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Tomorrow evening looks very promising.... shame about the forecast! Some lovely photos from up north though!
Cheers - John
Aurora Watch 2012 Forecasts, analysis and sightings for the year.
#22
Posted 24 January 2012 - 02:39
Thought I'd post the SWPC 3-day for posterity, could be quite a thump today (24th). The phrase "reverse shock" used for the 23rd refers to the environment returning back to normal speeds/pressures after the CME passes, shown quite well on the ACE plots around 06z.
Quote
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 023 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jan 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z: Solar activity reached high levels. Region 1402
(N28W36) produced a long-duration M8/2b flare at 23/0359Z.
Associated with this event were multi-frequency radio emissions
spanning 25 MHz through 15.4 GHz including a 5100 sfu Tenflare.
SOHO/LASCO observed an asymmetric, full-halo CME, first observed in
C2 imagery at 27/0412Z as a bright halo over the northern
hemisphere. Model output suggests potential Earth impact midday on
24 January. Region 1402 showed some umbral separation in the large
leader spot. Region 1401 (N16W39) produced a C1/Sf at 23/2011Z.
The remainder of the disk was quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
during the period (24 - 26 January) with M-class activity likely
from Regions 1401 and 1402.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storms levels. The
period began with active to minor storm conditions as the field was
under the influence of the 19 January CME. By 23/0600Z, the field
became mostly quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speeds began the
period at about 450 km/s while the Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was at about -10 nT. By about
0630Z, wind speeds dropped sharply to near 300 km/s, density dropped
to near 0 p/cc and IMF Bz turned northward. These signatures were
consistent with a possible reverse shock at the back end of the CME.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at greater than or equal to 10
pfu and the greater than 100 MeV proton flux at greater than or
equal to 1 pfu at geosynchronous orbit were above threshold during
the period. The 10 MeV event began at 23/0530Z and reached at
maximum of 3100 pfu at 23/1940Z. The 100 MeV event began at
23/0445Z and reached a maximum of 2.3 pfu at 23/0750Z. Both events
were still in progress at the time of this report.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to isolated severe storm levels on day
one (24 January). Mostly quiet levels are expected through midday
on 24 January when the anticipated arrival of the 23 January CME is
expected to affect the field. Active to major storm levels, with
isolated severe storm periods, are expected for the remainder of day
one. By day two (25 January), field activity is expected to
decrease to unsettled to active levels, with isolated minor storm
periods, as effects from the CME wane. Day three (26 January)
should see a return to mostly quiet conditions.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 99/99/50
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jan 144
Predicted 24 Jan-26 Jan 145/145/145
90 Day Mean 23 Jan 143
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jan 022/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jan 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jan-26 Jan 022/042-018/020-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/30/05
Minor storm 35/15/01
Major-severe storm 20/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/40/10Minor storm 50/25/05Major-severe storm 30/10/01
SDF Number 023 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jan 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z: Solar activity reached high levels. Region 1402
(N28W36) produced a long-duration M8/2b flare at 23/0359Z.
Associated with this event were multi-frequency radio emissions
spanning 25 MHz through 15.4 GHz including a 5100 sfu Tenflare.
SOHO/LASCO observed an asymmetric, full-halo CME, first observed in
C2 imagery at 27/0412Z as a bright halo over the northern
hemisphere. Model output suggests potential Earth impact midday on
24 January. Region 1402 showed some umbral separation in the large
leader spot. Region 1401 (N16W39) produced a C1/Sf at 23/2011Z.
