[JanetB138]

http://www.weatherch....org/charts.htm

Please could you have a look on the 72z run ( saturday) only there seems to be a 528dm running down the Western coasts as i was wondering if we were to get any light snow, as the secondary low is enwrapped with a 528dm.

Thanks in advance

[Paul Domaille]

Not sure what you mean by western coasts Janet.There is a fair chance of some white precipitation from the trough over Scotland, however further south it is rather doubtful. Partial thicknesses remain above the general "snow" guidelines and the air is of a more maritime rather than polar maritime nature.
Cheers,
Paul D

[JanetB138]

Paul Domaille, on 15 February 2012 - 21:35, said:

Not sure what you mean by western coasts Janet.There is a fair chance of some white precipitation from the trough over Scotland, however further south it is rather doubtful. Partial thicknesses remain above the general "snow" guidelines and the air is of a more maritime rather than polar maritime nature.
Cheers,
Paul D

On the 500 upper air chart there seems to be some associated lows showing 528 dam line which is enwrapped around a weakening front, which will possibly move towards the West of ireland and come into the West of the Northwest by saturday, I was just wondering whether this will affect my areas on lower levels or will it just go straight for the hills, because there is some heavy squalls on saturday. But from saturday night onwards the temperatures are becoming well below average at 2C, so it looks like there could be some icy rain turning wintry.

[Ian Williams]

After a cold and very snowy weekend up in NW and N Scotland, next week 00Z GFS run showing temps hitting 16C in the south east come Thursday and Friday

[Dave W]

Though it tended to be a mild outlier for much of the run post 23rd..

[JanetB138]

Weather Summary from 20 - 26th February

Staying unsettled all next week with a low pressure system moving into the North in a W - SW'ly flow over many areas.
It will stay mainly cloudy with outbreaks of rain, which will become heavy locally, and turn wintry over the Northern hills with added accumulations.

Staying drier in the South and East and becoming windy with gales or severe gales, especially in the Northwest, and continuing to stay unsettled here with cooler spells and more showers.
A possible risk of some hill snow in the North with added accumulations.
Temperatures will sty mild by day but becoming cooler at night with some frosts and icy patches for the N- NW.

[tivyboy]

Just been looking at the ensembles from gfs and and the thing thats stands out is how remarkably dry the south is prog to be right out to the end of the run, hardly any rain upuntill the 10th march at least

[Dave W]

Indeed .. Im really getting worried about this summer.. not because of drought but because it may become very zonal, unsettled and cool!

[Chris Alder]

Dave W, on 24 February 2012 - 11:17, said:

Indeed .. Im really getting worried about this summer.. not because of drought but because it may become very zonal, unsettled and cool!

Yes me too, I can see some very pleasent spells mid-March through mid-May, then a flat Jet running almost W-E straight through the middle of the UK during summer!

[Strider]

Hmmm, just taking a look at what the strat is up suggests to me we may get a cold period later in March/early April

[Uskys]

And still looks like some colder weather is predicted for mid-march.

[Sunspot]

I think Winter is over for most of the UK

[John Mason]

Is that the first - albeit titchy - Spanish Plume of the year? Check out CAPE & dewpoints on the GFS 00z for March 2nd....

Cheers - John

[BUTTERFLY]

Relax, winter is over - the Daily Express predicts 80 deg. F. (or perhaps it was 81 deg. F.) this week! About a mere 4 deg. F. higher than the March record, long overdue for breaking of course since it was recorded in 1968 (the record for early March being 75 deg. C. on 9th March 1948 so it is even higher than any daily redord for this time of year).

I only saw the headline so didn't see who's doing the predicting - has Piers Corbyn made a comeback? (or perhaps it is Piers Morgan).

There is though I think a forecast for more high temperatures early this week, but this is short lived and I expect that it is likely to be in the 16-17 deg. C. range, though if the conditions were just right I suppose it is not impossible 19 deg. C. could occur. Gordon Manley in his New Naturalist book "Climate and the British Scene", referred to a temperature of 67 deg. F. being recorded on the north wall of Gordon Castle, I think on or about 10th March 1826. He then stated that if such things can happen, then 70 deg. F. could be reached in Southern England, perhaps once every 200 years. So far the nearest approach to 70 deg. F., which is about 21.1 deg. C., has been 19.7 deg. C. in February 1998, which is still 1.4 deg. C. lower.

One always tends to feel that if exceptionally high temperatures are recorded "out of season", as it were, then we will pay for it later, with unusually cool temperatures in spring or summer; to some extent this happened in 2011, with the dry, sunny (and record warm) April being followed by a very wet May in Scotland and with the coolest summer sicne 1993 or locally (as in Northern Ireland) 1986, with all 3 months being cooler than normal, although it was of course followed by a very mild autumn (which was very wet in the north-west and dry in the east, as in 2011 as a whole).

[Dave W]

The 00Z op ECM has quite a change from about the 3rd March to a much more unsettled and rather colder set up than we have seen for a few weeks.. with some wintryness likely in places, even the end of Feb doesnt look overly warm though it should be pretty dry still.. but make the most of it I'd say, it does seem winter is set on a return!

Talk of 80F is of course ridiculous with no sign of anything like it on the models for the UK in the forseeable 2-3 week future

[BUTTERFLY]

Apart from 2nd March, when 20.2 deg. C. was recorded in 1977 on 2nd at Exeter Airport (see http://www.personal....er_in_march.htm) the earliest day of the year 20 deg. C. has been reached in Britain is either 9th March, when 22.2 deg. C. was recorded at Keswick, Cumbria, and at Colwyn Bay in Wales, both in 1929, according to http://www.personal....er_in_march.htm, or 8th, when 21.1 deg. C. i.e. c. 70 deg. F., was recorded in 1929, according to http://www.ukweather...-for-each-date/

The day after, 9th, reached 23.9 deg. C. in 1948, but otherwise 23 deg. C. has only been reached or exceeded in March on 12th (23.3 deg. C. at Haydon Bridge in Northumberland in 1957), 29th (25.0 deg. C. at Wakefield in Yorkshire in 1929, at Wakefield and Whitby in Yorkshire in 1965 and at both Cromer and Santon Downham in Suffolk in 1968 although only the 2 figures for the latter year are undisputed) and on 30th (23.9 deg. C. in 1929 at an unknown site or sites) - see http://www.ukweather...-for-each-date/

The chances of 80 deg. F. being recorded this week are thus somewhat less than Lord Lucan winning the Grand National on Shergar this year (though perhaps in view of recent claims, the odds on Lord Lucan re-appearing have shortened somewhat - he could always call another horse Shergar, so perhaps I should add "then visiting Reverend Ian Paisley who was acting as best man at the Pope's wedding").

[Dave W]

Must add that UKMo BOM 00Z op run was much more settled though than ECM 00Z, keeping H pressure in control through overall during next 10 day period.

[Ed.]

GFS looking distinctly chilly circa 10th March, okay we're touching FI territory but something worth keeping an eye on..Winter could be back with a vengeance for some.

[Dave K]

More importantly for us southerners, the only significant rainfall progged in the midterm is on the 5th/6th March, and if it were to be snow it wouldn't be much use at all.

[RichD]

Potential for fun:

http://expert-images...030500_2700.gif

or...

http://expert-images...030518_2706.gif

Of course neither will likely come off...!

Rich