: USA - Moderate Risk - NE/KS & OK/AR/MO/TN - 28-29th Feb 12 -

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USA - Moderate Risk - NE/KS & OK/AR/MO/TN - 28-29th Feb 12

#1 User is offline   Bazmundo 

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Posted 28 February 2012 - 11:55

Attached Image: day1otlk_1200.gifAttached Image: day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif

A particularly strong mid level jet with risks for the TP over the NE/KS border and a very dynamic threat for OK/AR north-eastwards. Was considering AR up until last night from a virtual chase perspective, but it would be going into the dark and looks to become a nasty line-out, so would probably plump for the earlier stuff over Nrn KS into NE.

Mid-level jet above 90kts looks really potent late in the period, instability better further south but appears conditional on prior cloud cover? Could get quite nasty for Dixie Alley overnight. Posted Image

Attached Image: GFS_3_2012022806_F24_WSPD_700_MB.pngAttached Image: GFS_3_2012022806_F21_PCPIN_6_HR.png

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#2 User is offline   Weather Monkey 

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Posted 28 February 2012 - 22:11

A tornado watch has now been issued for north central KS and south Central NE. http://www.spc.noaa....tch/ww0039.html

I am just watching a couple of the video feeds from severe studios and also the Omaha Twister chasers at tornadovideos.net - some nice cloud vistas!

This post has been edited by Weather Monkey: 28 February 2012 - 22:12

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#3 User is offline   Ian Williams 

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Posted 28 February 2012 - 23:10

Interesting that there`s around 3 cells gone up ahead of the cold front feeding off the outflow - close to O`Neil SE Nebraska right now

uploads/monthly_02_2012/post-30656-0-52737500-1330470608_thumb.gif

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#4 User is offline   Bazmundo 

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Posted 28 February 2012 - 23:16

Just watching the 'Topeka Storm Intercept Team' running at the cell in N Ctl Kansas: http://chase.tornado...ges/full_screen
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#5 User is offline   Bazmundo 

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Posted 28 February 2012 - 23:30

Got a strong couplet on SRV1 with a TVS on it now, though that feed keeps crashing due to 300+ viewers. More storms firing south of this one, where the Meso Analysis page shows best 3hr CAPE change - though they may not survive the oncoming winds from due west rounding the base of the low.

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#6 User is offline   Ian Williams 

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Posted 28 February 2012 - 23:41

Yes TVS on Jewel Co, KS, pity gotta go bed up at 5 for work :(

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This post has been edited by Ian Williams: 28 February 2012 - 23:41

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#7 User is offline   Bazmundo 

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Posted 28 February 2012 - 23:55

It's heading for Belleville, north of Concordia (where we had the overnight 28C in 2010). Just realised from your attachment what this is on about (thought the guy locating the storm was drunk!):

Quote

549 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CST FOR
SOUTHWESTERN REPUBLIC COUNTY...

AT 544 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR NORWAY...OR 11
MILES NORTHWEST OF CONCORDIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORWAY.
SCANDIA.



Posted Image
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#8 User is offline   Bazmundo 

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Posted 29 February 2012 - 00:25

It just split right over the top of Belleville.
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#9 User is offline   Weather Monkey 

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Posted 29 February 2012 - 06:15

Not so good news coming out of Harveyville, KS (SW of Topeka) - town seems to have taken a hit just after 2100 local time. Some tweets saying 40% of structures in the small town have been damaged. Says all people have now been accounted for.