The remainder of the disk was quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
during the period (24 - 26 January) with M-class activity likely
from Regions 1401 and 1402.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storms levels. The
period began with active to minor storm conditions as the field was
under the influence of the 19 January CME. By 23/0600Z, the field
became mostly quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speeds began the
period at about 450 km/s while the Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was at about -10 nT. By about
0630Z, wind speeds dropped sharply to near 300 km/s, density dropped
to near 0 p/cc and IMF Bz turned northward. These signatures were
consistent with a possible reverse shock at the back end of the CME.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at greater than or equal to 10
pfu and the greater than 100 MeV proton flux at greater than or
equal to 1 pfu at geosynchronous orbit were above threshold during
the period. The 10 MeV event began at 23/0530Z and reached at
maximum of 3100 pfu at 23/1940Z. The 100 MeV event began at
23/0445Z and reached a maximum of 2.3 pfu at 23/0750Z. Both events
were still in progress at the time of this report.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to isolated severe storm levels on day
one (24 January). Mostly quiet levels are expected through midday
on 24 January when the anticipated arrival of the 23 January CME is
expected to affect the field. Active to major storm levels, with
isolated severe storm periods, are expected for the remainder of day
one. By day two (25 January), field activity is expected to
decrease to unsettled to active levels, with isolated minor storm
periods, as effects from the CME wane. Day three (26 January)
should see a return to mostly quiet conditions.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 99/99/50
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jan 144
Predicted 24 Jan-26 Jan 145/145/145
90 Day Mean 23 Jan 143
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jan 022/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jan 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jan-26 Jan 022/042-018/020-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/30/05
Minor storm 35/15/01
Major-severe storm 20/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/40/10Minor storm 50/25/05Major-severe storm 30/10/01
#23
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- LocationGraham, NC USA
Posted 24 January 2012 - 21:25
Hey Bazmundo,
The local news said the impact was to be near noon, 1700UT. They expected roughly a 5-10hr show, too early/high lat. for us to see though.
(No noticeable telecom. disruption yet (1500EST), will try DXing this evening in the 10 meter and 14 meter bands. Who knows maybe I'll pick up Dublin via "skip" tonight on the SW/wireless...)
Hopefully, the High pressure should be reaching Ireland this afternoon. Hope you all get some good shots, us "latitudnally" challenged will not see it...
Quick question though, I know most shots may be North of the home location listed; but, it would be nice if a rough direction in relation to either your home location or photo location would be a nice addition. (It's interesting to get the star maps out to try to ID the stars/planets in the photos as well.)
Btw, hats off to the O2 shots so far, cannot wait to see what develops tonight...
The local news said the impact was to be near noon, 1700UT. They expected roughly a 5-10hr show, too early/high lat. for us to see though.
(No noticeable telecom. disruption yet (1500EST), will try DXing this evening in the 10 meter and 14 meter bands. Who knows maybe I'll pick up Dublin via "skip" tonight on the SW/wireless...)
Hopefully, the High pressure should be reaching Ireland this afternoon. Hope you all get some good shots, us "latitudnally" challenged will not see it...
Quick question though, I know most shots may be North of the home location listed; but, it would be nice if a rough direction in relation to either your home location or photo location would be a nice addition. (It's interesting to get the star maps out to try to ID the stars/planets in the photos as well.)
Btw, hats off to the O2 shots so far, cannot wait to see what develops tonight...
#24
Posted 24 January 2012 - 22:24
KP index up to 5 now, but raining and overcast here. Better luck elsewhere, I hope!
If it isn't raining, take a look to the north! If it isn't cloudy you may see something!
Good luck. Cheers - John
If it isn't raining, take a look to the north! If it isn't cloudy you may see something!
Good luck. Cheers - John
#25
Posted 24 January 2012 - 23:25
ldavidcooke, on 24 January 2012 - 21:25, said:
Hey Bazmundo,
The local news said the impact was to be near noon, 1700UT. They expected roughly a 5-10hr show, too early/high lat. for us to see though.
(No noticeable telecom. disruption yet (1500EST), will try DXing this evening in the 10 meter and 14 meter bands. Who knows maybe I'll pick up Dublin via "skip" tonight on the SW/wireless...)
The local news said the impact was to be near noon, 1700UT. They expected roughly a 5-10hr show, too early/high lat. for us to see though.
