[Chris Alder]

Time for a new thread methinks given February is upon us and apart from the current chilly spell (I defy anyone to say its any harsher than that) winter for most part has been generally located about 3000miles north east of us.

So what will the potentially varying month of February bring? Cold, snow and ice or an early glimmer of Spring? Either way I'm sure the models will accurately predict it all!

[chrisips]

Is it me or is the latest GFS 12z a little less sure about the Milder Atlantic air winning through, seems to bring back an easterly by mid next week.

[Strider]

chrisips, on 01 February 2012 - 16:58, said:

Is it me or is the latest GFS 12z a little less sure about the Milder Atlantic air winning through, seems to bring back an easterly by mid next week.

Its a toothless easterly though as mild air will have flooded into the continent by then.

I believe any colder spell for mid/late feb will come from HP in Greenland which currently appears elusive in the reliable team frame.

In the immediate future GFS has all the ppn as Sat falling as rain.

[Dave W]

Chris Alder, on 01 February 2012 - 15:02, said:

Time for a new thread methinks given February is upon us and apart from the current chilly spell (I defy anyone to say its any harsher than that) winter for most part has been generally located about 3000miles north east of us.

So what will the potentially varying month of February bring? Cold, snow and ice or an early glimmer of Spring? Either way I'm sure the models will accurately predict it all!

Def harsher than that, we have temps of 0C with NE'ly winds of 20kts in the SE .. bitter by any standards. No, its def cold!

[Matt D]

Dave W, on 01 February 2012 - 17:08, said:

Def harsher than that, we have temps of 0C with NE'ly winds of 20kts in the SE .. bitter by any standards. No, its def cold!

Dec 2010 must have toughened some of the 'soft southerners' up

[Dave W]

Strider, on 01 February 2012 - 17:08, said:

Its a toothless easterly though as mild air will have flooded into the continent by then.

I believe any colder spell for mid/late feb will come from HP in Greenland which currently appears elusive in the reliable team frame.

In the immediate future GFS has all the ppn as Sat falling as rain.

Maybe not that toothless, as the GFS op has maxes of 0C by next Weds with 10-15kt Nely winds for us in the south with maxes of -6 to -9C on the near continent!

[chrisips]

Cheers guys, i am in no way an expert at model reading i would probably class myself as in the middle somewhere but i do try and interpret things before reading the experts thoughts, it helps at gaining more experience. I guess it just looked in my eyes that the S/Westerlies didn't come racing back as hard as previous runs, especially in the S/E.

[Strider]

ECM 12z op completely different from 00z with the easterly fighting back against the Atlantic and appearing to regain dominance over the UK.

[Andy Mayhew]

Just as we thought it was getting simpler, latest FAX throws up a cold front coming in from the east on Friday night and moving in to the East Midlands. And ECMWF keeps colder air over much of England through the weekend. Game's still on ..... I think those further east of here have a bigger risk of snow. But at this stage, less than 4 days away, I don't think anyone knows ....

I'm not even thinking about next week!

[PJB]

ECMWF and JMA both have a much slower progression which has been hinted at by thew EPS consistently. The 12Z ECMWF has a large swathe of snow across England moving SE away from the SOuth Coast over the weekend as the trough disrupts. The warm air occluding out. It then runs another cold pool close to the SE mid next week with more snow.

Clearly its not all decided yet !

[PJB]

ECWMF OP has flipped to being one of the coldest EPS members for London next week. Fair Mid EPS for the weekend, but becomes in the minority early next week.

[summer '85]

PJB, on 01 February 2012 - 07:19, said:

but all models now agreement on a collapse of the high and a reversion of the Atlantic.

Appears not. ECM 12z looks more blocked. UKMO 12z doesn't look that Atlantic dominated neither. Even GFS 12z op run has high pressure quickly returning.

This is still not clear cut this.

[HSEA2]

Andy Mayhew, on 01 February 2012 - 19:04, said:

Just as we thought it was getting simpler, latest FAX throws up a cold front coming in from the east on Friday night and moving in to the East Midlands. And ECMWF keeps colder air over much of England through the weekend. Game's still on ..... I think those further east of here have a bigger risk of snow. But at this stage, less than 4 days away, I don't think anyone knows ....

I'm not even thinking about next week!

In practice i find even with east winds snow is more likely in the west, such is the modifying effect of the north sea.



I think Worcester will be more likely to see snow than Cambridge, put it that way, whatever upper temps are.

[PJB]

summer, on 01 February 2012 - 20:58, said:

Appears not. ECM 12z looks more blocked. UKMO 12z doesn't look that Atlantic dominated neither. Even GFS 12z op run has high pressure quickly returning.

This is still not clear cut this.

lol - I usually speak to soon !

[NobbyRH]

HSEA2, on 01 February 2012 - 21:45, said:

In practice i find even with east winds snow is more likely in the west, such is the modifying effect of the north sea.



I think Worcester will be more likely to see snow than Cambridge, put it that way, whatever upper temps are.

[Uskys]

Met Office 12z Fax has no doubt that the milder air will win out to +120.

[PJB]

Much stronger Snow signal on the 18Z GFS from a more sharp and disrupting trough, more akin to ECMWF

[Strider]

GFS 18z op so far has a far stronger block from the east in synergy with ECM12z op.

[Dave W]

Large diffs on 18Z GFS parallel ensemble runs with cold air never moving away from the SE really and moving back west again by HH120.. mainly due to fact that 18Z was more bulish with the weak low on Friday in the southern N sea and this enhanced the easterly flow again as it sank south into NE France and secondly that it tended to allow the Atlantic low to disrupt and sink SE into N France on Sat/Sunday, so again pulling colder air back west afterwards.. it does appear that nothing is certain yet really after all thats been said (by me as well)! ;

[summer '85]

Could the problem be with the models is that it has the Atlantic coming up against an intense cold airmass just to the east? When was the last time the models have had to compute the outcome of such a scenario? That cold pool of sub -15C air is huge.