[Chris Alder]

GFS 12Z starting to downgrade the really low temps shown in earlier runs for Saturday-Sunday in the south. Also a backtrack on the precip making it into southern counties tonight. Earlier runs had 5-7mm now its barely a couple of mm's.

[Dave K]

Seems to be much more agreement today on a change to a more Polar Maritime regime for us all at T+72 onwards...

[JanetB138]

Weekly Summary from 20 - 26th February

Staying unsettled again next week with some showers over the North and east and turning wintry over the hills in a NW'ly moderate to fresh airflow.
It will stay quite cold witn a risk of snow at lower levels especially over eastern counties, and continuing unsettled over Northern areas with plenty of cloud and showers which will add accumulations over the hills.
Frosts by night with icy patches where surface rain hasnt cleared and will spread slowly to the far south during the week.
Freezing fog patches will continue by night over many areas and be very slow to clear

[Strider]

Looks like the initial northerly has been flattened out a bit, but there does seem to be some agreement on a more potent reload around T180

[Jason Smith]

I'm surprised no one has mentioned the potential for a large snow event around 17-19th, I know it's a long way off but the % of it happening in this current model and forecast set-up is there. Time will tell! Personally we've dodged the White Snow bullet for a National White out this current cold spell quite a few times wi precipitation failing to deliver and not all areas of uk but I'm all eyes on 17th onwards! Time will tell?

[Dave W]

Not mentioned I think as its far too far away to take any notice of! I cant see anything especially anyway? Where are you looking ?

[NobbyRH]

There are indications post 190h of a large low pressure area descending from the NW. GFS 18z shows most of the country affected by snow. I know GFS is not the be all and end all, but it is giving an indication of possible outcomes.

[PJB]

The ECMWF EPS is in fairly good agreement of a return to more mobile Atlantic weather. The EPS MEan indicating both a return to higher rainfall and more normal temps.
This showing up in the EPS Clusters - with just two clusters at T_168 both showing a good degree of mobility

[Uskys]

I think any mild atlantic lows will be short lived, GFS is keen to build a blocking high during the 2nd half of the 06z and keep us in northerlies which gradually drag down the colder air.... this is in mind with the siberean high which has dominated for the last 3 weeks... which the meto makes history by early this week, so will another large high form before the equinox.

[Ed.]

Aye, i'm sticking to my guns re an increasingly potent Northerly, albeit following a generally milder interlude - which isn't too difficult following todays minimas!

This time it'll be the far north that'll see something slightly more seasonal, before the whole lot slips further south..Interesting times methinks

[Dave W]

It seems a more mobile Atlantic picture will try to develop but the main feature is a blocking H to the SW or west allowing a cool- but not cold -NWly flow for most parts. Dry in the south still esp.

[Strider]

Looking further ahead there's quite a large divergence between GFS and ECM as GFS develops a much chillier NW'rly thanks to higher pressure in the mid-Atlantic. Both models have decent support from their respective ensembles

[snow hope]

After a somwhat milder spell this week, the GFS 18z shows that we will enter another cooler/cold period next weekend for about 4 to 5 days with the 528 line down over the whole country by Sunday morning, lasting through to Wednesday. Long way off, but looking interesting.

[Howard Kirby]

GFS ensembles want to bring in a brief northerly plunge at the end of next weekend but apart from that not a great deal for cold fans to get excited about.

[Dave W]

UKMO GM and BOM were very diff to ECM 12Z op though with lows running across central areas regular and bringing colder air south in shots..

[PJB]

GFS and UKMO seems to have joined the ECMWF train of thought now,...

[Dave W]

I am a little worried that with H pressure seemingly progged again much of the time by GFS at least right into early March now we are going to see an unsettled mid-late Spring! Any rain will be needed here though, no doubt of that.

[PJB]

a fairly wet 12Z ECMWF, much less high pressure and some fairly active fronts coming in on a mobile and Unsettled SW airflow.

[Strider]

00z GFS and ensembles seem keener than most to really amplifly the NW'rly this weekend sending the -10c uppers flooding over the country for a short while. Could be a major (albeit temporary) snow accumulation for the north and Scotland

[PJB]

well it is February ... Overall the Message is one of mobility returning