(No noticeable telecom. disruption yet (1500EST), will try DXing this evening in the 10 meter and 14 meter bands. Who knows maybe I'll pick up Dublin via "skip" tonight on the SW/wireless...)
Hey Dave, the impact was just after 1430z with the main plasma density nearer 1500z. The auroral oval has been fluctuating strongly all day (see attached) and should be for some time (a day or so), not only due to the charging of particles in the atmosphere but also from magnetic field wobbles and magneto-tail refluxes. There's also a day-3 Coronal High Speed Stream joining the party. All in, good chances even further south than normal. The proton storm causing the radio interference is also expected to last a couple of days, I seem to remember reading that 17MHz is good for reaching Europe at the moment, but possibly lower. There is also a 60% chance of further M-Class flares, and I'd expect the odd X-Class in the month to come as it seems Sol is getting frisky.
ACE speed plots haven't captured the full ferocity of this CME impact, possibly as a result of the leading edge spreading ahead of the cloud (density seems quite low), but SOHO picked up the initial interplanetary shock travelling at 750km/s calming to a measly 650km/s after!
Attached thumbnail(s)
#26
Posted 25 January 2012 - 00:01
Plenty of media coverage and alerts about this storm, even the BGS issued an alert, though a lot of the simulated output has been undermined by a lack of density and speed data from ACE (I hope it's okay), in the meantime here's the SOHO plots (top graph for velocity).
Another good side effect of these storms is that they inspire you to go hunting for juicy data. For auroral oval plots I usually go to the POES satellite passes or the Ovation plots based on the DMSP pass data for the last 45mins. Well I've just found Ovation Prime, an auto-updating page of the latest DMSP data (top two plots are N Hem, your location is whatever time it is and latitude, the forecast is a blend of current DMSP and ACE data for the lead time of ~1hr ahead at the location of ACE). Now that's a useful tool for aurora hunting, presuming you're already in a tent in Scotland with a smartphone...
Another good side effect of these storms is that they inspire you to go hunting for juicy data. For auroral oval plots I usually go to the POES satellite passes or the Ovation plots based on the DMSP pass data for the last 45mins. Well I've just found Ovation Prime, an auto-updating page of the latest DMSP data (top two plots are N Hem, your location is whatever time it is and latitude, the forecast is a blend of current DMSP and ACE data for the lead time of ~1hr ahead at the location of ACE). Now that's a useful tool for aurora hunting, presuming you're already in a tent in Scotland with a smartphone...
#27
Posted 25 January 2012 - 00:12
Not been here in a while, but this kinda stuff brings me from under my rock, thats a nice set of data and well presented...thanks Glyn. Was hoping for an aircraft view this evening on the way home...sadly not. Clear skies all
#28
- Group: Members
- Posts: 3858
- Joined: 05-September 03
- LocationWrightington, W Lancs, 97masl
Posted 25 January 2012 - 00:22
Wasn't expecting any clear skies tonight but there is currently a large patch of very clear sky here overhead, stars shining brightly. No aurora spotted, it's still mostly cloudy across the North.
#29
Posted 31 January 2012 - 00:54
Potentially quite a large auroral oval at the moment, shame about the cloud cover. Looks as though the large CME associated with the 27th flare has actually clipped the magnetosphere after all. Most of the shock is ahead of us. Could be some possible sightings from the North, as the Kiruna magnetometer has shown some decent readings, though Crooktree hasn't twitched much.
Attached thumbnail(s)
#30
Posted 01 February 2012 - 18:10
I'm very disappointed with myself I didn't check out our skies 
Hope I'll have more chances in the coming months!!..
http://www.whitehave...ferrerPath=news
Hope I'll have more chances in the coming months!!..http://www.whitehave...ferrerPath=news
#31
Posted 07 February 2012 - 13:04
Some activity at the moment, wonder if it will last until tonight Moon will make it difficult to see I think.
