[P.K.]

Seems to be a week of crazy invests. Just a few days ago there was a ST2.5 in the S Atl so far so it was actually in Argentina's AOR (12/0545 UTC 37.2S 46.9W ST2.5 INVEST).

Today attention has moved to the SE Pacific which isn't actually a TC basin either.

16/1745 UTC 9.9S 85.6W T1.0/1.0 INVEST
16/1145 UTC 10.1S 85.3W T1.0/1.0 INVEST
16/0545 UTC 8.9S 86.0W T1.0/1.0 INVEST
15/2345 UTC 9.4S 86.4W T1.0/1.0 INVEST

TXPS26 KNES 161815
TCSWSP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE

B. 16/1745Z

C. 9.9S

D. 85.6W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT=1.0 BASED ON .2+ BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=1.0. MET=1.0. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ




Not long since the recent TC in the Med also!

[scrapemedic]

This would be a good point to explain why its such a rarity. I know that the few TCs that do develope in the south pacific, don't follow simple conventions like they do in the atlantic. They seem to meander all over the place, some travelling west others south, heading off the the antartic. A description of how the formation of how these storms differ from other areas would be good too. If I am not asking too much.

[P.K.]

The SW Pacific where the TCs form is much warmer than the SE Pacific as shown by the TCHP and 26C isotherm depth maps below. I don't recall seeing anything like this in this region.

The advantage with the satellites now is we can see these forming in unusual locations. The N Atl in 2005 was a good example where we had several TCs form with lower than 26C SSTs as the upper air temps were cold enough and the shear low enough.

[P.K.]

scrapemedic, on 16 February 2012 - 21:57, said:

They seem to meander all over the place, some travelling west others south, heading off the the antartic.

Jasmine was unusual. I don't recall anything transferring back north from TCWC Wellington's AOR to RSMC Nadi's AOR before.

TCs meander all over the world though. Typically in this region it will be a SW to SE recurve although obviously this is rather a generalisation.