[Bazmundo]

Not as much particle density to the solar wind stream as last night though speed (hence flux) is up, still a strong negative bias. Could be a good chance as the oval is quite broad atm.

[Bazmundo]

Cloud thickening here, haven't seen anything and Crooktree is barely twitching despite the fact that Kiruna has been banging around for a while now. Still a good chance but possibly only far northern latitudes (considering Kiruna's position).

All eyes on the 26th (Thur) as a halo-CME observed on the 23rd is due to impact early in the day, leaving open the possibility of aurora for the UK late evening from prolonged geomagnetic substorm activity as it is quite fast and dense.

SOHO Latest C3 3-day anim (large): http://sohowww.nasco.../current_c3.gif
WSA-ENLIL Solar Environment Model Latest: http://www.swpc.noaa...nlil/cme-based/

[Dave Hancox]

Currently Minor activity and climbing on http://aurorawatch.lancs.ac.uk/ worth keeping an eye on. solar wind at 650 km-1

[Tony Sales]

damned cloud cover, lets hope this front clears through by dark

[Dave Hancox]

Wind and Cloud will a problem for most tonight I think.

Update on CME from 4/23/2012 18:09:00 UT. Based on revised heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact the Earth earlier than predicted previously. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach the Earth at the revised arrival time of 04/26/2012 at 12:13 UT (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the Kp index is 3-5 (minor). (credit: NASA Goddard Space Weather Center)

[Bazmundo]

Slight chance of a CME hit today (7th), stemming from here on 5th May, with a following solar sector boundary and from then on a high speed stream. Could be some good chances for aurora this week.

[Bazmundo]

There was a weak CME impact yesterday, barely noticeable, but now that the solar magnetic field sector has changed there's a distinct negative component to the solar wind - which is expected to increase in speed also - making for increased chances of aurora globally in the coming days.

Also another CME released yesterday in association with a M-class flare and type IV radio burst (type IV are known to confirm strong flares and CMEs). It looks set to impact us full-on sometime on the 10th, and is quite a fast-mover so likely some wobbling of the geomagnetic field. Latest Goddard ENLIL run.

SOHO imagery feed appears to be interrupted, so this event hasn't been confirmed with a LASCO C3 'halo-CME' analysis AFAIK.

[Dave Hancox]

Some activity at the moment not great, but you never know with Aurora worth keeping a check.

http://aurorawatch.lancs.ac.uk/

http://www.swpc.noaa.../SWN/index.html

https://cssdp.ca/ssd...ts/rt_oval.html

[Tony Sales]

Dave Hancox, on 09 May 2012 - 19:05, said:

Some activity at the moment not great, but you never know with Aurora worth keeping a check.

http://aurorawatch.lancs.ac.uk/

http://www.swpc.noaa.../SWN/index.html

https://cssdp.ca/ssd...ts/rt_oval.html

Typically, 8/8 cloud cover here

[Bazmundo]

M5 flare yesterday, with a huge CME erupting off the eastern side of the sun, see SOHO C3 animation which has been used to deduce that a portion of it is geo-effective: http://sohowww.nasco...ent_c3small.gif

Expected to reach us during the second half of today, though possibly only a glancing blow according to the ENLIL. SWPC have middle latitude probabilities at 35% for active, 25% for minor storm and 10% for major storm conditions. Should calm down tomorrow.

[Dave Hancox]

Minor to Active Storms are forecast overnight worth keeping an eye on, Moon may cause problems but you may also see some NLC's.

http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3

[Dave Hancox]

A pro-longed M class flare occured today, it is forecast to hit Earth on the evening of the 16/06/2012 KP forecast 3-5 a minor event which will possibly be only visible from Northern Scotland. However saying that it as with all these forecasts difficult to say what will actually happen so worth keeping an eye open. The dark sky window is also at its minimum at this time of year.

[Tony Sales]

Amber warning from the Aurora Lancs station in Cooktree this evening... Oval doesnt seem to be over us though

[Bazmundo]

Tony Sales, on 16 June 2012 - 21:45, said:

Amber warning from the Aurora Lancs station in Cooktree this evening... Oval doesnt seem to be over us though

The reason was a double-impact of CMEs from 0900z onwards today. Albeit in themselves quite weak, there was sufficient increase in solar wind speed and timing of the impacts to compress the magnetosphere significantly - to within geosynchronous satellite orbit just after 21z for a couple of hours. The auroral activity is thus derived from severe wobbling of the magnetic field and the thrust of charged particles into it, rather than the usual favourable magnetic conditions for charge seeping in at the polar cusps. Indeed, the last of the two CMEs had a very northward magnetic component (Bz), so the statistical oval models wouldn't have picked up on this using ACE data. Kp has been estimated at 6 globally, so quite a significant geomagnetic substorm going on!

Attached: POES satellite-derived oval, magntopause standoff distance graph (the compression of the edge of the magnetic field seen tonight), and the GOES satellite magnetometers going mental when they were exposed to the solar wind due to the compression.

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[Bazmundo]

Very strong reaction from the auroral oval tonight, though nothing specific in the last two days forecasts after the 6th July CME cuffed us. It looks to be very similar to solar wind conditions within that disturbance, after a pause for most of today, but either way the increase in density and the negative Bz component likely put a surge of charge into the magnetosphere.

Attached POES oval, ACE solar wind data for 24hrs, and Kiruna magnetometer reacting.

Little bit late for any views with dawn approaching, and unlikely to be any effects continuing to late tomorrow. Thought I'd post it up as it's the best we've had from what's been a fairly quiet affair recently...

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[ChaserUK]

juat been an X1.4 flare directed straight at our little blue marble - could be interesting times ahead!

X-FLARE! Big sunspot AR1520 unleashed an X1.4-class solar flare on July 12th at 1653 UT. Because the sunspot was directly facing Earth at the time of the blast, this is a geoeffective event. Stay tuned for updates about possible CMEs and radio blackouts.

[Dave Hancox]

BGS Storm Alert for 14th http://www.geomag.bg...2012-07-13.html

[Bazmundo]

SWPC model-based estimate is for late on the 14th, SIDC Belgium is for noon on the 14th. Either way, it's expected to be fast and big, just the type required to give the magnetosphere a good kick and push the aurora southward.

It was also quite a long-duration eruption, with a sustained 'ribbon' flare, at around 2hrs. It's possible that a significant cloud of coronal mass, and a longer than normal period of geomagnetic sub-storm activity is approaching.

Imagery of the eruption and associated flare available here

Solar Dynamics Observatory on youtube:

[Dave Hancox]

Current Amber Alert for Uk http://aurorawatch.lancs.ac.uk/ clearish skies here.

[Tony Sales]

Cloudy down here typically