[Nigel Bolton]

Daylight is lenghtening
The sunshine is strengthening
Higher temperatures on their way?
What do the models want to say?

Will they agree or be in doubt?
Wil we continue with the drought?
Here's for you to have your chat
Synoptics is where it's really at.

N.

[Dave W]

Nice one, maybe we should always start new model chat with a poem

[Chris Alder]

Apart from a few chilly days coming up from this weekend I can't see anything hugely interesting happening over during the first half of March. CET mayeb be slightly below average has we head into mid March buy not by much more than .5C IMO.

[Dave W]

Looks like quite a pattern change may be in the offing by the start of March tercile 2 .. esp acc to ECM 12Z run, as it becomes more unsettled than weve seen for some time

[Chris Alder]

This morning GFS develops a nasty little low of southern England at the tailend of the weekend with 30-40mm falling in coastal areas. Will be interesting to see if this RF actually materialises.

[Dave W]

Yes it has 80mph l6 winds on the northern flank .. could reach the surface in gusts across the SW

[John Robert Mellor]

Chris Alder, on 02 March 2012 - 10:38, said:

This morning GFS develops a nasty little low of southern England at the tailend of the weekend with 30-40mm falling in coastal areas. Will be interesting to see if this RF actually materialises.

UKMO has had this potential on its cards for the past couple of days so its not a 'GFS exclusive'!

[PJB]

The GFS is considerably more developed than the NAE/Hirlam at 12Z Sunday. The 12Z UKMO GM is the most similar but even that is not quite as devleoped. Around 20% of this mornings ECWMF EPS supported this more developed scenario. However for 48 hrs ahead there is considerable uncertainty

[Dave W]

Deep GFS 18Z run .. 80mph winds possible in gusts.. storm winds through the Channel .. large temp differences.. all in all quite a lively deevelopment for the south

[Rich T 2]

Still a big difference between GFS and ECM forecasts for Sunday's low across the south. Met Office has moved more towards the deeper low indicated by GFS. Still can't see it being quite as intense as it suggests IMO, though time will tell.

[Dave W]

May start a seperate thread for the low pressure development in south tomorrow.. but agreement is low atm on its development intra model.. even 24 hours away

[Dave W]

UKMO NAE has some over the Wash area but i think its more likely to be sleet in the area around N Hants and N Sussx, possibly snow over high ground but theres still considerably uncertainity in the exact developments, NAE 06Z keeps it more as a frontal wave structure whilst GFS is more keener on a more discrete low pressure area developing.. but more general agreement now from models on it being about 1007mb over Kent by late afternoon

[Ian Williams]

Just noticed weatheronlines new GFS ENS cluster 20 member`s area - below is an example

http://www.weatheron...=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

uploads/monthly_03_2012/post-30656-0-16188600-1330790118_thumb.gifuploads/monthly_03_2012/post-30656-0-99931000-1330790120_thumb.gifuploads/monthly_03_2012/post-30656-0-18432000-1330790126_thumb.gifuploads/monthly_03_2012/post-30656-0-41789000-1330790130_thumb.gif

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This post has been edited by Ian Williams: 03 March 2012 - 15:57

[Chris Alder]

After yesterdays reminder of winter and that it can rain in the south it looks like the week will see it being increaseingly dominated by high pressure moving up from the south west.

Could be an even earlier start to Spring proper than last year if these spells persist. As usual my only concern is that an increasing influence of the Azores high now means its less likely to make an appearence and hang around thoughout summer!

[Howard Kirby]

Chris Alder, on 05 March 2012 - 11:30, said:

After yesterdays reminder of winter and that it can rain in the south it looks like the week will see it being increaseingly dominated by high pressure moving up from the south west.

Could be an even earlier start to Spring proper than last year if these spells persist. As usual my only concern is that an increasing influence of the Azores high now means its less likely to make an appearence and hang around thoughout summer!

The other concern apart from what Chris said is the continual lack of rainfall over areas that need it. Looks like another below average month on the cards over much of central and southern England.

[John Mason]

There's a kinda pattern starting to emerge here..... is Spring becoming the new Summer?

Seriously considering adding another 50-gallon water-butt to my system, even over here where it has been wet enough to date. That will give a 200-gallon storage capacity.

Cheers - John