[Andy Mayhew]

I think so Kevin - they have enough problems with winter blocks anyway and this current scenario is fairly exceptional.

[PJB]

GFS Ensembles are certainly not as keen as they were to introduce milder air early next week, the deep trough over Europe persisting with S and SE england indirectly under its influence. Further fronts will try to break into this and disrupt so complicated for forecasters. ECMWF OP was generally colder than its EPS for the end of the period over the UK, but the EPS reveals 6 clusters by T+168 so very uncertain indeed !

[Peter H]

Looks to me like the rough trend that has been variously in the models for some time of high pressure to dominate this week+ in our vicinity, perhaps with easterlies in the south and westerlies in the north, is upon us. Beyond that is a long way off, but I can't see any signs of easterlies dominating the country, nor westerlies.

Perhaps of more note is that places that have missed rain look likely they will continue to do so for the forseeable future (which looks like it could be several weeks). Bad news for trout streams...

[summer '85]

Chilly Manchester 2m temperatures on the GFS 12z right through the run

http://www.wetterzen...chester_ens.png

[Dave W]

Worth saying the 12Z GFs op was a large mild outlier at HH850 for all latter part of run.. and an H pressure outlier too .
Also UKMO BOM was a lot colder overall than its 00Z counterpart. Also that ECM 12Z op just out stays cold in the east throughout the run to HH144 now as well at all levels below 850hpa BUT after that it became notably milder than the 00Z op solution with a upper SWly flow moving across the Uk and H to the south.

[Andy Mayhew]

Latest Fax Charts show the fronts coming in slightly slower from the west than those issued this morning, and then stalling over the Midlands around midnight ...

(not yet on wetterzentrale)

[Strider]

ECM12z op developing high pressure late in Greenland though.

NAE12z showing Saturday's front turning immediately to snow as soon as it works its way inland

http://expert-images...0412_2_0212.gif

[Martyn Wells]

I wonder if we will see another flip flop by the morning? At the moment it appears this is still a forecasters nightmare...

Some good model agreement on colder air not been mixed out as front stalls over the Midlands, which is a shift west from the previous run. Whilst there is some model agreement it would be nice now to see some intra run agreement; especially as this is in a reasonable forecast period.

[PJB]

I actually thought there was a fair degree of agreement. The GFS, UKMO GM and ECMWF all have the front slowing over the Midlands and stalling over the SE before dying out.
This should mean a fairly lengthy period of Snow for the Central and Eastern and then SE Parts of the UK, Probably heaviest falls in a zone from Birmingham up towards York across to Cambridge and down to North London, then up to Birmingham. Rain to the SW, though snow initially on the moors and over upland Wales before Wet bulbs rise.

Strider, on 02 February 2012 - 19:06, said:

ECM12z op developing high pressure late in Greenland though.

NAE12z showing Saturday's front turning immediately to snow as soon as it works its way inland

http://expert-images...0412_2_0212.gif

Yes - but its shown this at day 10 for 3/4 runs now - but it doesnt seem to move "up" the timeframe at all !

[Martyn Wells]

Ah right ok Paul; I was reading the last run as generally nudging the snow risk further west

[Chris Alder]

Interesting, GFS and to a slightly lesser extend keep it cold in the south and east right through next week. GFS has maxes in the south east on Tuesday of -3c for instance. I guess with that what snow falls in the south east over the weekend could stick around for a time.

[Chris Alder]

Certainly not an outlier either on the 00Z GFS run, the Ops run is right in the middle of a tight grouping in the London ensembles with the outlaying members mostly being colder than the tight grouping to boot, little hint it would appear of anything milder.

[Dave W]

Indeed , though as usual it seems the UKMO 00Z GM was milder overall by HH120

[Strider]

ECM 00z op has the easterly coming back as early as Tuesday with a fair bit of ensemble support - http://www.knmi.nl/e...agse/index.html

This thread should be pinned imo with the other one dropped

[JanetB138]

Weather Summary from 6 - 12th February

Quite changeable early next week with eastern areas likely to be dry nd cold with bright spells t times, but by night low cloud with freezing fog patches developing and be very slow to clear.
Whilst weastern areas will be milder with plenty of cloud and outbreaks of rain which continue to turn wintry over the hills with added accumulations in a NW'ly flow.
By mid week a deepening low will stall over Iceland bringing some near gales or severe gales close to the North of Scotland by the latter end of the week and will move towards Scandanavia.
Quite a lot of night frosts developing over the North and West with freezing fog patches at times which will be slow to clear.

[Martyn Wells]

12z NAE output shows 530DAM+ thicknesses over the midlands/west with a stripe of +2/+3 dps from Bristol up to Manchester between 18:00 and 00:00 tomorrow night. One model doesn't make a forecast, but if this pans out I'll be getting sleet horrid wet stuff tomorrow night in the Midlands. Thicknesses and negative DPs remain favourable for East Midlands east as the front pushes through though.

Time to wait patiently for GFS, UKMO and ECM output I think

[Martyn Wells]

Looks to me from a quick glance at the GFS 12z output that most of the Midlands will have a brief period of freezing rain before DPs rise above freezing and preciptitation turns back to rain tomorrow between 18:00 and 00:00

[Chris Alder]

Martyn Wells, on 03 February 2012 - 16:13, said:

Looks to me from a quick glance at the GFS 12z output that most of the Midlands will have a brief period of freezing rain before DPs rise above freezing and preciptitation turns back to rain tomorrow between 18:00 and 00:00

Yes looks looks like GFS has increased the progressiveness of the front slightly.

[Sam Jowett]

Wet bulb freezing level rises above 500m within the warm sector across the W Midlands according to 12Z GFS, yes, though I don't think that's much different from the last couple of runs. However, partial thicknesses stick to around a max of 130dam away from the S and SW and with light winds, snow cover from the cold side of the front and falling precip, I suspect an isothermal layer will allow wet snow to the surface for longer than the GFS 12Z might suggest. Much will depend on the speed of the occlusion process too... NAE 12Z does this quicker, resulting in lower partial thicknesses across the Midlands and a greater likelihood of the precip remaining as snow across the W Midlands. Presumably NAE *should* be modelling the frontal zone more accurately being a mesoscale model too. I'd be quite surprised to not see a few hours of snow from this front now... though I don't quite believe NAE's prediction of 12 hours!

[Strider]

Bitterly cold GFS 12z op throughout the run, it was one of the coolest solutions although the mean surface temp for Birmingham stands at 0c pretty much throughout.

ECM 12z op shows the mid-Atlantic ridge winning out in the short term, although this leads to a colder evolution thanks to height rises in Greenland.

UKMO generally tends more towards ECM and is the mildest of the 3, with a consistent W/SW flow for a time.