Slight Risk of Isolated Thundery Showers & Hail NW England through to central regions 09Z-18Z
Another low risk outlook with slow moving surface trough expected to initiate convection primarily along outflow peripheries of any precip core. This over much of central UK by late morning. With weak shear and PV aloft we can, at best expect a sporadic rash of convective development with risk for some hail and thunder mixed in. Some constraints remain in place regarding instability today with mid levels fully laden with moisture slowing the rate that cloud tops can climb. A steady increase in cold outflow from any collective convection will almost certainly stabilise its own environment at some point today. This outlook probably doesn't warrant too much detail but still worth a heads up!
This post has been edited by Tony Gilbert: 27 January 2012 - 08:53