#32
Posted 07 February 2012 - 14:16
Geophysical forecasts suggest low activity, but this scenario is of a gentle solar wind with a sustained southward (-ve) vertical magnetic field component, rather like blowing on a fire. ACE plots show low density, with ENLIL suggesting it dropping away further over the next few days - however, even the ambient ENLIL doesn't yet have the resolution to see "quiet" magnetic periods (it's baseline Bz polarity is +1 for some reason).
The slightly coarser but shorter time-frame Wang-Sheeley model (attached) suggests the southward (-ve) component should be with us for the next couple of days, so might be worth watching for a glow though sharp features are less likely without a disturbance to the magnetosphere.
The slightly coarser but shorter time-frame Wang-Sheeley model (attached) suggests the southward (-ve) component should be with us for the next couple of days, so might be worth watching for a glow though sharp features are less likely without a disturbance to the magnetosphere.
Attached thumbnail(s)
#33
Posted 08 February 2012 - 02:47
Solar wind speeds are steadily increasing, and the negative component gets a mention in the 22z forecast from the SWPC:
I must say, the POES oval is looking very plump, and Ovation Prime (attached) shows quite a lot of activity at the moment. Shame about the cloud... again.
Quote
Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day 1 (8 February) as the results of elevated solar wind speeds and intermittent periods of negative Bz. Unsettled to active levels are again expected due to the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream on days 2-3 (9-10 February)
I must say, the POES oval is looking very plump, and Ovation Prime (attached) shows quite a lot of activity at the moment. Shame about the cloud... again.
Quote
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 1860
Issue Time: 2012 Feb 07 2033 UTC
WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2012 Feb 07 2040 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Feb 08 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.
Serial Number: 1860
Issue Time: 2012 Feb 07 2033 UTC
WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2012 Feb 07 2040 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Feb 08 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.
Attached thumbnail(s)
#34
Posted 08 February 2012 - 15:11
From the ACE plots it seems the solar wind is on the wane, and the Ovation oval is calming down now.
Also found a new indicator, 3-day detection of plasma clouds in space via the MuSTAnG muon telescope. In principal, this telescope sees the interference in Cosmic Ray detection that solar wind plasma clouds create - it sees further out than the position of ACE on 180o scans. The orientation of the detected interference is really no matter, mainly just the intensity. In this example, ACE saw a gentle negative wind slowly increase before falling away after midnight last night; but the Mustang Project saw a decline in the plasma cloud from 1030z onwards - before it was detected at the ACE point. Will have to monitor this in elevated or CME environments, but it seems to back up it's claim that it could even provide better data for Aurora Tourism (or Aurorism?).
One thing is clear, this addition is going to make Aurora Watch sound more like a scene from Top Gun. Shame they retired SuperDARN and PIXIE.
Also found a new indicator, 3-day detection of plasma clouds in space via the MuSTAnG muon telescope. In principal, this telescope sees the interference in Cosmic Ray detection that solar wind plasma clouds create - it sees further out than the position of ACE on 180o scans. The orientation of the detected interference is really no matter, mainly just the intensity. In this example, ACE saw a gentle negative wind slowly increase before falling away after midnight last night; but the Mustang Project saw a decline in the plasma cloud from 1030z onwards - before it was detected at the ACE point. Will have to monitor this in elevated or CME environments, but it seems to back up it's claim that it could even provide better data for Aurora Tourism (or Aurorism?).
One thing is clear, this addition is going to make Aurora Watch sound more like a scene from Top Gun. Shame they retired SuperDARN and PIXIE.
Attached thumbnail(s)
#35
Posted 12 February 2012 - 13:31
Heads up for a CME released on the 10th, currently forecast to impact late tomorrow - possibly some Valentine's Day aurora?
