Model Chat - Late winter 2011/12
Posted 15 February 2012 - 21:06
Please could you have a look on the 72z run ( saturday) only there seems to be a 528dm running down the Western coasts as i was wondering if we were to get any light snow, as the secondary low is enwrapped with a 528dm.
Thanks in advance
Posted 15 February 2012 - 21:35
Posted 16 February 2012 - 09:55
On the 500 upper air chart there seems to be some associated lows showing 528 dam line which is enwrapped around a weakening front, which will possibly move towards the West of ireland and come into the West of the Northwest by saturday, I was just wondering whether this will affect my areas on lower levels or will it just go straight for the hills, because there is some heavy squalls on saturday. But from saturday night onwards the temperatures are becoming well below average at 2C, so it looks like there could be some icy rain turning wintry.
Posted 17 February 2012 - 13:33
Staying unsettled all next week with a low pressure system moving into the North in a W - SW'ly flow over many areas.
It will stay mainly cloudy with outbreaks of rain, which will become heavy locally, and turn wintry over the Northern hills with added accumulations.
Staying drier in the South and East and becoming windy with gales or severe gales, especially in the Northwest, and continuing to stay unsettled here with cooler spells and more showers.
A possible risk of some hill snow in the North with added accumulations.
Temperatures will sty mild by day but becoming cooler at night with some frosts and icy patches for the N- NW.
Posted 24 February 2012 - 12:21
Yes me too, I can see some very pleasent spells mid-March through mid-May, then a flat Jet running almost W-E straight through the middle of the UK during summer!
Posted 26 February 2012 - 09:59
I only saw the headline so didn't see who's doing the predicting - has Piers Corbyn made a comeback? (or perhaps it is Piers Morgan).
There is though I think a forecast for more high temperatures early this week, but this is short lived and I expect that it is likely to be in the 16-17 deg. C. range, though if the conditions were just right I suppose it is not impossible 19 deg. C. could occur. Gordon Manley in his New Naturalist book "Climate and the British Scene", referred to a temperature of 67 deg. F. being recorded on the north wall of Gordon Castle, I think on or about 10th March 1826. He then stated that if such things can happen, then 70 deg. F. could be reached in Southern England, perhaps once every 200 years. So far the nearest approach to 70 deg. F., which is about 21.1 deg. C., has been 19.7 deg. C. in February 1998, which is still 1.4 deg. C. lower.
One always tends to feel that if exceptionally high temperatures are recorded "out of season", as it were, then we will pay for it later, with unusually cool temperatures in spring or summer; to some extent this happened in 2011, with the dry, sunny (and record warm) April being followed by a very wet May in Scotland and with the coolest summer sicne 1993 or locally (as in Northern Ireland) 1986, with all 3 months being cooler than normal, although it was of course followed by a very mild autumn (which was very wet in the north-west and dry in the east, as in 2011 as a whole).
Posted 26 February 2012 - 11:19
Talk of 80F is of course ridiculous with no sign of anything like it on the models for the UK in the forseeable 2-3 week future
Posted 26 February 2012 - 11:57
The day after, 9th, reached 23.9 deg. C. in 1948, but otherwise 23 deg. C. has only been reached or exceeded in March on 12th (23.3 deg. C. at Haydon Bridge in Northumberland in 1957), 29th (25.0 deg. C. at Wakefield in Yorkshire in 1929, at Wakefield and Whitby in Yorkshire in 1965 and at both Cromer and Santon Downham in Suffolk in 1968 although only the 2 figures for the latter year are undisputed) and on 30th (23.9 deg. C. in 1929 at an unknown site or sites) - see http://www.ukweather...-for-each-date/
The chances of 80 deg. F. being recorded this week are thus somewhat less than Lord Lucan winning the Grand National on Shergar this year (though perhaps in view of recent claims, the odds on Lord Lucan re-appearing have shortened somewhat - he could always call another horse Shergar, so perhaps I should add "then visiting Reverend Ian Paisley who was acting as best man at the Pope's wedding").