[Bazmundo]

Declared as Invest 92S a couple of days ago, and heading across the north of Madagascar with winds around 25-30kts. RSMC La Reunion have now issued their first bulletin (quote below) on Moderate Tropical Storm Irina as they agree on expected intensification in the Mozambique Channel, although a little later than NMFC Pearl Harbour who expect significant strengthening within 24-36hrs?

http://oiswww.eumets...IndianOcean.png

Quote

BULLETIN OF 26 FEBRUARY A LOCAL 4:51 p.m.:

THERE IS NO ALERT DURING THE MEETING, AND NO CYCLONE THREAT IS PLANNED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS
**************************************************

NATURE OF THIS TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

TROPICAL STORM MODERATE IRINA
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
POSITION ON 26 FEBRUARY TO 16 HOURS LOCAL: 13.8 SOUTH / EAST 50.9
(THREE EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DEGREES EAST)

DISTANCE RATING Reunion: 920 KM AREA: NORTH-NORTHWEST
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTHWEST 22 KM / H

HERE ARE THE POSITIONS AND INTENSITIES OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROVIDED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS:

DISTURBED AREA,
CENTER LOCATED IN 24H BY: 15.2 S / E 46.0

Moderate tropical storm,
CENTER LOCATED IN 48 HOURS PER: 16.3 S / E 42.9

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM,
CENTER LOCATED IN 72H BY: 16.4 S / E 41.3

TROPICAL CYCLONE,
CENTER LOCATED IN 96H BY: 16.8 S / E 41.0

INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE,
CENTER LOCATED IN BY 120H: 19.1 S / E 40.3

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[P.K.]

This got named quite quickly. Advisories were only started at 09Z (which in itself is unusual) with Madagascar actually naming it as of 09Z due to obs showing gale force winds.

WTIO30 FMEE 261305
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/11/20112012
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IRINA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/26 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8 S / 50.9 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: SE: SW: 300 NW: 310
34 KT NE: SE: SW: 130 NW: 240
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1001 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/27 00 UTC: 14.2 S / 48.2 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, INLAND
24H: 2012/02/27 12 UTC: 15.2 S / 46.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, DISTURBANCE
36H: 2012/02/28 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 44.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
48H: 2012/02/28 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 42.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/02/29 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 41.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2012/02/29 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 41.3 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/03/01 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 41.0 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2012/03/02 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 40.3 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=1.5
SYNOP REPORT FROM ANTALAHA (BETWEEN 05Z AND 09Z AND THEN AT 12Z),
SAMBAVA (AT 07Z THEN NO OBS) AND DIGO-SUAREZ (BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z
THEN NO OBS) SHOWN MEAN 10 MIN WINDS IN THE GALE FORCE RANGE (35/45
KT). CONSEQUENTLY, THE MADAGASCAR WEATHER SERVICES NAMED THE SYSTEM
IRINA AT 09Z. THOSE STRONG WINDS SEEMS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STONG BURST OF CONVECTION THAT OCCURED THIS MORNING JUST WEST OF THE
ESTIMATED LLCC. THIS CONVECTIVE FEATURES IS NOW COLLAPSING.
DESPITE THIS STRONG WINDS OBSERVED, THE CLOUD PATTERN OF IRINA IS
STILL MILES AWAY FROM A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM SIGNATURE ...
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THESUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT HAVE BUILT BACK TO THE SOUTH. IT UNDERGOES
A MODERATE EASTERLY CONSTRAINT SO THE CENTER IS ESTIMETED TO BE JUST
TO THE EAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS. THIS PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE
WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ON THIS TRACK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAKE
LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS OVER THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR
BETWEEN DIEGO-SUAREZ AND SAMBAVA (LIKELY NEAR IHARANA). ASSOCIATED
HEAVY RAINFALLS SHOULD AFFECT LARGE AREAS OF NORTHERN MADAGASCAR
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. RR24H IN THE 100-150 MM ARE LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE (LOWER SHEAR, HIGH
SST OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL) AND SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED.
BY THAT TIME, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE INFUENCED BY TWO CONTRADICTORY
STEERING FLOW; ONE ASSOCIATED WITH AN EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO ITS
NORTH AND INDUCED AN EASTERLY MOTION AND ANOTHER ONE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH AND INDUCED A WESTWARDS
MOTION. CONSEQUENTLY, THE TRACK SHOULD SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BEYOND, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE COULD WEAKEN
AND ALLOW A MORE POLEWARDS TRACK.
INHABITANTS OF THE NORTHEASTERN COASTS OF MADAGASCAR AND THE NORTHERN
CHANNEL AREA (INCLUDING THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO, THE NORTHWESTERN
COASTS OF MADAGASCAR AND THE MOZAMBIQUE COASTS) SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.=