Model Chat - Late winter 2011/12
Posted 02 February 2012 - 08:55
Posted 02 February 2012 - 12:55
Perhaps of more note is that places that have missed rain look likely they will continue to do so for the forseeable future (which looks like it could be several weeks). Bad news for trout streams...
Posted 02 February 2012 - 18:30
Also UKMO BOM was a lot colder overall than its 00Z counterpart. Also that ECM 12Z op just out stays cold in the east throughout the run to HH144 now as well at all levels below 850hpa BUT after that it became notably milder than the 00Z op solution with a upper SWly flow moving across the Uk and H to the south.
Posted 02 February 2012 - 19:12
Some good model agreement on colder air not been mixed out as front stalls over the Midlands, which is a shift west from the previous run. Whilst there is some model agreement it would be nice now to see some intra run agreement; especially as this is in a reasonable forecast period.
Posted 02 February 2012 - 19:38
This should mean a fairly lengthy period of Snow for the Central and Eastern and then SE Parts of the UK, Probably heaviest falls in a zone from Birmingham up towards York across to Cambridge and down to North London, then up to Birmingham. Rain to the SW, though snow initially on the moors and over upland Wales before Wet bulbs rise.
NAE12z showing Saturday's front turning immediately to snow as soon as it works its way inland
Yes - but its shown this at day 10 for 3/4 runs now - but it doesnt seem to move "up" the timeframe at all !
Posted 03 February 2012 - 09:15
Posted 03 February 2012 - 09:18
Posted 03 February 2012 - 10:37
Quite changeable early next week with eastern areas likely to be dry nd cold with bright spells t times, but by night low cloud with freezing fog patches developing and be very slow to clear.
Whilst weastern areas will be milder with plenty of cloud and outbreaks of rain which continue to turn wintry over the hills with added accumulations in a NW'ly flow.
By mid week a deepening low will stall over Iceland bringing some near gales or severe gales close to the North of Scotland by the latter end of the week and will move towards Scandanavia.
Quite a lot of night frosts developing over the North and West with freezing fog patches at times which will be slow to clear.
Posted 03 February 2012 - 15:18
Time to wait patiently for GFS, UKMO and ECM output I think
Posted 03 February 2012 - 16:26
Yes looks looks like GFS has increased the progressiveness of the front slightly.
Posted 03 February 2012 - 17:05
Posted 03 February 2012 - 19:44
ECM 12z op shows the mid-Atlantic ridge winning out in the short term, although this leads to a colder evolution thanks to height rises in Greenland.
UKMO generally tends more towards ECM and is the mildest of the 3, with a consistent W/SW flow for a time.