[Andy Mayhew]

Mountain Forecast – Issued Thursday 26th January 2012

Rain and snow moving slowly eastwards

General Situation:

Still a fair bit of uncertainty over the weather this weekend. We start with high pressure to the SW and a strong block of high pressure over Scandinavia, which looks like nudging slowly westwards. Meanwhile low pressure sits off Greenland and associated fronts try to push in off the Atlantic, but there's some doubt as to how quickly they will do so and the extent to which precipitation at lower levels falls as rain, sleet or snow. Strong south, southwest or southeasterly winds across all upland areas with the best breaks in the cloud likely to be over central and eastern hills.


The Weekend in Detail:

Saturday 28th January - A bright, frosty, start across central and eastern hills, with a risk of some fog patches in places. However cloud increasing from the west with some rain, sleet and snow in Ireland and the Hebrides, pushing in through the morning to affect coastal hills in the West Highlands and later western parts of the Lake District and Snowdonia. This mostly light but some heavier rain likely across Ireland. A risk this may push further west in the afternoon towards the Pennines and Central Highlands, though precipitation probably then dying out in the evening. Cloudy for most upland areas but some clear and sunny spells to the east of the Pennines and in the East Highlands - a good (but chilly in the wind) day for the Cairngorms. Freezing level varying from below 1,000ft in the southern Pennines to nearer 2,000ft elsewhere and all parts feeling cold with a strong wind.

Sunday 29th January - Another frosty start in central and eastern parts and here too the best of the bright spells and a chance of cloud free summits through the morning and early afternoon. Once again strong, mainly southerly, winds producing quite a wind chill. However, thicker, lower, cloud, already bringing rain, sleet or snow over hills in the west - particularly in Wales and the West Highlands - spreading eastwards very slowly through the day and probably affecting most hills except the eastern Cairngorms and Angus glens, by evening. Snow mainly down to around 2,000ft though perhaps to lower levels in places, especially in England and eastern parts of Wales. Some uncertainty though on the timing of this and extent to which precipitation falls as snow.

Further Outlook:

Monday looks like seeing further rain, sleet and snow continuing across England and Wales, but drier and brighter conditions developing in the Highlands. Considerable uncertainty as to what level snow will fall to and how quickly it clears with some suggestions it may linger over central or eastern England into Tuesday, bringing a greater risk then of falling as snow to lower levels. Thereafter it currently looks like England and Wales will most probably come under a ridge of high pressure stretching SW to NE, with a spell of dry but cold and cloudy weather, whilst the Highlands, particularly the North and West, see slightly milder conditions, stronger winds and rain and hill snow at times. Some light snow flurries possible for eastern hills, coming in off the North Sea at times. Towards next weekend it looks like the south will remain colder but drier whilst the North and West Highlands in particular continue to see milder but wetter and windier conditions - though much uncertainty at this stage on how things will develop. There certainly remains a risk that some more significant widespread cold weather and snow may occur during the first couple of weeks of February.


For the latest daily weather update covering most upland regions of Britain, more please visit The Mountain Weather Information Service website provided by Geoff Monk.

Met Office Mountain Forecasts are also available for the Highlands, Lake District, Peak District and Wales.

Avalanche news for the Highlands is provided by SAIS


Note: this is a personal interpretation of likely weather conditions on the UK hills and is intended for general guidance purposes only. Local conditions may vary and changes may occur suddenly and without warning. Extreme caution should always be exercised when venturing into the hills

TOI 11.15 GMT – 26th January 2012

Forecast by Andy Mayhew for Ukww

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