[Strider]

Pretty similar from ECM12z op, haven't this much agreement for weeks!

[snow hope]

It still looks to me like there is a fair chance of continuing cold weather over the next couple of weeks in the models for various parts of the UK.

[cec101101]

In all fairness, Snow (can I call you that :-) ) it is Feb so pretty much what you'd expect?

I'm interested as to what the more 'clued up' among you think about GFS at the moment. I've been watching this site for c. 18 months now and at the moment pretty much every GFS run is an outlier (usually cold) compared to its emsembles. Just not seen it that far away before. What do you think guys?

[NobbyRH]

cec101101, on 07 February 2012 - 23:44, said:

In all fairness, Snow (can I call you that :-) ) it is Feb so pretty much what you'd expect?

I'm interested as to what the more 'clued up' among you think about GFS at the moment. I've been watching this site for c. 18 months now and at the moment pretty much every GFS run is an outlier (usually cold) compared to its emsembles. Just not seen it that far away before. What do you think guys?

[NobbyRH]

I would just like to point out that the member with user name Snow Hope is a member of the ukww exec and so is clued up about the weather.

[Dave K]

Has to be said that the model runs keep trying to introduce more average temperatures (not mild) here in the 5 to 8 day range but the next day it's still at the 5 to 8 day range and the day after that and so and so forth which has been the case since last week. Looking for significant synoptic change at more than T+72 seems to be a fool's errand at the moment.

[Dave W]

Its def looker milder in the 2nd half of Feb now acc to GFS ensembles atm.. as I said a few days ago nothing looking esp interesting really meteorologically .. only UKMO wants to pull colder air south now on the runs by HH144

[Strider]

Potentially interesting snow event on Thurs night into Fri showing up on NAE, especially for the East Midlands and Bristol areas

[Martyn Wells]

NAE 12z now going for a snow event across east and west midlands, and again for SE areas, moving into east wales through Friday. Ties in with the rather broad warning area included in today's MO warning. GFS 12z now starting to tell a similar story, with main snow threrat slightly more east of NAE. Again, freezing levels rise very sharply in a 50 mile swathe between rain and snow, so I'm guessing a lot of uncertainty exists. Enough precip in NAE and GFS to support UKMO weather warning though, should it fall as snow in the warning areas?

[Dave W]

After that i meant, going more towards FI, sorry
But really atm who knows.. ?

[Strider]

Dave W, on 08 February 2012 - 09:58, said:

Its def looker milder in the 2nd half of Feb now acc to GFS ensembles atm.. as I said a few days ago nothing looking esp interesting really meteorologically .. only UKMO wants to pull colder air south now on the runs by HH144

UKMO continues this pattern on 12z with support from GFS 12z op

[Uskys]

& Met Office fax have the high pushing the colder air back west over the UK at +72. A minor difference to the 00z & along with the front being pushed back has turned from warm to cold.

[Dave W]

Strider, on 08 February 2012 - 16:56, said:

UKMO continues this pattern on 12z with support from GFS 12z op

Yes. Both the JMA 12Z op & ECM 12Z op pull a low south much further east over Scandinavia .. but there is better agreement for this development in some form from the 12Z run overall

[Strider]

GFS 18z has a very chilly northerly now, ECM12z op was one of the mildest runs

[Chris Alder]

Is it me or is gfs 18z showing lows Saturday morning of -12c followed by maxes -4c and lows sunday morning of -14c over the south midlands, east Wales and southern England?

[Ian Williams]

Chris Alder, on 08 February 2012 - 22:42, said:

Is it me or is gfs 18z showing lows Saturday morning of -12c followed by maxes -4c and lows sunday morning of -14c over the south midlands, east Wales and southern England?

Thats what its showing Chris, Presumably they have modelled in snow cover

[PJB]

3 Clusters from the 12Z ECMWF of which the OP Run was in the milder less cyclonic cluster. The two other clusters were more akin to the GFS/UKMO Conus

[Strider]

The latest 120hr FAX shows a northerly yet no mention of especially cooler conditions in their further outlook...

[Dave W]

Much less cold 06Z run than the 00Z GFs op as the Nly develops as the H pressures more dominant across the Uk & the low further east. The 00Z GFs run was more like the 00Z UKMO GM solution and the 06Z like the 00Z ECM op solution.

[Chris Alder]

Dave W, on 09 February 2012 - 10:26, said:

Much less cold 06Z run than the 00Z GFs op as the Nly develops as the H pressures more dominant across the Uk & the low further east. The 00Z GFs run was more like the 00Z UKMO GM solution and the 06Z like the 00Z ECM op solution.

Looks like a continuation of flip flopping models on this low could be likely in the next day or two given there's a bit of a split in potential solutions.