Aurora Watch 2012 Forecasts, analysis and sightings for the year.
Posted 11 March 2012 - 23:41
Posted 12 March 2012 - 00:05
Liz, the geomagnetic storm reports by the SWPC are a very US biased 'planetary' average, but going by the activity from Kiruna our part of the N Hem is quite active this evening. One of the SAM European magnetometer plots (attached, by a famous person?) gives an equivalent K=5 which would be a G1 geomagnetic storm. Incidentally, Crooktree barely flinched
Still not clear whether the second CME has arrived, in all likelihood it will be an average of the various predictions - tomorrow? This auroral activity may be after-effects of today's impact.
Edit - not sure how accurate the Ovation plots are (as they're not a direct observation, but a model extrapolation), but found the attached one interesting because it would've been our position before midnight.
Posted 12 March 2012 - 00:36
The moon is now rising which does not help matters, hopefully better luck tomorrow night.
Posted 12 March 2012 - 09:39
PRESTOFROM SIDC - RWC BELGIUM Sun Mar 11 2012, 1259 UT
Cataniasunspot group 65 (NOAA AR 1429) maintains beta-gamma-deltaconfiguration of its photospheric magnetic field, and two more groups(still unnumbered) appeared from behind the east limb. We expectcontinuous flaring activity on the C-level, and another M-class flareis probable, especially in Catania sunspot group 65 (NOAA AR 1429).An X-class flare is possible, but unlikely.
Cataniasunspot group 65 (NOAA AR 1429) produced an M8.4 flare peaking at17:44 UT yesterday. The flare was accompanied by coronal dimmings, anEIT wave and a post-eruption arcade observed by SDO/AIA, and a fullhalo CME first detected in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 18:00UT. STEREO/SECCHI COR2 data indicate that the bulk of the CMEmaterial is directed northward of the ecliptic plane. A preliminaryestimate of the CME plane-of-the-sky speeds in the LASCO and COR2 Adata gives values around 900 and 800 km/s respectively. We expect thecorresponding ICME to arrive at the Earth early on March 13,resulting in a moderate to strong (K = 6-7) geomagnetic storm.
TheEarth is currently inside a slow (around 440 km/s) solar wind flowwith weak to average (2-4 nT) interplanetary magnetic fieldmagnitude. We expect quiet geomagnetic conditions in the next severalhours. Later this evening (or tomorrow morning) we expect a strong (K= 7 or higher) geomagnetic storm due to the arrival of the magneticcloud corresponding to the full halo CME on March 9.
Theproton event is still going on, and we expect it to last for at leastanother 12 hours.
Also a great tool thats been launched is the Uk Aurora Map (Live Reports of Visible Aurora) by Matt Gray. Worth marking any sightings to give others a chance of seeing them see link http://www.mattg.co.uk/aurora/
Posted 12 March 2012 - 11:18
The prize for nearest estimate of arrival time goes to... [drum roll].... no-one. Yep, none of the agencies stated 'early on the 12th' though Goddard were perhaps closest with their ENLIL bringing it in at 18z today, though the SWPC could be equally as close with 'late on the 11th'?
Attached ACE and SOHO solar wind data, and geomag pulse from various magnetometers around the world via BGS.
Posted 12 March 2012 - 19:59