Quote
Event Issue Date: 2012-02-11 07:17:11.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-02-13 21:25:03.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 12 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.4 Re
CME Arrival Time: 2012-02-13 21:25:03.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 12 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.4 Re
#36
Posted 16 February 2012 - 00:19
Currently KP4 very low on horizon. Picture from Edinburgh tonight https://twitter.com/...3574658/photo/1
#37
Posted 25 February 2012 - 02:03
Inbound CME, fast-mover too. Should impact before midnight tomorrow (Sun 26th) and last into Monday. Origin was a huge filament eruption so it could be quite sharp in terms of density, making it the kind that might give a sharp bowshock sufficient to push the oval further south. There were several associated CME's through the 23rd and 24th, though only this one was geoeffective.
Couldn't find a SOHO LASCO C3 gif small enough so had to make a tiny one, shown is a CME over the NE in full punch whereupon the geoeffective CME bursts up from the same area, spans about 12hrs.
Also attached are images from STEREO-Behind (to the left if looking at the sun) of both CMEs from the anim above, first the northern one then as the filament eruption tracked soutward releasing the geoeffective CME.
Couldn't find a SOHO LASCO C3 gif small enough so had to make a tiny one, shown is a CME over the NE in full punch whereupon the geoeffective CME bursts up from the same area, spans about 12hrs.
Also attached are images from STEREO-Behind (to the left if looking at the sun) of both CMEs from the anim above, first the northern one then as the filament eruption tracked soutward releasing the geoeffective CME.
#38
Posted 25 February 2012 - 17:29
Update from Belgium SIDC, might not be as active if northward oriented...
Found some decent imagery of the filament (upper left of disc) just before eruption (SDO retrieval was offline last night as the AIA processing offices had a power cut):
Also a movie of the event just prior to eruption, with what looks like a little plasma tornado (but isn't) right on the NE limb:
http://sdowww.lmsal....0224_212752.mov
...and a youtube movie someone generated with the Helioviewer:
Quote
INFO FROM SIDC - RWC BELGIUM 25 Feb 2012, 1250UT
Solar flaring conditions are quiet and expected to remain quiet for the next 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet during the past 24 hours and are expected to remain quiet for the next 24 hours.
The CME that erupted yesterday 24/2 around 4UT is expected to become geoeffective in the course of Monday 27/2 between 6 and 16 UT. The magnetic field is expexted to be oriented northward, we therefore expect only active geomagnetic conditions (K=4). Another CME was observed late on 24/2 around 20 UT. It is also related to a filament eruption, this time in the south-east. This CME is not expected to have big geomagnetic consequences since it is directed mostly southward and since it is very slow (350 km/s). A glancing blow is however possible, which may lead to unsetteled conditions late on 29/2.
Solar flaring conditions are quiet and expected to remain quiet for the next 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet during the past 24 hours and are expected to remain quiet for the next 24 hours.
The CME that erupted yesterday 24/2 around 4UT is expected to become geoeffective in the course of Monday 27/2 between 6 and 16 UT. The magnetic field is expexted to be oriented northward, we therefore expect only active geomagnetic conditions (K=4). Another CME was observed late on 24/2 around 20 UT. It is also related to a filament eruption, this time in the south-east. This CME is not expected to have big geomagnetic consequences since it is directed mostly southward and since it is very slow (350 km/s). A glancing blow is however possible, which may lead to unsetteled conditions late on 29/2.
Found some decent imagery of the filament (upper left of disc) just before eruption (SDO retrieval was offline last night as the AIA processing offices had a power cut):
Also a movie of the event just prior to eruption, with what looks like a little plasma tornado (but isn't) right on the NE limb:
http://sdowww.lmsal....0224_212752.mov
...and a youtube movie someone generated with the Helioviewer:
#39
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Posted 25 February 2012 - 18:40
Makes you realise how big an even these CMEs are Glyn. After the ejection you can see waves of suface changes spreading out both left and right and given how big the Sun is they must be huge, big enough to cover the earth in minutes.
#40
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Posted 25 February 2012 - 18:43
So do we think the storm conditions will be low for tomorrow evening?
