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The current set-up reminds me somewhat of the 1st Feb 1942 set-up. That gave 15cm of snow in Manchester
http://www.wetterzen...00119420201.gif
Model Chat - Late winter 2011/12
#42
- Group: Executive
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Posted 04 February 2012 - 10:37
Notably cold GFS op at 06Z again with a block maintaining to the north much of the time and Ely over the south.
#43
Posted 04 February 2012 - 11:11
Yes, deep cold pool is advected west with an area of Developing snow akin to what happened in Dec2010... not much support from ECMWF at this stage.
#45
Posted 04 February 2012 - 12:14
about 25% of GFS 06Z Supported a similar cold pool moving west towards SOuthern England next weekend. It orignaties from Russia and NE Scaninavia - so quite problematic to forecast.
#47
Posted 04 February 2012 - 17:08
The return of the easterly is beginning to look inevitable as we move into mid-month.
#48
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- LocationBrecon Beacons, 330m ASL
Posted 04 February 2012 - 19:46
12z Fax shows high pressure from the east much stronger over the uk blocking the atlantic by tuesday with the 528dam pushed over to Bristol instead of, as the 00z fax predicted, over the wash.
#49
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Posted 04 February 2012 - 22:14
& the +120 12z fax from the met office shows an easterly seeming to assert and influence over the UK with the atlantic becoming a memory?
#50
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Posted 04 February 2012 - 22:23
It's interesting that the earlier met office forecast said that whatever pattern won out would likely last well into Feb. There was some recent suggestions in their forecasts and the models that that might not be the case, but this pattern is starting to look reasonably stubborn at the moment.
#51
Posted 04 February 2012 - 22:44
There were 6 clusters in the ECMWF EPS by T+144, with only about 20% supporting the operational. There was no real consensus though with a mixture of solutions, all generally showing some form of blocking to our East or Over the UK, but varying levels of cold depening on the position of the high and the evolution of trough disruptions to our WEst and NE.
Clearly there is considerable uncertainty again
Clearly there is considerable uncertainty again
#52
Posted 04 February 2012 - 23:21
Interesting that the 18Z NAE is way too slow with the frontal band... should still be snowing hard here at midnight with the back edge still over the Irish Sea. Must be over 200 miles out at T+6!
#53
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Posted 04 February 2012 - 23:29
Yes indeed Sam.. its all been faster than progged. They are saying officially (UKMO) its all going according to plan , in fact the NAE model wasnt all that good!
#55
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- LocationBrighton
Posted 05 February 2012 - 12:26
Another coldish set of runs on the 06Z GFS ensembles .. though always the SE/NW split with the colder air generally sticking across the SE quarter of the UK through the first week or so
#56
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- LocationBrecon Beacons, 330m ASL
Posted 05 February 2012 - 19:17
I can't see a great change in the meto-fax between the 00z & 12z to signify an explanation for the big change in the written forecast for the Brecon Beacons. This mornings outlook was for rather milder conditions persisting this week yet this evenings forecasts suggests ice days for this week because of freezing fog and temps below -5°C at night.... and snow flurries on friday.
#57
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- LocationBrighton
Posted 07 February 2012 - 11:44
Gone very quiet here recently!
A large cold outlier from 16th on the 06Z GFS I see!
A large cold outlier from 16th on the 06Z GFS I see!
#58
Posted 07 February 2012 - 12:02
Dave W, on 07 February 2012 - 11:44, said:
Gone very quiet here recently!
A large cold outlier from 16th on the 06Z GFS I see!
A large cold outlier from 16th on the 06Z GFS I see!
Thats a 'stonking' into FI.
Blimey, how times change. That run would have caused forum meltdown in previous years. Cold and snow ramper eye candy.
This post has been edited by John Robert Mellor: 07 February 2012 - 12:07
#59
Posted 07 February 2012 - 16:49
It's been pretty frustrating with the amount of chopping and changing recently. I can imagine the verification stats for Feb might be a tad below average...
Anyway it looks as though there is tentative support on UKMO 12z and GFS 12z op for a pressure rise in the Atlantic linking up with Greenland leading to a NW'rly possibly followed by a N'rly.
Anyway it looks as though there is tentative support on UKMO 12z and GFS 12z op for a pressure rise in the Atlantic linking up with Greenland leading to a NW'rly possibly followed by a N'rly.
#60
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Posted 07 February 2012 - 16:58
Strider, on 07 February 2012 - 16:49, said:
It's been pretty frustrating with the amount of chopping and changing recently. I can imagine the verification stats for Feb might be a tad below average...
Anyway it looks as though there is tentative support on UKMO 12z and GFS 12z op for a pressure rise in the Atlantic linking up with Greenland leading to a NW'rly possibly followed by a N'rly.
Anyway it looks as though there is tentative support on UKMO 12z and GFS 12z op for a pressure rise in the Atlantic linking up with Greenland leading to a NW'rly possibly followed by a N'rly.
Yes if UKMO and GFS were to verify a significant low would run north to south through the north sea, that would certainly make for an interesting event!
