[Andy Mayhew]

Mountain Forecast – Issued Thursday 19th January 2012

Unsettled with strong winds and wintry showers

General Situation:

After the fine weather last weekend, it's all back to wet and windy I'm afraid, with a deep area of low pressure tracking eastwards into Norway to the north of Britain, high presure away to the south and a strong west or northwesterly airflow across the British Isles this weekend. Showers likely to be of sleet or snow to 1,000ft and sometimes lower in the Highlands, and above 2,000ft elsewhere. Gales or severe gales over summits and again to lower level at times in the Highlands, especially the northwest. Temperature close to normal.

The Weekend in Detail:

Saturday 21st January - A cloudy, showery day for all parts though showers mostly on the light side. These, as indicated above, falling as sleet or snow to around 1,000ft in the Highlands and around 2,000ft elsewhere, with some small accumlations. Westerly gales affecting all hills, with severe gales in the Highlands meaning blizzard conditions at times, Cloud generally down below summits, though some clearer spells may occur in the east. Cloud thickening in southern parts overnight, but some clear spells possible in the Highlands which may allow a frost in places.

Sunday 22nd January - A fairly similar day though a little milder in the south in the morning, so more likelihood of precipitation over summits in Wales falling as rain rather than sleet or snow, apart from the higher parts of Snowdonia. Showers still wintry elsewhere though. Winds should be a little lighter than on Saturday, especially in Wales, but gales should still be expected over Highland summits. The Highlands probably seeing the best chance of some bright spells and some cloud free summits. between showers, with Wales and much of Northern England, as well as Ireland, much cloudier with levels down below summits and quite dismal in the morning, though cloud lifting and breaking a bit in the afternoon as colder air works back in from the north again.


Further Outlook:

Cooler with a more north/northwesterly wind and further wintry showers on Monday, probably falling to lower levels than over the weekend. But then turning milder again for a while midweek. Continuing unsettled thereafter, still dominated by westerly winds, with cooler northwesterlies at times bringing further snow showers over hills, particularly in Scotland but temperatures overall close to normal

There are signs that towards the end of the month/early February we may see high pressure build over Scandinavia. If so, it's likely it'll turn much colder across the country, wth a predominantly east or southeasterly airflow, and that any precipitation we get falls as snow even to low levels. This likely to persist for a couple of weeks. Still plenty of uncertainty though. If the more westerly regime we've had so far persists, it's probable it will do so through the rest of winter and apart from further hill snow, there'll be no particularly cold or snowy period for most of the country this winter.


For the latest daily weather update covering most upland regions of Britain, more please visit The Mountain Weather Information Service website provided by Geoff Monk.

Met Office Mountain Forecasts are also available for the Highlands, Lake District, Peak District and Wales.

Avalanche news for the Highlands is provided by SAIS


Note: this is a personal interpretation of likely weather conditions on the UK hills and is intended for general guidance purposes only. Local conditions may vary and changes may occur suddenly and without warning. Extreme caution should always be exercised when venturing into the hills

TOI 11.15 GMT – 19th January 2012

Forecast by Andy Mayhew for Ukww

Ukww Disclaimer:- The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of this data. UKww (UK Weatherworld) is providing this data "as is" and UKww disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will UKww be liable to you or to any third party or any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data

[Dave K]

Quote

Warnings over raised avalanche risk in Scotland's hills

Avalanche forecasters have warned of a high risk of snow slides in Lochaber.

Danger levels in Glencoe, Creag Meagaidh, Southern and Northern Cairngorms have been rated as considerable.

The Sportscotland Avalanche Information Service (SAIS), which provides the forecasts, has reported four slides in the past 48 hours.

The Mountaineering Council of Scotland (MCofS) has alerted its members to the danger levels.

More than 60 avalanches have been recorded so far during the SAIS's latest season.

From December until about early spring, it provides forecasts for Creag Meagaidh, Glencoe, Lochaber, Northern Cairngorms and Southern Cairngorms.

http://www.bbc.co.uk...slands-16708391

[Toreador]

Big Dave, on 24 January 2012 - 21:12, said:

http://www.bbc.co.uk...slands-16708391

What a strange report. All areas except Lochaber are rated at Considerable (which is about average), with much of the Cairngorms being even lower than that. It's Lochaber that's rated as High (though only on eastern aspects).

Presumably a press release has been read and summarised by someone who doesn't know anything about the subject