[Ian Williams]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1030 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012 VALID 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES... ...GULF COAST STATES... A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH /WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG UPPER JET/ OVER SOUTHWEST TX WILL PROGRESS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND INCREASINGLY TAKE ON A NEUTRAL/SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT REACHES THE LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...WHILE ALSO PHASING WITH AN ADDITIONAL IMPULSE OVER THE LOWER/MIDDLE MO VALLEY. NEAR/AHEAD OF AN ONGOING SQUALL LINE ACROSS SOUTHERN LA...A WARM FRONT AND AN ASSOCIATED MORE MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS WILL SLOWLY MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OF LA/SOUTHWEST AL...AS WELL AS THE FL PANHANDLE/SOUTHEAST AL/SOUTHWEST GA LATER TONIGHT. ACCORDINGLY...SURFACE DEWPOINTS ON THE ORDER OF 64-66 F /OR LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST/ WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO THREAT...WITH SHEAR/LOW-LEVEL SRH MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR EMBEDDED BOWS/POSSIBLE MESO-VORTICES AND PERHAPS A FEW SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE. AS THE PARENT CYCLONE SPREADS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD/DEEP LAYER WIND FIELD STRENGTHENS INTO TONIGHT...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF MS/AL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. WHILE A MORE MARGINALLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL EXIST WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT INLAND ACROSS THE REGION...AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IN THE FROM OF DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL LIKELY EXIST TONIGHT IN AREAS AS FAR E/NE AS FL PANHANDLE/SOUTHERN AL INTO SOUTH GA. ..GUYER/HURLBUT.. 02/18/2012

Several TVS`s in Louisiana at the moment
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This post has been edited by Ian Williams: 18 February 2012 - 20:29

[Ian Williams]

One tornado reported so far

Filtered Tornado Reports (CSV) (Raw Tornado CSV)(?)
Time		Location	County	State	Lat	Lon	Comments
1530		2 ESE RAYNE	ACADIA	LA	3023	9223	PUBLIC REPORTED FLOOR SHAKING AND FREIGHT TRAIN SOUND (LCH)
Filtered Hail Reports (CSV) (Raw Hail CSV)(?)
Time	Size	Location	County	State	Lat	Lon	Comments
1543	100	BREAUX BRIDGE	ST. MARTIN	LA	3028	9190	(LCH)
1635	100	PORT ALLEN	WEST BATON ROUGE	LA	3045	9121	NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL OBSERVED BY WEST BATON ROUGE SHERIFFS IN PORT ALLEN. (LIX)
Filtered Wind Reports (CSV) (Raw Wind CSV)(?)
Time	Speed	Location	County	State	Lat	Lon	Comments
1350	UNK	3 N SULPHUR	CALCASIEU	LA	3027	9336	POWER LINES BLOWN DOWN. (LCH)
1400	60	10 E GRAND LAKE	CAMERON	LA	3003	9310	(LCH)
1404	63	4 WNW GRAND LAKE	CAMERON	LA	3005	9333	(LCH)
1500	UNK	JENNINGS	JEFFERSON DAVIS	LA	3022	9266	A TREE WAS BLOWN ONTO A HOUSE ON SHANNON DRIVE AND POWER LINES WERE DOWNED. (LCH)
1510	UNK	LYONS POINT	ACADIA	LA	3009	9238	POWER POLES WERE BLOWN DOWN. (LCH)
1530	75	LAFAYETTE	LAFAYETTE	LA	3022	9203	KATC ESTIMATED 75 MPH WIND GUST ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF LAFAYETTE WITH THE BOW ECHO. (LCH)
1545	60	LAFAYETTE	LAFAYETTE	LA	3022	9203	PUBLIC REPORTED WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH ALONG AMBASSADOR CAFFREY BOULEVARD (LCH)

[Ian Williams]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 29
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN ALABAMA
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1150 AM UNTIL
500 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO 55 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF PENSACOLA
FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 28...

DISCUSSION...MESOLOW AND ASSOCIATED COMPACT SVR MCS CONTINUE TO
TRACK EAST ALONG A WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST LA. EXPECT THIS
DISTURBANCE TO MOVE ACROSS THE DELTA TO MOBILE BAY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS LARGER SYNOPTIC LOW TAKES FORM ACROSS THE WRN
GULF. WITH TRUE MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...OVERALL SVR STORM COVERAGE APPEARS TO HAVE
DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. DESPITE THIS
TREND...FORCED ASCENT WITH THE MESOLOW...AND ALONG THE WARM
FRONT...WILL CONTINUE TO ACT ON A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE THAT PARCELS BECOME SURFACE-BASED THIS AFTERNOON.
MORE THAN ADEQUATE SHEAR AND FORCING SHOULD PERSIST WITH THE
MESOSLOW AS IT SPREADS EAST TO SUPPORT EPISODES OF OCCASIONAL STORM
INTENSIFICATION AND A CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR
TWO.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.

[Ian Williams]

3 Tornado reports so far

Tornado Reports (CSV) (Raw Tornado CSV)(?)
Time		Location	County	State	Lat	Lon	Comments
1453		1 SW KLONDIKE	CAMERON	LA	3002	9264	A WEAK TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 14 AND 717 NEAR KLONDIKE ... RIPPED PART OF A METAL ROOF OFF A BARN ... SNAPPED A COUPLE OF TELEPHONE POLES AND TREES. THIS TORNAD (LCH)
1530		2 ESE RAYNE	ACADIA	LA	3023	9223	PUBLIC REPORTED FLOOR SHAKING AND FREIGHT TRAIN SOUND (LCH)
2210		GRAND BAY	MOBILE	AL	3048	8834	PUBLIC REPORT OF A TORANDO TOUCHDOWN NEAR GRAND BAY,AL. ALSO PRODUCED TREE DAMAGE. (MOB)