A few twitter pics on this account of up turned mobile homes and cars. http://yfrog.com/oehxiayj

This post has been edited by Weather Monkey: 29 February 2012 - 06:20

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#10 User is offline   Ian Williams 

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Posted 29 February 2012 - 07:11

Reports of one critically injured

Tornado Reports (CSV) (Raw Tornado CSV)(?)
TimeLocationCountyStateLatLonComments
22139 WSW GANDY LOGAN NE414210062OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED A TORNADO 9 MILES WSW OF GANDY. (LBF)
00436 SSW HUTCHINSON RENO KS37999796STORM CHASER REPORTED A TORNADO LASTING ABOUT 5 MINUTES FROM 643 TO 648 PM. (ICT)
0302HARVEYVILLE WABAUNSEE KS38799596PRELIMINARY INFORMATION FROM INCIDENT COMMAND ... POSSIBLE TORNADO ... 1 CRITICAL INJURY ... SEVERAL MINOR INJURIES ... NUMEROUS HOMES DESTROYED ... ALL PEOPLE ACCOUNTED FOR IN T (TOP)
05155 WSW JERICO SPRINGS BARTON MO37599409TREES DOWN. (SGF)
05562 SW BUFFALO DALLAS MO376293121 HOUSE DESTROYED ALONG WITH 3 TURKEY BARNS. DAMAGE ALONG WILDLIFE RD. (SGF)
06252 SW LEBANON LACLEDE MO37669269(SGF)
06282 SW LEBANON LACLEDE MO37669269TORNADO ON THE GROUND JUST SW OF LEBANON (SGF)

This post has been edited by Ian Williams: 29 February 2012 - 07:12

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#11 User is offline   Bazmundo 

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Posted 29 February 2012 - 10:53

State of emergency declared for Harleyville, and the threat continues for parts of Srn IL into ID, TN and KY with the area further southwest over AR capped. Very potent QLCS on radar with some storms warned as already having caused structural damage. From the Meso Disco it looks as though the embedded supercells have some longevity about them too.

Quote

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0178
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/NRN AR...SERN MO...SRN IL...SWRN
IND...WRN KY AND NWRN TN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 43...44...45...

VALID 290953Z - 291130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
43...44...45...CONTINUES.

AT 0925Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA CONTINUED TO SHOW A
FAST MOVING LINE OF TSTMS /ENE AT 50+ KT/...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS...EXTENDING FROM SWRN IL SWWD THROUGH SERN MO
TO NORTH CENTRAL-NWRN AR. RADAR TRENDS INDICATED THE NRN EXTENT OF
THE TSTMS WILL EXIT THE SWRN IND PORTION OF WW 44 BY 12Z...AND THE
WRN KY PORTION BY 13Z. A NEW WW WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED BY THOSE
TIMES BASED ON DETAILS PROVIDED IN SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 177.

THE ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE QLCS REMAINS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG AND STRONGLY SHEARED
/EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50-65 KT AND EFFECTIVE SRH OF 500-750 M2
PER S2/. THESE PARAMETERS DICTATE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES DURING THE PRE-DAWN TIME
PERIOD AS THE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE.

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#12 User is offline   Bazmundo 

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Posted 29 February 2012 - 14:16

Twitter/SPC reports of major damage from a suspected tornado through Newburgh, Srn Indiana, just after 12z. Rescue teams are responding.

Edit - also major damage and one confirmed fatality in Branson, MO, overnight.
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#13 User is offline   Bazmundo 

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Posted 29 February 2012 - 15:04

Confirmed reports of three fatalities and major damage from a suspected tornado in Harrisburg, Saline Co, IL, earlier too.
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#14 User is offline   JOKE_SNOW 

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Posted 29 February 2012 - 15:11

Some pics coming out of Harrisburg, Il
3 confirmed killed, 40 missing (unconfirmed)

Attached Image: t.jpg
Attached Image: t2.jpg
Attached Image: t3.jpg
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#15 User is offline   Cindy 

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Posted 29 February 2012 - 16:37

Reports are now 13 dead
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#16 User is offline   Chris Alder 

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Posted 29 February 2012 - 17:05

Given last years awful death tolls, this really isn't a great start to the year!
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#17 User is offline   ChaserUK 

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Posted 29 February 2012 - 17:13

Dreadful start to the year I guess - 10 confirmed dead now!

http://www.bbc.co.uk...canada-17210325
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#18 User is offline   Cindy 

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Posted 29 February 2012 - 17:21

10 in Illinois Matt, 3 in Missouri.
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