion. Nada. Once reaching the section of road that goes past Cadair Idris I was in thick drizzly fog, so that knocked further attempts at obs on the head.

Cheers - John

[John Mason]

Aurora should currently be visible from favourable (N-facing view, no cloud) locations from N England/ NI northwards - if you live in these areas go and have a look!

Cheers - John

[Tony Sales]

to bad we got cloud here

[Tony Sales]

cant believe there are no breaks in the cloud, its come so far south!!
http://helios.swpc.n...ion/Europe.html

[Flatlander]

Same up here - no breaks at all. Would have been nice to see them overhead!

Can't complain too much - at least we saw something yesterday.

Not sure if there is a satellite image that picks up this cloud? Doesn't seem to show much on IR - probably too low. Cloud tops may even be below the highest summits but I'm not going to run up another hill to find out! Should have parked a tent up there tonight...

[Tony Sales]

Seems when its good, its cloudy, and when nothing is happening, its crystal clear...

[Dave Hancox]

http://www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk/
BGS Space Weather -Next 24 hrs - Minor Storm from CME on the 10th March expected to cause minor storms later today.
Cloudy conditions still not looking good.

[John Mason]

Tony Sales, on 12 March 2012 - 22:24, said:

Seems when its good, its cloudy, and when nothing is happening, its crystal clear...

That's a frequent problem during the Noctilucent Cloud season, too!

Cheers - John

[Dave Hancox]

John Mason, on 13 March 2012 - 10:49, said:

That's a frequent problem during the Noctilucent Cloud season, too!

Cheers - John

And meteor showers, makes these thing more special when you do get to capture them, or everyone would have photographs of them and it wouldn't be a challenge.

[Tony Sales]

Dave Hancox, on 13 March 2012 - 13:06, said:

And meteor showers, makes these thing more special when you do get to capture them, or everyone would have photographs of them and it wouldn't be a challenge.

You make a good point there Dave haha

[Sam Jowett]

M8 flare in the last hour... Not sure of the source yet, but If it's the same sunspot group as recent flares, not sure it will be especially earth directed...

[Bazmundo]

This one hasn't split the various camps as much Sam, though they are understandably cautious to offer a predicted impact time given the off-centre nature of the eruption as you say.

So far (22z 13th), the SWPC have declined to say whether or not it is geoeffective, though their ENLIL run seems to suggest it could be (attached). The NASA ENLIL (lord knows why these are different, I have tried to find out why...) also suggests it could be geoeffective but gives an impact time almost a day earlier (attached), as does their statement (below). Credit to RWS Belgium for sticking their neck out, despite being quite wide of the mark with the last CME, as they have very diplomatically provided the following:

Quote

PRESTO FROM SIDC - RWC BELGIUM Tue Mar 13 2012, 1928 UT

NOAA AR 1429 produced a M7.9 flare today, peaking at 17:41 UT. It is associated with a proton event in progress (for protons with energy above 10 and 50 MeV) and a fast CME (~1300 km/s from preliminary estimates based on LASCO observations). At this moment, it is unclear what is the longitudinal extent of this event. The position of the source region on the disk makes this CME unlikely to trigger significant geomagnetic disturbances, and if any, not before the second half of March 15th.
....

NASA CCMC CME Arrival Time Prediction:

Event Issue Date: 2012-03-13 20:18:02.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-03-15 06:20:06.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 11 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 5.1 Re

Attached thumbnail(s)

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[Tony Sales]

Looking very promising tonight

http://spacew.com/ Strong at Mid-latitudes

http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation/
Already very far south, and tracking on over the North sea currently

[Stuart Robinson]

Shame that i am socked in with cloud here in the Midlands

[Tony Sales]

Oval from the Helios site is berserk! Over northern England already!

[Col Cooper]

Aurorawatch magnetometer is going nuts as well.....fingers crossed for clear skies

[Iain Mac]

There has been a reasonably strong aurora here in the past couple of hours, peaking around 1715.
Auroral conditions have been good on the 10, 6, 4 and 2 meter Amateur Radio bands.

Hoping for clear skies tonight!

From recent experience, that Helios site is waaaay too optimistic.
A more realistic view is that shown on the Auroral Visibilty Monitor at

http://www.spacew.com/www/aurvis.gif

Ususally when it changes colour and expands, you will have a realistic chance of seeing something (weather permitting)
Just my personal experience. Your mileage may vary!

Iain.

[Col Cooper]

i have to say that judging by recent experience i think you might be right about the helios site....bit optomistic it seems.